InsiderAdvantage for WSB-TV (9/16, likely voters, 8/18 in parens):
Roy Barnes (D): 42 (41)
Nathan Deal (R): 42 (45)
John Monds (L): 5 (5)
Undecided: 11 (9)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
These are some very nice numbers for ex-Gov. Roy Barnes, who’s being aided in this open seat race by Deal’s airport trolley-sized collection of baggage related to his family’s auto-salvage business and his personal finances – issues that Deal has testily refused to give full disclosure about to the media. They also stand in stark contrast to SurveyUSA’s recent poll that gave Deal an 11-point lead, and confirm the DGA’s recent decision to send a $1 million check to the Georgia Democratic Party as a smart play.
The Senate numbers, however, tell a different story:
Michael Thurmond (D): 34 (35)
Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 52 (47)
Chuck Donovan (L): 5 (7)
Undecided: 9 (11)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Isakson appears to be shoring himself up well with a series of re-introductory ads (an important task for him, given the fact that he’s not exactly a household name in Georgia). These numbers line up with SUSA’s pretty well.
gives a little bit of confidence to Barnes’ ability to seal the deal. It seems like his brand is running significantly better than Generic D, which means $1million spent there will be a lot more useful than $1million spent in Michigan.
If this scandal were just an issue of unpaid taxes or something, it wouldn’t be getting much traction. However, the candidate’s about to go into insolvency, which is a significantly greater issue that hurts Deal a lot. This is almost reminiscent of what happened to Inglis, and it seems like the voters have reacted pretty badly to it. Whether this is the nadir of his support or just the beginning of a slippery slope is hard to tell right now, but it’s safe to say that Georgia Gov suddenly has become one of our better pickup opportunities.
…if Barnes loses, it really means anything goes for Republicans this year as far as voters are concerned. I would predict Deal’s personal baggage to be fatal to any candidate for any office in any state in any year. Not against a similarly flawed opponent, but Barnes is a strong opponent whose only “flaw” is having a “D” next to his name in a year when swing voters don’t like that letter.
There are circumstances where extreme financial hardship clearly would be forgiven by voters, such as where extreme medical expenses from severe illnesses or injury causes a family’s downfall–in other words, something bad happened that’s clearly not your fault. But Deal’s problems seem to come from taking risks that didn’t pan out.
This is one of those races where if Deal survives this and wins, I’ll just shake my head in disbelief at how bad a night it really is. Republicans with problems on the scale of Deal’s didn’t win in 1994.
of whatever bad news there is on Nov. 2.
If it does happen, you heard it here first 😉
… more off the reservation than ever. More so than Rassmussen even.
in TX, FL, and GA next year could be the difference between making a comeback in the House or not in 2012. OH and PA are going to be hard to make up for.