SurveyUSA (9/12-14, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):
Mark Dayton (DFL): 38 (46)
Tom Emmer (R): 36 (32)
Tom Horner (I): 18 (9)
Other: 5 (n/a)
Undecided: 4 (13)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
For a sec I thought, “That was one hell of a primary bounce!” But no – SUSA’s last poll was taken before the DFL primary. And man is there a lot of churn here. Among the named candidates, we’re looking at 21 points of net delta, and that doesn’t even account for the 9-point drop in undecideds. Has the race really changed so much in month-and-a-half, to go from D+14 to D+2? Or was that earlier Dayton lead just way too gaudy?
Well, for starters, things are back to “normal” – at least, normal for SUSA-land – which is to say, the kids love them some Tom Emmer, with the youngest cohort supporting him at 46-30 clip, the only group among which he leads. In August, by contrast, Dayton led this bracket 43-35. It’s also worth pointing out that there were huge gyrations among all age groups. The good news is that Dayton does better with his own party than Emmer does with his, winning Dems 74-7 (vs. Republicans going 72-11 for Emmer).
Given that SurveyUSA’s June poll of the race showed a three-point Dayton lead, it’s tempting to write the middle poll off as an outlier. But the poll before that gave Emmer an eight-point lead. So wild swings seem to be the order of the day for SUSA – 11 points, then 11 points again, and now 12 points. I don’t really think this race is that volatile – do you?
Survey USA is screwed up, and I just don’t take their polls seriously any more. Let us know when a real pollster looks at this race.
We have a very fluid electorate at the moment. Such violent swings from one side to another are more likely to occur. With SUSA though, I am a tad skeptical to say the least.
they had McCain up by 2 there late in the campaing in 08, so when it comes to this state, disregard SUSA.
Especially in Minnesota, where they had McCain winning almost the entire campaign in 2008.
Events in the campaign or in the news don’t justify those wild gyrations all over the place. The only ones to pass the laugh test were the movements toward Dayton that could have been explained by Emmer’s craziness coming to light. Still, even those movements were unusually large.
SUSA has had a terrible, terrible year.
And for the record, because of that I don’t necessarily trust their polls that are favorable to Democrats, either, the same as I don’t necessarily trust Rasmussen polls that are favorable to Democrats (most recent example being their VT-Gov poll). Once a methodology has left the rails, all bets are off on whatever a pollster does.
I don’t put much credit into the other either. 14 points seems like an awfully big lead for this cycle, in this state, for this position, especially when you consider that Tom Emmer was only pulling single digits.
It’s hard to know what to think here. Rasmussen had the state at +9 for Dayton, and MPR (hardly to the right of Rasmussen) had it tied.
I’m guessing Dayton is probably still ahead due to his cross-state appeal, but I doubt it’s by more than 5-6.
I can honestly say that the narrowing may be the post-primary silence from Dayton, coupled with the post-pimary silence from Entenza, Kelliher, and outside advertisers. Emmer has been on the air some, but honestly in the last couple weeks I have heard NOTHING from Dayton, other than one kind of sappy ad about his family’s store.
Has SUSA ever bothered to explain why they ALWAYS have super-Republican-friendly youth voters in basically every poll they do, when that isn’t supported by any other pollster, or any actual evidence in the history of ever?
Because it’s just getting ridiculous at this point. And we already have one ridiculous pollster in Scotty Ras, so that market niche is filled. (actually, SUSA makes Ras look credible and competent at this point)