SSP Daily Digest: 9/24 (Morning Edition)

  • CT-Sen: It feels as thought we’ve been partying like it’s 1994 in more ways that one this cycle. One major throwback has been Republicans who can’t control teh crazy and insist, Newt Gingrich-style, on calling for the abolition of the Department of Education. In fact, Linda McMahon did `em one better, telling some teabaggers that she would also consider getting rid of the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency. I don’t understand whatever cultural bug Republicans have up their ass about the Dept. of Education, but suffice it to say that when you say you want to get rid of it, it sounds like you want to cut education funding, period. So please, keep saying that.
  • DE-Sen: A GOP source tells Politico that Mike Castle is fielding a poll to test his chances as a write-in. Castle has until Sept. 30th to file a statement with the elections board, something a spokesman said is an “under 5%” chance.
  • AL-Gov: We’ve seen all kinds of unexpected touting of seemingly sucky internal polls this cycle, but this may be one of the roughest. Dem Ron Sparks is saying that a poll by Capital Survey Research Center showing him down 52-39 to Republican Robert Bentley is “good news,” because a July survey had Sparks behind by 22. (Technically this isn’t an internal, but rather was produced by Dem-allied teachers union Alabama Education Association.)
  • FL-22: Allen West is out with what the Palm Beach Post is terming a “brushfire” poll (n=300) from Wilson Research Strategies that has him up 48-42 over Ron Klein. A recent Klein internal had almost opposite numbers, 48-40 for the Dem.
  • NC-04: This is a couple of weeks old, but repeat Republican candidate B.J. Lawson claims to have an internal poll from robopollster Action Solutions, purporting to show him up 47-46 over Rep. David Price. But, cautions Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report: “This isn’t your standard polling outfit. This is an outfit that most in Washington would not consider reputable.” Lawson only has $50K on hand (though Price only has $300K), and got crushed last time out, 63-37. His fundraising also seems to be off from his 2008 pace, when he took in half a million (he’s raised just $150K this cycle).
  • RI-01: Dem David Cicilline is out with a comforting poll from the Feldman Group, showing him up 53-38 over Republican John Loughlin.
  • VA-05: I’m almost getting tired of keeping track of these, but anyhow… the NRA is expected to endorse Dem Tom Perriello.
  • NY-AG: A couple of pollsters also took a look at the AG’s race in their recent New York polling packages. Quinnipiac, unsurprisingly, finds a close race: Dem Eric Schneiderman is at 37 while Republican Dan Donovan is at 36. Siena (PDF) paints a somewhat different picture, showing Schneiderman up 45-32 over Donovan. Both men have very low name rec in both polls, and the both hold voters of their own parties equally well. Donovan has small leads among independents in both surveys.
  • SSP TV:

    • AR-02: Tim Griffin (R)
    • AZ-08: Jesse Kelly (R)
    • FL-25: Pro-Joe Garcia (D) airs ads attacking David Rivera (R) (if you find links to the actual ads, let usk know in comments)
    • IL-11: Adam Kinzinger (R)
    • IL-14: Rep. Bill Foster (D)
    • KS-04: Raj Goyle (D)
    • MI-09: Rep. Gary Peters (D)
    • NV-03: Joe Heck (R)
    • OH-01: Rep. Steve Driehaus (D)
    • VA-09: Rep. Rick Boucher (D)

    Independent Expenditures:

    • Women Vote!: Aka EMILY’s List puts in $80K (TV) against Joe Heck (R) in NV-03, $23K (mail) for Julie Lassa (D) in WI-07, and $32K (mail) against Roy Blunt (R) in MO-Sen
    • MI-07: The Communications Workers of America put in $100K (TV) against Tim Walberg (R)
    • OR-04: Conservative front group Concerned Taxpayers of America puts in $86K (TV) for Art Robinson (R)

    197 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/24 (Morning Edition)”

    1. the district is so polarized that it’s impossible to guess who will win there. I would only be willing to be that whoever wins doesn’t top 52% of the vote.

    2. I hope Castle doesn’t go through with this. A Castle write in would significantly increase the chances of an O’Donnell victory and Delaware would be fucked for the next 6 years.

    3. A somewhat conspiratorial thought just occurred to me…

      – The NRA gets much of its funding from gun manufactures.

      – Sales of guns and ammo went up dramatically following Obama’s election.

      – The Democratic congress has enough pro-gun dems that they aren’t going to pass any new gun control laws.

      – Keeping Pelosi in the Speaker’s seat will keep guns and ammo sales high.

      – What’s good for the gun industry is good for the NRA.

      – The NRA is going out of its way to get Dems reelected.

      Too far fetched?  Perhaps the preference of special interest groups for incumbents is enough to explain it.

    4. Looking into the camara, he blinks too much.


      It’s distracting visually.

      I’ve noticed this from time to time with some candidates.  It’s just something they do obviously without noticing, blinking their eyes more than average.

      But it’s a problem on camara, it really is distracting and also makes the candidate look nervous.

    5. Here’s the ad, and it’s a very good ad:

      And I just read the NRSC is doing a $1.2 million buy for this race.

      I think this is going to be a tossup, if it isn’t already.  It won’t get any worse than that because Manchin is too personally popular and too strong politically to ever fall behind outside the margin of error.  But I think we might just end up losing this one just like MA-Sen special.  Yes that race had special circumstances, and Coakley WOULD have won at that time had she run a competent campaign the whole way that was conscientious about the risk of losing, but the fact there was such a measurable risk at all reflects the same thing going on in WV-Sen, that antipathy toward national Democratic leadership is overriding other factors.

      I’m approaching minus-8 in my Senate math now, lately feeling pessimistic about IL-Sen, and now WV-Sen.  I do think Gillibrand wins by a comfortable margin, and I still feel OK about Harry Reid winning, and of course I feel VERY good now about Boxer and Murray.  But after those 4 there are still 8 Dem-held seats we could lose, and I increasingly think we might lose those 8.

    6. Here’s the link to Political Wire’s blurb:

      Here’s the link to the radio clip:

      Sadly, we live in a society where so many white voters are either racist or indifferent to racism that it’s hard to use this stuff against the Republicans.  It takes political surrogates to call out Walberg and others on their bigotry, I don’t know if Schauer himself can or will do it.

    7. Here is the poll……

      Now, before we breathe a sigh of relief and call the Q-poll and SUSA outliers, even though I think they ultiamtely are, it’s worth nothing that if you give Lazio’s 9% to Paladino, you have a 52-42 race that’s only MARGINALLY better for Cuomo than what Q and SUSA found without offering Lazio as an option.  And when you consider 3rd-party candidates never perform as well on election day as they poll beforehand, and also the fact that it’s questionable whether Lazio will even bother to actively campaign, you can conclude that the 33% probably does, indeed, understate Paladino’s support even in Marist’s own sample.

      All that said, this Marist poll still is better news for Cuomo than we woke up with yesterday, and I think ultimately he really has a lead that’s more comfortable than what the Q-poll suggested.

      Nothing yet from Marist on the Senate race.

    8. Not like Artur Davis would be any better, but it’s clear he has no idea how to campaign in 2010. The race, is of course, winnable, with the right candidate, but I guess we will will be waiting for the much anticipated Charles Barkley in 2014.

    9. 43 Reid, 43 Angle, and some third party action they didn’t include in the last poll. It’s kind of expected, as last week Angle focused heavily on immigration. It seems to have some strange anomalies, like Angle leading among Independents by 20. Ralston expressed some doubt in his Tweets, but again everyone expected this.

      And remember, this can pretty much be used as the baseline to judge how “Autism-gate” affects Angle’s numbers. (This poll was conducted before that news broke.)

    10. The poll of the Price-Lawson race was a push poll. I was called for it and it included questions like:

      ‘Do you support not raising taxes like Obama wants to?’ and

      ‘Do you support marriage being limited to one man and one woman?’. I wouldn’t put too much stock in it.

      I was polled again last night by a different firm for the NC-4 race. It was more of a straight up phone poll asking how often I vote, which candidate I have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of, etc.


    11. Based on a generic ballot for the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina, the Democratic Party leads the Republican Party by 6 percent, though nearly a third of respondents “don’t know” or are undecided on how they will vote in November in that race.

      In their evaluation of North Carolina Republican Sen. Richard Burr, more respondents approve than disapprove of the way he is handling his job. However, nearly half of residents think it is time to give a new person a chance, while only 29 percent believe Burr deserves re-election.

      Obama’s approval numbers come in at 47/47 – just like the 2008 election.  Opportunity is knocking for Elaine Marshall. NC voters hate Burr.

      The DSCC needs to get busy in NC – we can win this seat.

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