Throughout the years, we election junkies have seen some pretty spectacular campaigns, and some, well, less so ones.
But this year, Democrats face an uphill battle in holding on to their large congressional majorities.
It’s no secret that the House of Representatives (and the Senate for the more pessimistic) is in play.
However, if Democrats have one thing going for them, it is the quality of their candidates and the campaigns they are running.
The Democratic coalition is diverse. It includes minorities, college-educated whites, labour unions, and event remnants of the once “Solid South.”
This diversity allows for Democrats to nominate candidates that fit their district’s voting patterns (hey, what a concept). This goes to include a Bobby Bright in Alabama, a Mark Warner in Virginia, a Brian Schweitzer in Montana, and a Mike Capuano in Boston.
In contrast, Republicans have severely handicapped themselves by nominating candidates like a Rand Paul in Kentucky, a Raul Labrador in Idaho, and a Bill Brady in Illinois (hat tip http://www.swingstateproject.c…
Despite all this, it is not just the candidate that makes the race, but also the campaign (Hi Congressman Mark Critz).
And the campaign that I’ve been the most impressed with is that of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
Now, Sen. Reid was given a huge gift in the form of Sharron Angle. The former assemblywoman is a certified nut job, and her many gaffes provide ample fodder for campaign ads.
However, if there is a graphic that sums up the effectiveness of campaigns this year, look no further than PPP’s latest polling roundup:
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
The graph on the page there shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of each candidate, the net balance, and the percent unknown.
That last data point is the one I want to focus the remainder of this diary.
Let’s look at the candidates. You have a former state attorney general, a former congressman, a former congressman/former OMB director, a current congressman, a former CEO, a former state speaker of the house, a current congressman/former minority whip/father of the previous governor, and a former state assemblywoman.
Some of those are highly visible roles and titles and appear to be prime examples of normal Senate hopefuls, well that is except a former assemblywoman.
Yet the Reid campaign has made the name recognition of a former assemblywoman higher than any of the other candidates in any of the other races.
Sharron Angle’s unknown rating is 12%. To put that in context, I’d say that hovers near the Senator’s own rating and is probably well ahead of the state’s own embattled, lame duck sitting governor.
That is why Sen. Reid will win in Nevada in November, and will be joined in the Senate by Sens. Carnahan, Crist, Boxer, Feingold, Fisher, Sestak, Giannoulias, and Bennet.
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