ME-Gov: Mitchell Trails LePage by 14 Points

Public Policy Polling (9/2-6, likely voters, no trend lines):

Libby Mitchell (D): 29

Paul LePage (R): 43

Eliot Cutler (I): 11

Shawn Moody (I): 5

Kevin Scott (I): 1

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Good grief:

The thing drivings the GOP poll advantage in Maine are the same we’re seeing everywhere: a unified Republican base, a lack of interest from Democratic voters, a strong GOP lean with independents, and the specter of an unpopular Democratic President and Governor hanging over the heads of the party’s candidates.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before:

The same depressed Democratic interest that helped sink the party in the Massachusetts Senate election, as well as last fall’s races for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia, is showing itself in Maine. We find those likely to vote in the state supported Barack Obama by a 7 point margin in 2008, in contrast to his actual 17 point victory there. That enthusiasm gap contributes a lot to the margin of LePage’s lead but make no mistake- with him winning 76% of McCain voters and Mitchell at only 52% with Obama’s he’d be in the lead even if the electorate looked the same as in 2008.

UPDATE: The DGA is up with a TV spot hitting LePage on his environmental protection policies (or lack thereof).

37 thoughts on “ME-Gov: Mitchell Trails LePage by 14 Points”

  1. in a year like this can a teabagger like Paul LePage be winning. Shame, there was this girl I liked last year who’s going to the College of Atlantic up in that state. She’s very liberal and a big environmentalist as well. Feeling sorry for her that she’ll probably have a teabagger who wants to dismantle environmental protections as her governor for the next 4 years.

    The DGA and the RGA ain’t sitting on their butts here either. Their jumping straight into the action.

  3. I haven’t done the research, but I’m almost positive that that has never been the case before in what was once the most Republican area of the country. Despite the imbalance in the House (22-0) and Senate (8-4) delegations, Republicans and Democrats currently control 3 governorships each in the region. Of the three Republican seats, RI’s a goner and CT looks like its heading that way, while Vermont looks like a tossup. For the Democratic seats, NH is a likely hold and Deval Patrick has yet to trail in a poll in MA. That leaves Maine as the best opportunity for the GOP to hold a New England governorship.

    LePage just looks like a classic Mainer, doesn’t he?

  4. it might be a good idea to watch cutler.  maine doesn’t have any problem with electing a left wing governor and what the dems need now is someone with the same policies, but better packaging.  

  5. Don’t worry guys, there is nothing to see here, clearly we are going to win this race and clean up so many others.

    But seriously, this is beyond sad.  A fringe far right winger like LePage winning in basically a walk?  I shudder to think what these right wingers are going to do in the next 2 years.

  6. What I want to know is what a hypothetical LePage victory would have on Olympia Snowe’s election prospects in 2012.  I suspect that a Governor LePage would motivate the Tea Party element in Maine to launch primary challenge that could easily find national financing.  

Comments are closed.