DE-Sen: O’Donnell Leads Castle in New PPP Poll

Public Policy Polling (9/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

Christine O’Donnell (R): 47

Mike Castle (R): 44

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Holy shit, man walks on fucking moon.

And the House nums:

Glen Urqhart (R): 50

Michele Rollins (R): 38

Rose Izzo (R): 3

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±3.8%)

An Urqhart win would be something of an upset here, since Rollins won the backing of the state GOP. Both are richie riches, though, so I can’t say who I’d prefer to see Dem John Carney face in November.

UPDATE: Earlier this evening, we asked on Twitter: If Mike Castle were to lose the DE-Sen primary, would the DE-AL GOP primary winner step aside and let Castle run for re-election to the House?

227 thoughts on “DE-Sen: O’Donnell Leads Castle in New PPP Poll”

  1. Urquahrt leads Rollins, 50-38. That does not surprise me. Her campaign seemed to lack energy. For those of you who were concerned, yes, I am breathing now and trying to find ways of discrediting the PPP poll and making a list for the liquor store.  

  2. In the Republican House Primary for Delaware at large Glen Urquhart leads Michele Rollins 50-38% with Rose Izzo way back at 3%.

    I don’t know much about this race but Urquhart leads with liberals and conservatives and Rollins leads with moderates.

  3. this could create a self fulfilling prophecy. How many people do you think there are who would only vote for castle because odonnell is seen as throwing away a vote?  5% of the electorate?  10%?  it seems like a real race now, and even if this poll is completely false, it will still be the driving dynamic going into tuesday most likely.

  4. With the RINO, establishment-backed incumbent having to fend off a right-wing, grassroots-y challenger. A poll conducted two weeks prior to primary day showed Laffey up 17 points (!) over Chafee. Ultimately, the rank-and-file woke up and Chafee prevailed by 8.

  5. Thank you Sarah! Thank You O’Donnell supporters. I kid you not I literally just walked out of my house and yelled thank you Jesus! Not even playing I swear I did. I live in the middle of nowhere and no one heard me but still. Oh Beau Biden must be kicking himself right now. Well you deserve it Beau.  

  6. If O’Donnell really wins the primary, it will be time to post a new tune for Swing State: “I Know that My Redeemer Liveth” from Handel’s “Messiah”!

  7. a lot of things happened over the course of this poll including a Sarah endorsement and everything else. Will the momentum last? Even if not it is clear O’Donnell is a serious candidate now, if she does go write in I can see her getting a significant number of votes to make this thing competitive for Coons. Also I read a blog that said the state party may actually back Coons over O’Donnell. It was a right leaning one but still.  

  8. …O’Donnell.  I’d be shocked if he did.  Castle is the old school Rockefeller Republican who surely has zero respect personally or politically for someone like O’Donnell.  I bet he at least respects Coons, because everyone does.  And he’s retired permanently if he loses on Tuesday, he has no political future to protect that would be destroyed by endorsing Coons.

  9. The local newspapers and the NRSC are in full battle mode, and this poll will only further motivate moderates to get out and vote on Tuesday.

    However I wonder if this will hurt Castle even when he wins.  I wonder if this will make people see him differently in that he could barely beat a nutter of a candidate and needed a full court press from the NRSC and local media to drag him to a narrow win.  

    Will folks start seeing him as old, tired and give Coons a real look as politically moderate, but with the ability to build seniority for the next 30 years?

    Will the O’Donnell supporters stay home in November? Castle and the NRSC didn’t pull no punches in it’s counter-attack.

    Assuming De has a sore loser law, will the TPX try and run a third candidate? Could O’Donnell run a write-in campaign?  

  10. I think the one poll that included a Carney/Urquhart matchup had him doing about as well as Rollins (who isn’t self-funding, by the way — she just has a rolodex full of her fellow rich people to donate to her), but Urquhart is the conservative in the race who’s dragged Rollins to the right in the primary. He doesn’t seem to have much appeal beyond the Republican base.

  11. DE is over anyway now. O’Donnell seems to have enough support now that she will run a third party write in campaign now. That plus the damage that has been done to Castle ends this one even in Castle wins Tuesday.  

  12. would be that Chris Coons, the one person that actually deserves the Senate seat, would win it. Not Mike Castle, because it’s “his turn”, not Beau Biden, because it was his dad’s seat (but he’ll just wait four years for Castle to retire kthxbye), but the one guy that’s actually stuck his neck out when nobody else would dare challenge the “Delaware Way” and ran.

  13. Regarding the above, even if Castle did lose and try to get back on the House ticket (which, as others have said, I think is unlikely; he seemed pretty inclined either to the Senate or to retire, and if he outright loses the primary, I think he’ll be smarting pretty bad), I think that would make him look kind of bad (tried to move up, failed, made a backroom deal to keep his old job).

  14. Ayotte 37, Lamontagne 30, Bill Binnie 13, Jim Bender 12.

    So how do you feel about spending $6 million to be tied for third, Bill?

  15. Ya’ll know im desperate.

    1. I can’t imagine OD getting 39% of liberal voters

    2. 10% of moderates are undecided, less than the 7% of Conservatives

  16. is that this one primary could determine who wins the senate.  it’s possible for the republicans to win 10 seats now to reclaim the senate, but 12, this late would be more seats won in a single election since 1980

  17. Looking quickly at his bio, I think this would be the first race Castle ever lost in 40 years of public service. If this pans out, it would be quite a sad and inglorious end to his career.

    I’m pretty sure he’d just fade away and not even make an endorsement should he lose; at least it’s a good market to buy down in Florida.

  18. It wasn’t just Palin and DeMint endorsing her (although I figured they wouldn’t have done so without some hint she was going to win), it was also that Limbaugh and Hannity both are clearly backing her as well.

    But it makes me sad that a loathsome figure like Christine O’Donnell can be the nominee of a major party and beat out a halfway respectable Republican like Castle. I know it probably says more about how much the Republican party has shrunk in Delaware, but I just can’t believe anyone would turn out for thie woman. If I were in Delaware, I’d be tempted to register Republican just to vote for Castle and prevent her from having any triumph.

    That said, our Republican commentators who are holding out any hope on this one are delusional, sorry to say. She’s got the momentum, and Castle supporters are going to be dispirited bunch come tomorrow.  

  19. This should serve as a valuable lesson to the GOP. You cannot unring the bell after you’ve catered to a seething, activist base that bristles at the idea of a relative moderate, even if he’s a well-established, many times elected figure in liberal Delaware.  

  20. Unbelievable.  I had figured O’Donnell would be lucky to get a third of the vote.  Even if Castle does end up winning with like 55% of the vote that’s still a huge surprise, and a ridiculously low score from a long-term congressman and former governor.

    I can’t believe that Delaware Republicans have so truly gone over the edge that they would prefer a perennial candidate to their sole representative in Congress.

  21. This isn’t actually ‘that’ big of a surprise, about a week and a half or so ago the Tea Party did a poll showing it 44-38 in favor of Castle.  Basicly in that time O’Donnell got better known (thanks in no small part to Castle’s huge negative ad campaign, that clearly backfired) and went from 38 to 47, while Castle stayed at the same 44 he had all along.  Since he’s probably the best known politician in the state, its hard to see a bunch of voters suddenly switching to him at the last minute.  I think O’Donnell is going to keep gaining, she could end up winning this thing by a fair margin, with Castle not being able to get above 44. As a bigtime O’Donnell fan, I hope so anyway 🙂 .  

  22. Saving the Democratic Senate majority one seat at a time! Haven’t read other comments yet so likely others have said this but since PPP were rewarded for going out on a limb in Florida am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt here. I guess teh crazy extends to every state which is why no teabagger will stand aside for Castle in the House race either.

  23. If this poll is accurate, and I have nothing but respeot for PPP so I don’t doubt their work, I am scratching my head on how the Delaware Republican party could support O’Donnell over Castle.  Castle is an establishment within Delaware, and his nomination would have given the Republicans an excellent opportunity to pick up a seat in a blue state.  O’Donnell has almost no chance of defeating Coons in the general election.  In addition, I think Castle is a rather good fit amongst Delaware Republicans.

    If Castle wins the primary, he might be bloodied, giving Coons a small opportunity to surge.  If he loses, I’d rank this seat as “Likely Dem” in a matchup between Coons and O’Donnell (I’d almost put it as “Safe Dem”).

    Teabaggers gone wild.  We should have a video on this phenomena.

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