Author: sschmi4

Drawing from a rather long comment I had on a previous diary, I’ve decided to expand my one part diary on redistricting in the Bayou State to two.

The first part will run through recent developments in state politics and who controls the redistricting process, while the second will include my proposed map for Louisiana’s 6 congressional districts.

In my honest opinion, Louisiana is the state least alike the other 47 states that make up the continental United States.

Administrative subdivisions are called parishes, not counties. It is a civil law state, as opposed to the other 49 common law states.

Politics in the state are no different.

Party labels are very fluid. In state government, there are conservative Democrats – although less so now – and some fairly moderate Republicans, especially for standards of the Deep South.

In the past few months, Democrats have taken a hit, and in Louisiana, it has been no different.

For the first time since Reconstruction, Republicans control the state house. There is a Republican governor, and after Attorney General Buddy Caldwell’s party switch last week, the only statewide elected Democrat is Sen. Mary Landrieu.

That leaves the state senate, which currently is split right down the middle, 19 Democrats and 19 Republicans.

This gridlock is a result of party switchers, notably state Sen. John Alario, and a single vacancy.

Redistricting in the state is done by the legislature and the governor and it seems the last chance for Democrats to be at the table, outside the Holder DOJ, is the state senate.

Let’s look at that vacancy.

The 26th district is vacant after Sen. Nick Gautreaux resigned to become Bobby Jindal’s commissioner of the Office of Motor Vehicles.

(Just an aside, this appointment and that of a former independent state senator as the Commissioner of the Office of Alcohol and Tobacco Control was smart politically by the governor and is VERY reminiscent of President Obama’s appointments of Jon Huntsman and John Mchugh)

The 26th district includes all of Vermillion parish and parts of Acadia, Lafayette and St. Landry parishes.

The district takes in areas of Cajun country west of Lafayette and stretches down south to include Vermillion parish, ending at the Gulf. To better understand the region, the 2000 census reported about a quarter of people in Vermillion speak French or Cajun French at home.

This area is historically Democratic. In the jungle primary in the 2003 gubernatorial election, 3 of the 4 parishes in district 26 were won by Kathleen Babineaux Blanco, who would win only 7 parishes and grab only 18% of the vote but squeak into the general election against Bobby Jindal.

This small chunk of Acadiana will decide which party will control the state senate.

After Gautreaux’s announcement that he would resign, Republican state Rep. Jonathan Perry, who represents much of the sparsely populated coastal parts of Vermillion and Cameron parishes, entered the race.

Soon thereafter, Democrat Nathan Granger, a member of the Vermillion Parish Police Jury and owner of an oilfield services company, entered the race.

At this stage in the race, both camps have released dueling internals showing each with about a 10 point lead.

Anecdotally, I have heard from a friend from Crowley that the area is swamped with advertisements from Granger and after reviewing campaign finance reports, it appears that is the case.

As of Jan. 31, campaign finance reports show Granger raised about 280k, of which 220k was self-funded, with 100k COH.

Perry has raised 90k and has 30k COH.

Take all this with a grain of salt, but it appears that this Blue Dog might just dispatch a Tea Partier in a very important race for Louisiana politics.

In part 2, the map I unveil will show why Democrats need to have a seat at the redistricting table as I attempt to create a VRA district based in New Orleans that DOES NOT stretch all the way to Baton Rouge.

The race to fill the position of Lt. Gov. is heating up here in the Pelican State.

The winner fills the seat now held by Lt. Gov. Scott Angelle, a Democrat who was appointed by Gov. Bobby Jindal to replace Mitch Landrieu, now Mayor of New Orleans.

The position has very few powers, but it provides a clear path to higher office and is first in the line of succession to the governor’s office. Specifically, the job of Lt. Gov. is “to promote culture, recreation and tourism,” according to The (Baton Rouge) Advocate.

To fill the seat, Louisiana will use a jungle primary. If none of the eight candidate receive a majority of the vote, then the top two vote getters, regardless of political party, will enter a runoff held on Nov. 2.

The first round of election occurs Oct. 2; however, as both LSU and Southern University play at home that day (a Saturday), more voters are expected to turnout during the early voting period, which ends today, than usual.

Turnout so far has been very light. According to the Secretary of State’s Office and reported by The Advocate, only 50,540 of the state’s 2.92 million registered voters have turned out to vote as of Thursday. Election forecasters expect turnout to hover around 20% of registered voters.

Due to the number of candidates, the race will certainly head to a runoff. Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, a Republican from Baton Rouge, will almost surely be the top vote getter.

Thus, next week’s election will determine who will face him for the seat. A poll conducted Aug. 15-16 for WWL-TV of New Orleans shows that country music singer and perennial Republican candidate Sammy Kershaw in second.

The poll gave 20% to Jay Dardenne (R), 15% to Rep. Sammy Kershaw (R), 8% to St. Tammany Parrish President Kevin Davis (R), 4% to state Republican Party Chairman Roger Villere (R) and 2% to each of the other remaining candidates.

Notably in the poll, no Democrat tops 2%. That is because up to recently, the Democrats in the race had very little name recognition. The Democrats in the race are State Sen. Butch Gautreaux, New Orleans lawyer Caroline Fayard and former Caddo Parish Police Juror Jim Crowley.

Since then, a couple of news developments seem to have changed this. First off, former President Bill Clinton endorsed and hosted a fundraiser for Caroline Fayard, a former congressional page and intern in the Clinton White House.

Additionally, campaign finance reports were released from the latest period, showing Ms. Fayard raised more money than all other candidates. Those reports do not include money raised during the New York fundraiser with Mr. Clinton.

Finally, Ms. Fayard has gotten on the airways with television buys in New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Shreveport.

The goal of this campaign is to finish second to Mr. Dardenne.

Mr. Dardenne will almost surely win. He has a decent record, statewide name recognition and comes off as experienced and friendly. He is the closest thing to a generic Republican I can think of.

He is probably slightly to the left of the state Republican party but has the type of ideology that would be typical of establishment Republicans across the U.S.

This race for second place does, however, carry some significance.

Rumors around the state suggest that the party is grooming her to run against Gov. Jindal in 2011. Right now, there are no viable democrats up to the job, and a strong second place showing by Ms. Fayard would certainly help.

Most likely, Ms. Fayard would not win against Mr. Dardenne or Mr. Jindal, but at age 32, she could be a viable candidate for future higher office.

Please, if you would, support Caroline Fayard for Lt. Gov. of Louisiana, and if you are a registered voter in Louisiana, please vote for Caroline next Saturday.

(Just to be clear, I am in no way connected to the state Democratic Party or the campaign of Caroline Fayard)

Throughout the years, we election junkies have seen some pretty spectacular campaigns, and some, well, less so ones.

But this year, Democrats face an uphill battle in holding on to their large congressional majorities.

It’s no secret that the House of Representatives (and the Senate for the more pessimistic) is in play.

However, if Democrats have one thing going for them, it is the quality of their candidates and the campaigns they are running.

The Democratic coalition is diverse. It includes minorities, college-educated whites, labour unions, and event remnants of the once “Solid South.”

This diversity allows for Democrats to nominate candidates that fit their district’s voting patterns (hey, what a concept). This goes to include a Bobby Bright in Alabama, a Mark Warner in Virginia, a Brian Schweitzer in Montana, and a Mike Capuano in Boston.

In contrast, Republicans have severely handicapped themselves by nominating candidates like a Rand Paul in Kentucky, a Raul Labrador in Idaho, and a Bill Brady in Illinois (hat tip http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Despite all this, it is not just the candidate that makes the race, but also the campaign (Hi Congressman Mark Critz).

And the campaign that I’ve been the most impressed with is that of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Now, Sen. Reid was given a huge gift in the form of Sharron Angle. The former assemblywoman is a certified nut job, and her many gaffes provide ample fodder for campaign ads.

However, if there is a graphic that sums up the effectiveness of campaigns this year, look no further than PPP’s latest polling roundup:

http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

The graph on the page there shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of each candidate, the net balance, and the percent unknown.

That last data point is the one I want to focus the remainder of this diary.

Let’s look at the candidates. You have a former state attorney general, a former congressman, a former congressman/former OMB director, a current congressman, a former CEO, a former state speaker of the house, a current congressman/former minority whip/father of the previous governor, and a former state assemblywoman.

Some of those are highly visible roles and titles and appear to be prime examples of normal Senate hopefuls, well that is except a former assemblywoman.

Yet the Reid campaign has made the name recognition of a former assemblywoman higher than any of the other candidates in any of the other races.

Sharron Angle’s unknown rating is 12%. To put that in context, I’d say that hovers near the Senator’s own rating and is probably well ahead of the state’s own embattled, lame duck sitting governor.

That is why Sen. Reid will win in Nevada in November, and will be joined in the Senate by Sens. Carnahan, Crist, Boxer, Feingold, Fisher, Sestak, Giannoulias, and Bennet.

Rasmussen Reports released polling for the Texas Governor’s race today. Surveying likely voters, they found incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry ahead 48% – 44% over former Houston Mayor Bill White.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

(Per Political Wire)

White’s four point deficit is pretty spectacular when one considers Texas’ political leanings, the national environment, and the right leaning house of effect of the source, Rasmussen.

The Texas Governor’s race could be a bright spot in what appears to be a disappointing cycle for Democrats.

The race is even more important considering the upcoming redistricting fight. A win here would give Democrats at least some leverage in the process (if they fail to make the slim gains needed to take the Texas House of Representatives).

If Mr. White were to take the governor’s mansion, I speculate it would have immediate implications on the 2016 Presidential Election.

I believe that a White win would immediately make him a contender to succeed President Obama.

First, the voters Bill White appeals to are the same as those that Mr. Obama brought into the fold. These voters tend to be college-educated and live within cities and (to a greater extent) suburbs across America.

These are the voters in NOVA, in NC’s Research Triangle, in Omaha (yes, Omaha, the site of Mr. Obama’s lone Nebraska elector to the Electoral College), and even in Texas’ Harris, Travis and Fort Bend counties.

Bill White won his first election as mayor in 2003 37% – 33% – 29% and defeated Republican Councilman Orlando Sanchez 63% – 37% in the runoff.

His three terms as mayor of America’s fourth largest city were seen as wildly successful by most. He won his two subsequent elections with 91% and 86% respectively.

During this time, he made his first appearance on the national stage after Hurricane Katrina decimated Louisiana and Mississippi. He welcomed thousands of refugees to Houston.

Almost exactly a month later, he would help implement the largest evacuation in American history, an act that would make him the perfect foil to then-New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.

As a result of his actions during and after these two massive natural disasters, Mayor White was given the Profile in Courage Award and named Governing Magazine’s Public Official of the Year in 2007.

Bill White has a great chance to pull off a stunning upset in the Lone Star State. The path to victory begins in the city he led for 6 years.

If he can post substantial margins in Harris county (which President Obama barely won 51-49) and in Fort Bend county (which Sen. McCain won 51-49) and make a strong showing in Montgomery county (where Sen. McCain’s 83,012 vote margin was the largest in the state and, to my knowledge, the third largest in the country), you’re looking at the newest Governor of Texas.

Of course, he will still need to turn out the large Hispanic vote across the state. He will also need to rack up big margins in Dallas county (Dallas), Bexar county (San Antonio), El Paso county (El Paso) and Travis county (Austin).

If White can do this, which definitely will not be a cake walk, I speculate he will instantly be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for the President in 2016 (if he runs).

As a former resident of Montgomery county, I can see him doing well in some of the more Republican friendly areas there and elsewhere.

All the rancorous, incomprehensible talk out of the current governor doesn’t play as well in wealthier suburbs. Yes, rural former dixiecrats and Palinites alike will eat it up, but I do not see those Kay Bailey Hutchison backers in Tarrant, Montgomery, Fort Bend, and Denton counties.

Bill White needs these voters. They are the stereotypical Texas Republicans of the 1950s. They are oilmen, soccer moms, college-educated and suburbanites. They are also overwhelmingly white.

This is not to discount the millions of young and minority voters who turned out for then-Sen. Obama in 2008. They are an integral part of the Democratic coalition. These voters are also extremely important in Texas and to White’s campaign; however, they are not enough to win this year.

In 2020, that may be a completely different story, but this year, Mayor White will need white, Republican suburbanites. He won’t need all, he won’t even need most.

But this year, Bill White will need a strong showing among them, at least for a Democrat, and anecdotal evidence out of Fort Bend and Montgomery counties tells me he has a pretty good shot.

Wouldn’t it be sweet, delicious irony that the man who (hopefully) defeats secessionist, Tea Bagger Rick Perry go on to be the Democratic successor to President Obama?