Senate Cattle Call (September 2010)

It’s high time that we dust off our community cattle calls – we haven’t put up a thread like this since April. Whoops! But I can assure you that this won’t be our last cattle call of the election season.

The traditional rules still apply: In the comments, rank the Senate seats that are up this year in order of likelihood of flipping from one party to the other. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. Have at it!

68 thoughts on “Senate Cattle Call (September 2010)”

  1. PARTIES FLIP

    North Dakota

    Arkansas

    Indiana

    Delaware

    Pennsylvania

    Colorado

    Kentucky

    Illinois

    Wisconsin

    PARTIES RETAIN

    California

    Washington

    Florida

    Nevada

    Missouri

    Ohio

    West Virginia

    New Hampshire

    Connecticut

    Alaska

    North Carolina

    Louisiana

    New York (Gillibrand)

    Oregon

    Iowa

    Georgia

    Arizona

    Maryland

    Kansas

    Alabama

    Oklahoma

    Hawaii

    South Carolina

    Utah

    Idaho

    Vermont

    New York (Schumer)

    South Dakota

     

  2. 1. North Dakota

    2. Arkansas

    3. Indiana

    4. Delaware

    5. Pennsylvania

    6. Colorado

    7. Kentucky

    8. Florida-with Crist

    9. Illinois

    10. Wisconsin

    11. Nevada

    12. Missouri

    13. Washington

    14. California

    15. Ohio

    16. Alaska

    17. North Carolina

    18. New Hampshire

    19. Connecticut

    20. Louisiana

    21. West Virginia

    22. New York (Gillibrand)

    23. Oregon

    24. Iowa

    25. Georgia

    26. Arizona

    27. Maryland

    28. Utah

    29. Kansas

    30. Alabama

    31. Oklahoma

    32. South Carolina

    33. Idaho

    34. Vermont

    35. New York (Schumer)

    36. Hawaii

    37. South Dakota

    21 Male Democrat, TX 13

  3. 1. North Dakota

    2. Arkansas

    3. Indiana

    4. Delaware (Castle wins)

    5. Pennsylvania

    6. Colorado

    7. Wisconsin

    8. Nevada

    9. Illinois

    10. Kentuckey

    11. Washington

    12. Missouri

    13. California

    14. Flordia (If Crist caucuses with Dems)

    15. West Virginia

    16. Ohio

    17. Connecticut

    18. New Hampshire (if Ayotte wins Tuesday)  

    19. Alaska

    20. North Carolina

    21. Louisiana

    22. Iowa

    23. Georgia

    24. New York (B)

    25. Oregon

    26. Arizona

    27. Utah

    28. Idaho

    29. Kansas

    30. Oklahoma

    31. Alabama

    32. Maryland

    33. New York (A)

    34. Vermont

    35. Hawaii

    36. South Carolina

    37. South Dakota

  4. FLIP

    1. North Dakota

    2. Arkansas

    3. Indiana

    4. Delaware

    5. Pennsylvania

    6. Colorado

    7. Nevada

    8. Illinois

    ————

    NO FLIP

    9. Florida

    10. Wisconsin

    11. California

    12. New Hampshire

    13. Washington

    14. Ohio

    15. Connecticut

    16. West Virginia

    17. Kentucky

    18. Missouri

    19. Alaska

    20. New York (Gillibrand)

    21. North Carolina

    22. Louisiana

    23. Arizona

    24. Oregon

    25. Iowa

    26. Georgia

    27. Maryland

    28. Hawaii

    29. Kansas

    30. Alabama

    31. Oklahoma

    32. New York (Schumer)

    33. Utah

    34. Vermont

    35. Idaho

    36. South Carolina

    37. South Dakota

  5. LONG GONE

    1. N DAKOTA

    2. ARKANSAS

    3. INDIANA

    4. PENNSYLVANIA

    5. DELAWARE (CASTLE)

    6. COLORADO

    TOSSUP

    7. WISCONSIN

    8. WASHINGTON

    9. NEVADA

    10. CALIFORNIA

    11. FLORIDA

    LEAN/LIKELY RETAIN

    12. NEW HAMPSHIRE (AYOTTE OR BINNIE)

    13. W VIRGINIA

    14. N CAROLINA

    15. OHIO

    16. MISSOURI

    17. KENTUCKY

    18. CONNECTICUT

    19. ALASKA

    20. LOUISIANA

    21. NEW YORK (GILLIBRAND)

    22. ARIZONA

  6. Likely:

    North Dakota

    Arkansas

    Indiana

    Leaning:

    Delaware (depends on the primary)

    Tossup:

    Pennsylvania

    Kentucky

    Ohio

    Florida

    Colorado

    Illinois

    Washington

    Leaning Retention:

    Missouri

    North Carolina

    California

    Nevada

    New Hampshire (depends on the primary)

    Alaska

    Likely Retention:

    Louisiana

    Connecticut

    West Virginia

    Everything else looks safe…

  7. I know this list will likely be way different than everyone else’s, and some of you may call this list crazy, but this is what I see when going a unique way and applying “localization, localization, localization” to the races and seeing which candidates are localizing their races. And of course my predictions are subject to change, between now and November 1.

    SEAT FLIPS

    TIER I – GONERS

    (1) North Dakota

    (2) Arkansas

    (3) Delaware (special) – may move into more competitive status depending on the primary

    TIER II – WILL NOT GO DOWN WITHOUT A FIGHT

    (4) Missouri

    (5) Kentucky

    (6) Louisiana

    (7) North Carolina

    (8) Pennsylvania

    (9) Ohio

    (10) Florida (yes, even with Meek)

    (11) Alaska

    (12) Illinois

    SEAT HOLDS

    TIER I – MOST COMPETITIVE

    (13) California

    (14) Wisconsin

    (15) Washington

    (16) Indiana

    (17) Nevada

    (18) New Hampshire

    (19) Colorado

    (20) Connecticut

    TIER II – RACES TO WATCH

    (21) Arizona

    (22) Georgia

    (23) New York (Gillibrand)

    (24) West Virginia (special)

    (25) Iowa

    TIER III – NO CONTESTS

    (26) Kansas

    (27) Oklahoma

    (28) South Carolina

    (29) Maryland

    (30) Oregon

    (31) Utah

    (32) Vermont

    (33) New York (Schumer)

    (34) Alabama

    (35) Hawaii

    (36) Idaho

    (37) South Dakota

  8. North Dakota

    Arkansas

    Indiana

    North Dakota

    Indiana

    Delaware

    Pennsylvania

    Colorado

    Wisconsin

    California

    Illinois

    Florida

    Washington  

    Nevada

    New Hampshire

    North Carolina

    Alaska

    Kentucky

    Missouri

    Ohio

    West Virginia  

    Connecticut

    Louisiana

    Now doesn’t that look a lot better?

    34, M, TX-5, Left-Dem

  9. so this is not my list, but my model’s 🙂

    Those numbers are more recent than the ones in the diary, btw. We haven’t put the update up yet because we’re still working out some more fun stuff, but we’ll release the final version of the model within the next few days.

    State— Probability of Switch

    ND 100

    AR 99.986

    IN 99.672

    PA 91.651

    CO 73.561

    DE      71.411

    IL 58.599

    WA 37.709

    WI 29.06

    FL 24.45

    CA 23.847

    NH      22.235

    NV 20.591

    NC 7.528

    OH 7.521

    MO 4.73

    KY 3.626

    AK 3.473

    CT 2.695

    WV 1.581

    LA 0.325

    OR 0.272

    GA 0.261

    IA 0.211

    MD 0.16

    NYB 0.11

    AZ 0.078

    NYA 0.05

    VT 0.044

    AL 0.019

    UT 0.015

    HI 0.001

    ID 0.001

    KS 0.001

    OKB 0.001

    SC 0

  10.  And I am sticking with the same likelihood rankings as before. Here goes:

    Switch:

    1. North Dakota

    2. Arkansas

    3. Indiana

    4. Delaware (Castle)

    5. Pennsylvania

    6. Colorado

    Retain:

    7. Illinois

    8. Florida

    9. Washington

    10. Kentucky

    11. Nevada

    12. Missouri

    13. Ohio

    14. California

    15. New Hampshire

    16. North Carolina

    17. Louisiana

    18. Georgia

    19. Arizona

    20. Iowa

  11. 1. North Dakota

    2. Arkansas

    3. Indiana

    4. Delaware

    5. Pennsylvania

    6. Colorado

    7. Illinois

    8. Nevada

    9. Wisconsin

    10. Washington

    11. California

    12. West Virginia

    13. Connecticut

    I don’t see any of the Republican-held seats being competitive at this point. If Ovide wins in New Hampshire, I’d put that around 9 or 10.

  12. Flippers

    1. North Dakota

    2. Arkansas

    3. Indiana

    4. Delaware

    5. Pennsylvania

    Retain

    6. Colorado

    7. Wisconsin

    8. Kentucky

    9. Illinois

    10. Nevada

    11. California

    12. Missouri

    13. Washington

    14. Ohio- WTF is going on here??? Rob Portman, really?????

    15. Florida

    16. New Hampshire

    17. North Carolina

    18. Louisiana

    19. Connecticut

    20. Iowa

  13. North Dakota

    Arkansas

    Indiana

    Delaware  (drops of list if O’Donnel wins)

    Pennsylvania

    Colorado

    Illinois  

    California

    Wisconsin  

    Nevada

    Florida

    Washington  

    Kentucky

    Missouri

    North Carolina  

    Ohio

    New Hampshire (number 6 if Not Ayote or Binnie)

    Alaska

     

  14. In order of likelihood of switching.

    1 North Dakota

    2 Arkansas

    3 Delaware (Castle)

    4 Indiana

    5 Pennsylvania

    6 Colorado

    7 Illinois

    8 Wisconsin

    9 California

    10 Nevada

    11 Washington

    12 Connecticut

    13 West Virginia

    14 Kentucky

    15 Florida

    16 New Hampshire (W/O Ovide)

    17 Louisiana

    18 New York (Special)

    19 Alaska

    20 North Carolina

    21 Ohio

    22 Oregon

    23 Missouri

    24 Iowa

    25 Georgia

    26 Maryland

    27 Arizona

    28 Utah

    29 Alabama

    30 New York

    31 Oklahoma

    32 Kansas

    33 Hawaii

    34 Vermont

    35 Idaho

    36 South Carolina

    37 South Dakota

  15. 1. North Dakota

    2. Arkansas

    3. Indiana

    4. Delaware

    5. Pennsylvania

    6. Colorado

    7. Wisconsin

    8. Illinois

    9. Washington

    10. Nevada

    11. California

    12. Kentucky

    13. West Virginia

    14. Florida

    15. Connecticut

    16. New Hampshire

    17. Missouri

    18. North Carolina

    19. Alaska

    20. Ohio

    21. Louisiana

    22. Georgia

    23. Arizona

    24. New York Special

    25. Oregon

    26. Iowa

    27. Maryland

    28. Kansas

    29. Utah

    30. Alabama

    31. Hawaii

    32. New York

    33. Idaho

    34. Oklahoma

    35. South Carolina

    36. Vermont

    37. South Dakota

    If O’Donnell wins, Delaware drops to #18. If Lamontagne wins, New Hampshire moves up to #5.

    Remember when we all had Missouri at number 1? The strangest thing about that is that absolutely nothing has changed with regards to that race–it’s been exactly the same since February of ’09.

  16. 1. ND

    2. AR

    3. DE

    4. PA

    5. KY

    6. CO

    7. IN

    8. MO

    9. NV

    10. IL

    11. FL

    12. NC

    13. OH

    14. WA

    15. WI

    16. LA

    17. CA

    18. IA

    19. CT

    20. WV

  17. 1. ND

    2. AR

    3. IN

    4. PA

    5. CO

    6. DE

    7. IL

    8. WI

    9. WA

    10. NH

    11. CA

    12. FL

    13. KY

    14. OH

    15. NC

    16. MO

    17. WV

    18. AK

    19. CT

    20. LA

    21. GA

    22. AZ

    23. NY-B

    24. IA

    25. OR

    26. MD

    27. UT

    28. AL

    29. NY-A

    30. VT

    31. KS

    32. ID

    33. SC

    34. HI (More likely that Alvin Greene wins)

    35. SD

    I wasn’t really surprised by the Delaware poll with O’ Donnell ahead. I already had it being less likely to flip than Pennsylvania and I later moved it below Colorado after seeing the poll. To me, there were several “clusters” that were difficult to organize: #8-11, #12-16, #17-19, and #20-24.

  18. These lists are super fun, thanks for putting this thread up!  Here’s mine:

    1.  North Dakota

    2.  Arkansas

    3.  Indiana

    4.  Pennsylvania

    5.  Nevada

    6.  Delaware (Castle)

    7.  Colorado

    8.  Delaware (O’Donnell)

    9.  California

    10. Connecticut

    11. Wisconsin

    12. Illinois

    13. Washington

    14. Florida

    15. West Virginia

    16. New York (Gillibrand)

    17. Louisiana

    18. Ohio

    19. Oregon

    20. New Hampshire

    21. Missouri

    22. Georgia

    23. Alaska

    24. New York (Schumer)

    25. Kentucky

    26. North Carolina

    27. Hawaii

    28. Maryland

    29. Vermont

    30. Arizona

    31. Iowa

    32. Utah

    33. Kansas

    34. Idaho

    35. South Dakota

    36. Oklahoma

    37. Alabama

    38. South Carolina

    I have 38 instead of 37 because I did Delaware twice, once for Castle and once for O’Donnell.              

  19. N. Dakota

    Arkansas

    Indiana

    Illinois

    New Hampshire

    Kentucky

    Ohio

    Missouri

    Florida

    N. Carolina

    Alaska

    I predict holds in all other seats including DE (provided Castle loses primary) PA, WI, CA, NV, WA

  20. Pickups

    01 North Dakota

    02 Arkansas

    03 Indiana

    04 Delaware

    05 Pennsylvania

    06 Colorado

    Tossups

    07 Illinois

    08 Nevada

    09= California

    09= Washington

    Retentions

    11 Wisconsin

    12 Florida

    13 Missouri

    14 New Hampshire

    15 Ohio

    16 Kentucky

    17 West Virginia

    18 Connecticut

    19 North Carolina

    20 Alaska

    21 Louisiana

    22 Oregon

    23 Iowa

    24 New York (Gillibrand)

    25 Georgia

    26 Arizona

    27 New York (Schumer)

    28 Maryland

    29 Kansas

    30 Hawaii

    31 Oklahoma

    32 Utah

    33 Vermont

    34 Idaho

    35 Alabama

    36 South Carolina

    37 South Dakota

  21. 1. North Dakota (duh)

    2. Arkansas (double duh)  

    3. Indiana (I’ve seen 3 Ellsworth bumper stickers in the past month in Indianapolis, up from 1 a month ago. Coats will still win, but it’ll be closer than expected.)

    4. Pennsylvania (Sestak is waiting too long to attack.)

    5. Florida (Crist screws everything up now that Meek’s won the primary. Meek is an anchor for black D’s and an increasing number of white ones. Rubio with 40%.)

    6. Colorado (true tossup in a mega-polarized state. Bennet has money but no real favorables. Buck is a gaffe machine but Colorado Republicans don’t care. Turnout for Hickenlooper may actually decide Bennet’s fate.)

    7. Kentucky (first R race on the list, true tossup)

    8. Alaska (might be too early to call, tossup for now).

    9. Illinois (I think we hold this one, but it’ll be close.)

    10. Nevada (More optimistic about Reid than I was last week.)

    11. Wisconsin (everyone’s looking at Boxer, but I think Feingold’s more vulnerable this year.)

    12. California (Boxer always shows better than she polls)

    14. New Hampshire (This one could be a sleeper).

    15. Washington (It’ll be closer than it should be, but there’s no way in hell Dino Rossi ever wins a statewide race in Washington. None.)

    16. Missouri (Carnahan has a better chance than Fisher)

    17. Ohio (See above)

    18. Louisiana (They don’t mind adulterers in Louisiana)

    19. Connecticut (Blumenthal has a glass jaw, but McMahon has an even larger one.)

    20. Arizona (McCain still makes the top 20, just in case there’s some Latino turnout record to vote against Brewer and he gets swept out, too, but the chances of that are low.)

    21. Georgia (Right Dem, wrong year)

    22. Iowa (Ditto)

    23. New York-B (Gillibrand under 50, but R’s all suck)

    24. West Virginia (Manchin too popular)  

    25. Oregon (Not even Ras seriously believes its own hype here.)

    Below 25 (no chance in hell of switching):

    Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Maryland, New York-A, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont

    TBD: Delaware. With Castle, it’s at 4. Without Castle, it’s somewhere around 23.  

  22. by pollster.com polling average.  Flips in blue.  I don’t think we’ll have a realistic Senate picture until election day.  There are still 7 true tossups out there, which leaves Republicans with a legitimate range anywhere from 4 to 11 seats.  That is in contrast with the governor’s races, which are emerging pretty clearly with few true tossups anymore (looks like Republicans will pick up about 8 guvs according to current polling).

    1. North Dakota R+46

    2. Arkansas R+23

    3. Indiana R+19

    4. Pennsylvania R+7

    5. Colorado R+3

    6. Wisconsin R+1


    7. Illinois D+0

    8. Nevada D+1

    9. California D+1

    10. Washington D+3

    11. West Virginia D+3

    12. Missouri R+7

    13. North Carolina R+7

    14. Connecticut D+8

    15. Ohio R+8

    16. Kentucky R+8

    17. New Hampshire R+9

    18. Florida R+9

    19. Alaska R+10

    20. Louisiana R+14

    21. Delaware D+14

    22. Georgia R+16

    23. Arizona R+17

    24. Oregon D+20

    25. Iowa R+20

    26. New York (B) D+22

    27. Maryland D+24

    28. Utah R+25

    29. New York (A) D+29

    30. Vermont D+30

    31. Alabama R+32

    32. Idaho R+39

    33. Kansas R+40

    34. Oklahoma R+43

    35. South Carolina R+44

    36. Hawaii D+48

    37. South Dakota R+100

  23. After the results of the DE, NH, NY, WI primaries were known:

    Safe Takeover (>95%)

    1. North Dakota

    2. Arkansas

    Likely Takeover (80-95%)

    3. Indiana

    Lean Takeover (60-80%)

    4. Pennsylvania

    Tossup, Edge Takeover (50-60%)

    5. Illinois

    Tossup, Edge Retention (40-50%)

    6. Colorado

    7. Nevada

    8. Wisconsin

    Lean Retention (20-40%)

    9. Kentucky

    10. Washington

    11. Missouri

    12. California

    13. New Hampshire

    14. North Carolina

    15. Ohio

    16. Florida

    Likely Retention (5-20%)

    17. Connecticut

    18. Alaska

    19. West Virginia

    20. Louisiana

    Safe Retention (<5%)

    AL, AZ, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, KS, MD, NY, NY’, OK, OR, SC, SD, UT, VT (no particular order)

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