LA Lt Gov: Race to the Bottom

The race to fill the position of Lt. Gov. is heating up here in the Pelican State.

The winner fills the seat now held by Lt. Gov. Scott Angelle, a Democrat who was appointed by Gov. Bobby Jindal to replace Mitch Landrieu, now Mayor of New Orleans.

The position has very few powers, but it provides a clear path to higher office and is first in the line of succession to the governor’s office. Specifically, the job of Lt. Gov. is “to promote culture, recreation and tourism,” according to The (Baton Rouge) Advocate.

To fill the seat, Louisiana will use a jungle primary. If none of the eight candidate receive a majority of the vote, then the top two vote getters, regardless of political party, will enter a runoff held on Nov. 2.

The first round of election occurs Oct. 2; however, as both LSU and Southern University play at home that day (a Saturday), more voters are expected to turnout during the early voting period, which ends today, than usual.

Turnout so far has been very light. According to the Secretary of State’s Office and reported by The Advocate, only 50,540 of the state’s 2.92 million registered voters have turned out to vote as of Thursday. Election forecasters expect turnout to hover around 20% of registered voters.

Due to the number of candidates, the race will certainly head to a runoff. Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, a Republican from Baton Rouge, will almost surely be the top vote getter.

Thus, next week’s election will determine who will face him for the seat. A poll conducted Aug. 15-16 for WWL-TV of New Orleans shows that country music singer and perennial Republican candidate Sammy Kershaw in second.

The poll gave 20% to Jay Dardenne (R), 15% to Rep. Sammy Kershaw (R), 8% to St. Tammany Parrish President Kevin Davis (R), 4% to state Republican Party Chairman Roger Villere (R) and 2% to each of the other remaining candidates.

Notably in the poll, no Democrat tops 2%. That is because up to recently, the Democrats in the race had very little name recognition. The Democrats in the race are State Sen. Butch Gautreaux, New Orleans lawyer Caroline Fayard and former Caddo Parish Police Juror Jim Crowley.

Since then, a couple of news developments seem to have changed this. First off, former President Bill Clinton endorsed and hosted a fundraiser for Caroline Fayard, a former congressional page and intern in the Clinton White House.

Additionally, campaign finance reports were released from the latest period, showing Ms. Fayard raised more money than all other candidates. Those reports do not include money raised during the New York fundraiser with Mr. Clinton.

Finally, Ms. Fayard has gotten on the airways with television buys in New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Shreveport.

The goal of this campaign is to finish second to Mr. Dardenne.

Mr. Dardenne will almost surely win. He has a decent record, statewide name recognition and comes off as experienced and friendly. He is the closest thing to a generic Republican I can think of.

He is probably slightly to the left of the state Republican party but has the type of ideology that would be typical of establishment Republicans across the U.S.

This race for second place does, however, carry some significance.

Rumors around the state suggest that the party is grooming her to run against Gov. Jindal in 2011. Right now, there are no viable democrats up to the job, and a strong second place showing by Ms. Fayard would certainly help.

Most likely, Ms. Fayard would not win against Mr. Dardenne or Mr. Jindal, but at age 32, she could be a viable candidate for future higher office.

Please, if you would, support Caroline Fayard for Lt. Gov. of Louisiana, and if you are a registered voter in Louisiana, please vote for Caroline next Saturday.

(Just to be clear, I am in no way connected to the state Democratic Party or the campaign of Caroline Fayard)

11 thoughts on “LA Lt Gov: Race to the Bottom”

  1. We are headed towards a Dardenne-Fayard run-off. Geauthreux showed some promise with his early, clever anti-BP ads, but he did not have the money to keep them on the air. Kershaw has not taken this race seriously, just like in 2007. He has still been on tour. Villere, also showed early promise, picking up endorsements from John McCain and Newt Gingrich, along with the LA Tea Party, but his Gingrich and McCain fundraisers will not carry him if he does not raise any more money. Kevin Davis never raised the money to compete, and was hurt by Fayard’s strength, since he is probably more popular with Dems than Reps. Same for Dardenne, she really hurt him, taking away some of his Dem support. If I had to guess on this race, right now I’d say:

    Dardenne: 31%

    Fayard: 23%

    Kershaw: 14%

    Villere: 12%

    Davis: 6%

    Gauthreaux: 4%

    others: 10

    Run-off

    Dardenne: 62%

    Fayard: 38%

  2. Now that you put the idea in my head, I really think you are right. Today I saw one of her ads again (Seriously, she’s like Meg Whitman, her ads are on nonstop!). When she says we cant just cut everything in sight, I think thats a clear dig at Jindal and possible message testing for a 2011 race against Jindal.  

  3. Because of the LA-3 runoff I’d expect a disproportionate amount of votes to come from there.  Who do you guys see that helping?  There was talk that some Republican LA-3 voters may help out Gautreaux, but I really can’t see the Tea Party types who’ll be voting there likely to vote for any Democrat.  They probably won’t go for Dardenne since he’s seen as the most moderate GOPer, but I can’t think of any of the other candidates as being a natural home for them.

    Anyway, prediction time!  Just first round: holding out for results before doing a second round:

    Dardenne- 34%

    Fayard- 30%

    Kershaw- 11%

    Davis- 11%

    Villere- 9%

    Gautreaux- 6%

    Crowley- 1%

  4. Anyone think he will run for office in the future? I really like him. If he does, do ya’ll think he’d do it as a Rep or Dem? Maybe SoS if Dardenne wins?

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