It’s high time that we dust off our community cattle calls – we haven’t put up a thread like this since April. Whoops! But I can assure you that this won’t be our last cattle call of the election season.
The traditional rules still apply: In the comments, rank the Senate seats that are up this year in order of likelihood of flipping from one party to the other. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. Have at it!
PARTIES FLIP
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Kentucky
Illinois
Wisconsin
PARTIES RETAIN
California
Washington
Florida
Nevada
Missouri
Ohio
West Virginia
New Hampshire
Connecticut
Alaska
North Carolina
Louisiana
New York (Gillibrand)
Oregon
Iowa
Georgia
Arizona
Maryland
Kansas
Alabama
Oklahoma
Hawaii
South Carolina
Utah
Idaho
Vermont
New York (Schumer)
South Dakota
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Kentucky
8. Florida-with Crist
9. Illinois
10. Wisconsin
11. Nevada
12. Missouri
13. Washington
14. California
15. Ohio
16. Alaska
17. North Carolina
18. New Hampshire
19. Connecticut
20. Louisiana
21. West Virginia
22. New York (Gillibrand)
23. Oregon
24. Iowa
25. Georgia
26. Arizona
27. Maryland
28. Utah
29. Kansas
30. Alabama
31. Oklahoma
32. South Carolina
33. Idaho
34. Vermont
35. New York (Schumer)
36. Hawaii
37. South Dakota
21 Male Democrat, TX 13
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware (Castle wins)
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Wisconsin
8. Nevada
9. Illinois
10. Kentuckey
11. Washington
12. Missouri
13. California
14. Flordia (If Crist caucuses with Dems)
15. West Virginia
16. Ohio
17. Connecticut
18. New Hampshire (if Ayotte wins Tuesday)
19. Alaska
20. North Carolina
21. Louisiana
22. Iowa
23. Georgia
24. New York (B)
25. Oregon
26. Arizona
27. Utah
28. Idaho
29. Kansas
30. Oklahoma
31. Alabama
32. Maryland
33. New York (A)
34. Vermont
35. Hawaii
36. South Carolina
37. South Dakota
FLIP
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Nevada
8. Illinois
————
NO FLIP
9. Florida
10. Wisconsin
11. California
12. New Hampshire
13. Washington
14. Ohio
15. Connecticut
16. West Virginia
17. Kentucky
18. Missouri
19. Alaska
20. New York (Gillibrand)
21. North Carolina
22. Louisiana
23. Arizona
24. Oregon
25. Iowa
26. Georgia
27. Maryland
28. Hawaii
29. Kansas
30. Alabama
31. Oklahoma
32. New York (Schumer)
33. Utah
34. Vermont
35. Idaho
36. South Carolina
37. South Dakota
LONG GONE
1. N DAKOTA
2. ARKANSAS
3. INDIANA
4. PENNSYLVANIA
5. DELAWARE (CASTLE)
6. COLORADO
TOSSUP
7. WISCONSIN
8. WASHINGTON
9. NEVADA
10. CALIFORNIA
11. FLORIDA
LEAN/LIKELY RETAIN
12. NEW HAMPSHIRE (AYOTTE OR BINNIE)
13. W VIRGINIA
14. N CAROLINA
15. OHIO
16. MISSOURI
17. KENTUCKY
18. CONNECTICUT
19. ALASKA
20. LOUISIANA
21. NEW YORK (GILLIBRAND)
22. ARIZONA
Likely:
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Leaning:
Delaware (depends on the primary)
Tossup:
Pennsylvania
Kentucky
Ohio
Florida
Colorado
Illinois
Washington
Leaning Retention:
Missouri
North Carolina
California
Nevada
New Hampshire (depends on the primary)
Alaska
Likely Retention:
Louisiana
Connecticut
West Virginia
Everything else looks safe…
I know this list will likely be way different than everyone else’s, and some of you may call this list crazy, but this is what I see when going a unique way and applying “localization, localization, localization” to the races and seeing which candidates are localizing their races. And of course my predictions are subject to change, between now and November 1.
SEAT FLIPS
TIER I – GONERS
(1) North Dakota
(2) Arkansas
(3) Delaware (special) – may move into more competitive status depending on the primary
TIER II – WILL NOT GO DOWN WITHOUT A FIGHT
(4) Missouri
(5) Kentucky
(6) Louisiana
(7) North Carolina
(8) Pennsylvania
(9) Ohio
(10) Florida (yes, even with Meek)
(11) Alaska
(12) Illinois
SEAT HOLDS
TIER I – MOST COMPETITIVE
(13) California
(14) Wisconsin
(15) Washington
(16) Indiana
(17) Nevada
(18) New Hampshire
(19) Colorado
(20) Connecticut
TIER II – RACES TO WATCH
(21) Arizona
(22) Georgia
(23) New York (Gillibrand)
(24) West Virginia (special)
(25) Iowa
TIER III – NO CONTESTS
(26) Kansas
(27) Oklahoma
(28) South Carolina
(29) Maryland
(30) Oregon
(31) Utah
(32) Vermont
(33) New York (Schumer)
(34) Alabama
(35) Hawaii
(36) Idaho
(37) South Dakota
ND
AR
IN
DE
PA
Tossup/Tilt Pickup
WI
Tossup/Tilt Hold:
IL
CO
KY
CA
Hold:
NV
WA
FL
AK
CT
MO
LA
OH
NC
NH
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
North Dakota
Indiana
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Wisconsin
California
Illinois
Florida
Washington
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Alaska
Kentucky
Missouri
Ohio
West Virginia
Connecticut
Louisiana
Now doesn’t that look a lot better?
34, M, TX-5, Left-Dem
so this is not my list, but my model’s 🙂
Those numbers are more recent than the ones in the diary, btw. We haven’t put the update up yet because we’re still working out some more fun stuff, but we’ll release the final version of the model within the next few days.
State— Probability of Switch
ND 100
AR 99.986
IN 99.672
PA 91.651
CO 73.561
DE 71.411
IL 58.599
WA 37.709
WI 29.06
FL 24.45
CA 23.847
NH 22.235
NV 20.591
NC 7.528
OH 7.521
MO 4.73
KY 3.626
AK 3.473
CT 2.695
WV 1.581
LA 0.325
OR 0.272
GA 0.261
IA 0.211
MD 0.16
NYB 0.11
AZ 0.078
NYA 0.05
VT 0.044
AL 0.019
UT 0.015
HI 0.001
ID 0.001
KS 0.001
OKB 0.001
SC 0
And I am sticking with the same likelihood rankings as before. Here goes:
Switch:
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware (Castle)
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
Retain:
7. Illinois
8. Florida
9. Washington
10. Kentucky
11. Nevada
12. Missouri
13. Ohio
14. California
15. New Hampshire
16. North Carolina
17. Louisiana
18. Georgia
19. Arizona
20. Iowa
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Illinois
8. Nevada
9. Wisconsin
10. Washington
11. California
12. West Virginia
13. Connecticut
I don’t see any of the Republican-held seats being competitive at this point. If Ovide wins in New Hampshire, I’d put that around 9 or 10.
Flippers
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware
5. Pennsylvania
Retain
6. Colorado
7. Wisconsin
8. Kentucky
9. Illinois
10. Nevada
11. California
12. Missouri
13. Washington
14. Ohio- WTF is going on here??? Rob Portman, really?????
15. Florida
16. New Hampshire
17. North Carolina
18. Louisiana
19. Connecticut
20. Iowa
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Delaware (drops of list if O’Donnel wins)
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Illinois
California
Wisconsin
Nevada
Florida
Washington
Kentucky
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
New Hampshire (number 6 if Not Ayote or Binnie)
Alaska
In order of likelihood of switching.
1 North Dakota
2 Arkansas
3 Delaware (Castle)
4 Indiana
5 Pennsylvania
6 Colorado
7 Illinois
8 Wisconsin
9 California
10 Nevada
11 Washington
12 Connecticut
13 West Virginia
14 Kentucky
15 Florida
16 New Hampshire (W/O Ovide)
17 Louisiana
18 New York (Special)
19 Alaska
20 North Carolina
21 Ohio
22 Oregon
23 Missouri
24 Iowa
25 Georgia
26 Maryland
27 Arizona
28 Utah
29 Alabama
30 New York
31 Oklahoma
32 Kansas
33 Hawaii
34 Vermont
35 Idaho
36 South Carolina
37 South Dakota
Flips
North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Delaware (Assuming Castle)
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Wisconsin
Total 7 R Pickups, 0 Dems
where to rank DE as Castle is starting to look like a guy who has not had a close race in 20 years.
have the same states (North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Colorado) going down.
Colorado??
How’s that for sad irony
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Wisconsin
8. Illinois
9. Washington
10. Nevada
11. California
12. Kentucky
13. West Virginia
14. Florida
15. Connecticut
16. New Hampshire
17. Missouri
18. North Carolina
19. Alaska
20. Ohio
21. Louisiana
22. Georgia
23. Arizona
24. New York Special
25. Oregon
26. Iowa
27. Maryland
28. Kansas
29. Utah
30. Alabama
31. Hawaii
32. New York
33. Idaho
34. Oklahoma
35. South Carolina
36. Vermont
37. South Dakota
If O’Donnell wins, Delaware drops to #18. If Lamontagne wins, New Hampshire moves up to #5.
Remember when we all had Missouri at number 1? The strangest thing about that is that absolutely nothing has changed with regards to that race–it’s been exactly the same since February of ’09.
1. ND
2. AR
3. DE
4. PA
5. KY
6. CO
7. IN
8. MO
9. NV
10. IL
11. FL
12. NC
13. OH
14. WA
15. WI
16. LA
17. CA
18. IA
19. CT
20. WV
1. ND
2. AR
3. IN
4. PA
5. CO
6. DE
7. IL
8. WI
9. WA
10. NH
11. CA
12. FL
13. KY
14. OH
15. NC
16. MO
17. WV
18. AK
19. CT
20. LA
21. GA
22. AZ
23. NY-B
24. IA
25. OR
26. MD
27. UT
28. AL
29. NY-A
30. VT
31. KS
32. ID
33. SC
34. HI (More likely that Alvin Greene wins)
35. SD
I wasn’t really surprised by the Delaware poll with O’ Donnell ahead. I already had it being less likely to flip than Pennsylvania and I later moved it below Colorado after seeing the poll. To me, there were several “clusters” that were difficult to organize: #8-11, #12-16, #17-19, and #20-24.
These lists are super fun, thanks for putting this thread up! Here’s mine:
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Pennsylvania
5. Nevada
6. Delaware (Castle)
7. Colorado
8. Delaware (O’Donnell)
9. California
10. Connecticut
11. Wisconsin
12. Illinois
13. Washington
14. Florida
15. West Virginia
16. New York (Gillibrand)
17. Louisiana
18. Ohio
19. Oregon
20. New Hampshire
21. Missouri
22. Georgia
23. Alaska
24. New York (Schumer)
25. Kentucky
26. North Carolina
27. Hawaii
28. Maryland
29. Vermont
30. Arizona
31. Iowa
32. Utah
33. Kansas
34. Idaho
35. South Dakota
36. Oklahoma
37. Alabama
38. South Carolina
I have 38 instead of 37 because I did Delaware twice, once for Castle and once for O’Donnell.
N. Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Illinois
New Hampshire
Kentucky
Ohio
Missouri
Florida
N. Carolina
Alaska
I predict holds in all other seats including DE (provided Castle loses primary) PA, WI, CA, NV, WA
Pickups
01 North Dakota
02 Arkansas
03 Indiana
04 Delaware
05 Pennsylvania
06 Colorado
Tossups
07 Illinois
08 Nevada
09= California
09= Washington
Retentions
11 Wisconsin
12 Florida
13 Missouri
14 New Hampshire
15 Ohio
16 Kentucky
17 West Virginia
18 Connecticut
19 North Carolina
20 Alaska
21 Louisiana
22 Oregon
23 Iowa
24 New York (Gillibrand)
25 Georgia
26 Arizona
27 New York (Schumer)
28 Maryland
29 Kansas
30 Hawaii
31 Oklahoma
32 Utah
33 Vermont
34 Idaho
35 Alabama
36 South Carolina
37 South Dakota
1. North Dakota (duh)
2. Arkansas (double duh)
3. Indiana (I’ve seen 3 Ellsworth bumper stickers in the past month in Indianapolis, up from 1 a month ago. Coats will still win, but it’ll be closer than expected.)
4. Pennsylvania (Sestak is waiting too long to attack.)
5. Florida (Crist screws everything up now that Meek’s won the primary. Meek is an anchor for black D’s and an increasing number of white ones. Rubio with 40%.)
6. Colorado (true tossup in a mega-polarized state. Bennet has money but no real favorables. Buck is a gaffe machine but Colorado Republicans don’t care. Turnout for Hickenlooper may actually decide Bennet’s fate.)
7. Kentucky (first R race on the list, true tossup)
8. Alaska (might be too early to call, tossup for now).
9. Illinois (I think we hold this one, but it’ll be close.)
10. Nevada (More optimistic about Reid than I was last week.)
11. Wisconsin (everyone’s looking at Boxer, but I think Feingold’s more vulnerable this year.)
12. California (Boxer always shows better than she polls)
14. New Hampshire (This one could be a sleeper).
15. Washington (It’ll be closer than it should be, but there’s no way in hell Dino Rossi ever wins a statewide race in Washington. None.)
16. Missouri (Carnahan has a better chance than Fisher)
17. Ohio (See above)
18. Louisiana (They don’t mind adulterers in Louisiana)
19. Connecticut (Blumenthal has a glass jaw, but McMahon has an even larger one.)
20. Arizona (McCain still makes the top 20, just in case there’s some Latino turnout record to vote against Brewer and he gets swept out, too, but the chances of that are low.)
21. Georgia (Right Dem, wrong year)
22. Iowa (Ditto)
23. New York-B (Gillibrand under 50, but R’s all suck)
24. West Virginia (Manchin too popular)
25. Oregon (Not even Ras seriously believes its own hype here.)
Below 25 (no chance in hell of switching):
Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Maryland, New York-A, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont
TBD: Delaware. With Castle, it’s at 4. Without Castle, it’s somewhere around 23.
So I will refrain until after tomorrow night.
by pollster.com polling average. Flips in blue. I don’t think we’ll have a realistic Senate picture until election day. There are still 7 true tossups out there, which leaves Republicans with a legitimate range anywhere from 4 to 11 seats. That is in contrast with the governor’s races, which are emerging pretty clearly with few true tossups anymore (looks like Republicans will pick up about 8 guvs according to current polling).
1. North Dakota R+46
2. Arkansas R+23
3. Indiana R+19
4. Pennsylvania R+7
5. Colorado R+3
6. Wisconsin R+1
7. Illinois D+0
8. Nevada D+1
9. California D+1
10. Washington D+3
11. West Virginia D+3
12. Missouri R+7
13. North Carolina R+7
14. Connecticut D+8
15. Ohio R+8
16. Kentucky R+8
17. New Hampshire R+9
18. Florida R+9
19. Alaska R+10
20. Louisiana R+14
21. Delaware D+14
22. Georgia R+16
23. Arizona R+17
24. Oregon D+20
25. Iowa R+20
26. New York (B) D+22
27. Maryland D+24
28. Utah R+25
29. New York (A) D+29
30. Vermont D+30
31. Alabama R+32
32. Idaho R+39
33. Kansas R+40
34. Oklahoma R+43
35. South Carolina R+44
36. Hawaii D+48
37. South Dakota R+100
After the results of the DE, NH, NY, WI primaries were known:
Safe Takeover (>95%)
1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
Likely Takeover (80-95%)
3. Indiana
Lean Takeover (60-80%)
4. Pennsylvania
Tossup, Edge Takeover (50-60%)
5. Illinois
Tossup, Edge Retention (40-50%)
6. Colorado
7. Nevada
8. Wisconsin
Lean Retention (20-40%)
9. Kentucky
10. Washington
11. Missouri
12. California
13. New Hampshire
14. North Carolina
15. Ohio
16. Florida
Likely Retention (5-20%)
17. Connecticut
18. Alaska
19. West Virginia
20. Louisiana
Safe Retention (<5%)
AL, AZ, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, KS, MD, NY, NY’, OK, OR, SC, SD, UT, VT (no particular order)