Quinnipiac (9/16-20, likely voters, 8/23-29 in parens):
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 48 (43)
Joe DioGuardi (R): 42 (28)
Other: 2 (1)
Undecided: 9 (25)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 45
Joe DioGuardi (R): 44
Other: 8
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Siena (PDF) (9/16-17 & 9/19-21, registered voters, 8/9-12 in parens):
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 57 (54)
Joe DioGuardi (R): 31 (29)
Undecided: 12 (17)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
You tell me.
approvals have been in the toilet ever since she was appointed to HRC’s senate seat + the pro GOP year + Carl Paladino bringing out the “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore” vote all factored in makes me believe this race could be competitive. DioGuardi could just be benefiting from a primary bounce but its believable he could make this a close race.
of the GOPer getting a primary bounce + Quinnipiac getting a bad sample + SUSA sucks.
Likely D at worst.
I know we don’t include it in lists like this anymore, but it showed Gillibrand’s lead cut from 20% pre-primary to 10% post-primary. In line with SUSA and Quinnipiac.
Looking forward to Marist’s poll – it’s Likely Voters and the Gov sample (released this morning) has Cuomo comfortably leading.
then she’s probably up by 5-10 points.
Are the reasons why the Bush Tax Cut issue was punted in the Senate.
Also Gillibrand is the luckiest politician – she’s appointed, and her first election, the special election, falls the same year as Schumer is up and Cuomo is running for Governor – both will be spending silly money on GOTV. And then when her senate class is up for re-election in 2012 it’s a Presidential year. Gillibrand will serve 10 years before having to run on her own.
It could be the methology of SUSA and Qunnipiac, Same goes with NY-Gov but exactly why with about 6 weeks away is Siena is still using registered voters and not likely voters? Didn’t they get the memo thay by this point pollsters conduct polls using likely voters.
The three polls you cite all sampled different populations.
– Quinnipiac sampled “likely voters”
– SurveyUSA sampled “NY Adults” (no screening for registration or likelihood to vote)
– Sienna sampled “registered voters”
I’m not sure you are seeing so much a closing of the gap, as a difference in who is being questioned.
What is does point out, apparently, is that supporters of Republicans are more likely to come out and vote this year than are Democratic supporters.
If Democrats want to win, they’ll need to motivate registered voters to get to the poll. They have the support of registered voters, but don’t yet have their votes. And it is the votes that count.
but i’m pretty damned sure that DioGuardi can’t get close to the percentage he got with Hispanics according to SurveyUSA
I really do not know what to think here either. Clearly the polling is all over the place in a fashion that surprises even this polling cynic.
Gilibrand is clearly the weaker of the three (Cuomo, Schumer, and Gilibrand), but she is not that weak of a candidate.
There’s no way Gillibrand has anything near a 26-point advantage among LV, and I suspect DioGuardi is too unknown to be only a point behind. The Quinnipiac internals strike me as pretty accurate, with a believable 17% of Independents still undecided. My hunch is DioGuardi out-performs Paladino by 5 points, and I suspect we may see such results in the forthcoming Marist Senate poll (that is, they’d find Gillibrand with a 13-15% lead).
I know plenty of Democrats who are uncommitted to Gillibrand, but DioGuardi definitely has steep climb himself. His record in the House was very conservative, and he’d be the first pro-lifer to win statewide in over a decade.
Mainly because these polls will show people that DioGuardi has the potential to be a viable candidate and could actually win this race.
This will help him raise cash which will make DioGuardi a much stronger candidate.
Also keep in mind there is no cat fud here splitting the vote on the right. Unlike the Gov race DioGuardi is the candidate of the GOP, Conservative and Taxpayer’s Parties.
not close
Gillibrand will defeat DioGuardi soundly. The difference is probably about 12-15 points right now and will probably widen a bit by election day.
The polling is nutty right now so it is hard to say for sure and Andrew Cuomo has the potential to screw things up if he doesn’t get his act in gear but Kirsten Gillibrand is an excellent Senator. She is a hard campaigner. She knows exactly what she is doing. And this is still a very Democratic state.
Senator Gillibrand is a strong candidate, and I feel confident that she will win this race come November. I think she will win around the 10-15% margin.
As far as the polls go, I can tell you that I’m not a believer in SUSA these days. While I’m not going to unequivocally dismiss them as a pollster, I haven’t been impressed with this outfit this year. I have no qualms with Siena, but this poll is for registered voters, and at this time of the game I don’t believe this poll is reliable either. The Q poll overall looks pretty good, and I really have no problems with it. My feeling is that the Q poll might be the worst case scenario for Gillibrand at this time.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l…
Looks like he’s poised to attack Gillibrand on two things in particular: her involvement with subprime mortgages as HUD counsel in the ’90s, and her stint as law advisor to Philip Morris.