NH-Sen: Ayotte Leads Hodes by 4

PPP (pdf) (9/11-12, likely voters, 7/23-25 in parentheses):

Paul Hodes (D): 43 (42)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 47 (45)

Undecided: 9 (13)

(MoE: ±2.2%)

PPP’s shift from a registered to a likely voter model doesn’t change the spread significantly in New Hampshire, where Ayotte leads 2nd CD Rep. Paul Hodes by four points. Their LV model has a sample that split its vote by 47-47 between Obama and McCain (down from a 9-point Obama win in 2008, and a three-point Obama edge in PPP’s last poll). Both Ayotte and Hodes begin the general election campaign equally damaged: Ayotte’s favorables took at turn for the worse, at 35-47, but so have Hodesey’s, which are at 35-46. Hodes has been battered by a seven-figure Chamber of Commerce ad buy, while Ayotte just barely survived a competitive primary despite her big financial advantage on movement conservative Ovide Lamontagne.

Of note is that compared to her Republican primary opponents, Ayotte isn’t particularly stronger – Lamontagne and Bender both had similar leads on Hodes according to this poll, while Binnie trailed Hodes by a point. (Still, it’s clear that the underfunded, more obviously conservative Lamontagne would have been the better choice for Dems, no matter the top lines of this poll.)

41 thoughts on “NH-Sen: Ayotte Leads Hodes by 4”

  1. which gives this the prime time for Hodes to attack.  If he attacks her now, she gets defined before she can start pulling out Hodes’ dirt and the negative ads work against her if she tries.  

    On the other hand, she’s been dragged down by the primary and this might be a high water mark for Hodes too.  After all, not much has been said about his record as far as I can tell, which means its even more incumbent on Hodes to seize the opportunity right now.

  3. This was always going to be a within 4 points race, IMHO.

    Hodes needs to start attacking Ayotte now and often.

    She is pretty underwhelming, and has tons of weaknesses.

    And he should use that guitar of his to define himself now, before the PACs and assorted rabble can.

    This is winnable.

  4. Ayotte must be pretty cashed out after the tough primary right? And Hodes has ran a couple ads I believe.

    4 points is within reach anyways.  I suspect Ayotte will get a post primary bump though as the primary contestants all rally around her.  

  5. So I’ll throw in some optimism here. I think Hodes does have a shot at this, maybe even a good one, but he really has to step up his game. Yes, he may have had $1 million worth of attacks thrown at him by the COC, but I bet Ayotte had that thrown against her by Binnie alone.

    The next two weeks will be determinant, IMHO

  6. They are one of the few pollsters to continually stick their necks out there and poll competitive primaries right before they happen. Let’s look at their results:

    NH: Ayotte, 37-30

    DE: O’Donnell, 47-44

    LA: Vitter, 81-5

    FL: Scott, 47-40 and Meek, 51-27

    Correct on all five, and relatively close on the margins. In the most recent two, they polled the weekend before and slightly underestimated the insurgent’s support, probably because it didn’t peak until Tuesday. Their only misstep of the primary season was Colorado, where they had McInnis and Norton winning by small amounts, which is understandable. But kudos to them for polling the tough races.

  8. When I lived in New Hampshire over the summer, there seemed to be little enthusiasm behind Hodes. Yes, he’ll get the rank-and-file Dems out, but the rank-and-file doesn’t decide NH elections. Independents do, and I suspect Ayotte has a clear edge among them.

    I’d peg this thing at…

    Independent – 45%

    GOP – 29%

    Democrat – 26%

    Ayotte – 54/95/10 = 55%

    Hodes – 46/5/90 = 45%

  9. This place is one place where some DSCC money can make a difference. Obviously they need to really think about where they are spending (none to ND, AR and IN) and allocate funds to shore up valuable incumbents in reasonably blue states in Wisconsin, Washington and Colorado. NH probably makes the most sense to target for a pickup as Ohio is an expensive market and Portman has tons of cash and Missouri/Kentucky are very tough environments. While in MO and KY we have top tier candidates going against flawed Republicans I think that the environment makes wins there a very high hurdle to climb. California and Illinois are extremely expensive and an investment there would involve a ridiculous amount of cash to throw down.

  10. I have a feeling that Hodes is in a good position to win this seat.  His campaign has only recently picked up steam, plus Ayotte has her own amount of baggage.  

    Anything can happen in NH.  I hope we are all pleasantly surprised when Hodes pulls it off…

  11. … it could save NH-1, NH-2 and NH-Sen and Lynch will be at the top of the ticket to assist.  

    NH-Sen definitely ranks above OH, PA, MO, KY for sure. Cheap market in comparison to those.  

  12.   The PPP poll has 18/52 more/less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin.  Those numbers are surprisingly bad even for New Hampshire.  Obama isn’t nearly that unpopular in New Hampshire.  Of course Democrats are   88-3 against Palin, but Republicans are only 34-17 for Palin.  This is the perfect fire up the base, sway the independents tack to take against Ayotte.

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