SurveyUSA for KFSN-TV (9/10-12, likely voters, no trend lines):
Jim Costa (D-inc): 48
Andy Vidak (R): 46
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Jim Costa’s coming off a whopping 74-26 win over unheralded GOP challenger Jim Lopez in 2008, but SurveyUSA thinks that cherry farmer Andy Vidak is within striking distance of an upset here this fall. The 20th District is at least somewhat competitive, having gone for John Kerry by only three points over Bush in 2004 (but also supporting Obama by 60-39 in ’08 and Al Gore by 55-44 a decade ago). One big red flag is SUSA’s estimation of the Hispanic turnout: they’re pegging it at just 30%. (Note that this CD was 63% Hispanic as of 2000.) In what appears to be an effort to preemptively address criticism with their sample’s demographics, SUSA broke with their normal practice and banged out the following:
* If Hispanics make up 30% of voters on Election Day, Costa and Vidak finish effectively even, Costa 48%, Vidak 46%, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. At this hour, Republicans are, subject to change as the campaign unfolds, within reach of a take-way. If Hispanic turnout is 30% or less on election day, other turnout issues, such as the number of males vs females, could potentially come into play and help decide the contest.
* If Hispanics make up 35% of voters on Election Day, Costa is better positioned to hold the seat for the Democrats: he would lead today by approximately 7 points, 50% to 43% in a hypothetical analysis conducted by SurveyUSA.
* If Hispanics make up 40% of voters on Election Day, Costa today would lead by approximately 11 points, 52% to 41%, according to a hypothetical analysis conducted by SurveyUSA.
Meanwhile, in the open seat race to replace George “Who?” Radanovich, GOP state Sen. Jeff Denham leads physician/attorney Loraine Goodwin by 63-30.
if all those Vidak signs I saw lined up by the side of I-5 are really having a an effect?
These are the same signs that say “Stop Pelosi, Boxer, and Costa”
“Congress created the Dustbowl”
at SUSA, but they’ve released some rather apocalyptic numbers for the democrats in many races over the past month. This one seems somewhat more believable, but their numbers are always the worst for our side of any pollster it seems, including Rassmussen.
That and their results have been rather poor ever since the 2008 election cycle.
Was that SUSA?
He might have a reduced majority, but he will still win, as he’s a good fit for the district. The district is very rural on paper, but what keeps it remotely Democratic are the Dem precincts in Fresno and Bakersfield. The Republican margin is in Kings County.
Rothenberg wrote earlier this week that the SUSA VA-05 polls are a joke because, as Rothenberg is privy to knowing, private polling in both the Hurt and Perriello camps show Hurt leading only narrowly, not by a monstrous margin like SUSA says.
Between that definitive smackdown, and the fact so many of SUSA’s polls are suspicious on their face, I don’t trust SUSA anymore.
I think this just shows the limits of robopolling. PPP has been much better so far this year, but every robopollster seems to go off the deep end at times even after initially building a good reputation.
SUSA SUCKSA.
I seem to remember a reference to farmers in California showing more discontent than usual with the federal government, which might be why we’re seeing unexpected Republican strength in CA-20 (and CA-18 if there’s any there.) I know there’s been a drought there and they’re not happy about the water situation. But of course it’s hard to blame the lack of rain on Democrats, not that that necessarily deters people…
While it seems unlikely that Costa will lose, unemployment rate in Fresno was at 16.2% in July 2010 vs. 11.9% back when he was reelected in November 2008. It was as high as 18.6% earlier this year, so people are really hurting there, whether Hispanic, white, or black. I wonder if recent excessively high unemployment will have any correlation with seat losses for Dems in November for typically safe Dem seats?
That’s just sad.
If this were 63% black, Costa would automatically get 63% of the vote.
On the other hand, if this district were 63% Asian, a 30% Asian electorate might not be ridiculous. That’s also pretty sad.
and other Central Valley Democrats better hold on tight. Expect Whitman and Fiorina to sweep the Central Valley in November, especially since they have been beating the water issue to death. Plus unemployment is especially high in this region and the Central Valley has always been one of the more GOP leaning areas of the state.
Also Costa did barely win this seat in 2004 against State Senate Roy Asburn (who recently was forced to come out of the closet).
But when I was glancing at this I misread the title as “Coats in a Dogfight?” and nearly had a heart attack.
Also, this seat isn’t one I’m feeling too good about. Regardless of how much SUSA’s House polling sucks, this race has rapidly moved onto the radar for me, and numbers like these don’t help.
I have been suspecting that this would be a darkhorse race for awhile. Added to the anger that is typical in most districts, voters here are very upset about the water situation. This poll confirms that.
I don’t think Costa will win in a blowout, but a 2 point margin doesn’t add up. I’d think Costa will win by around 10 points.
I’ll take that as a good sign. Especially considering the source and the problems they seem to be having with House polls, as they did in 2008.
63% of the population is Hispanic, 40% can vote, 30% will vote in a year like 2010.
The anti-Costa, anti-Cardoza, Dust Bowl signs are particularly everywhere. This maybe one of the seats that wasn’t suspected to fall, but is close.
All I can say is the Hispanic weighting of 40% makes no sense at all. It’s less.
but not overcommit, knowing that Vidak will be gerried out if Jerry wins. The only way I see the GOP holding on to the seat under a Dem map is if both Cardoza and Costa lose.