Tag: Reid

Throughout the years, we election junkies have seen some pretty spectacular campaigns, and some, well, less so ones.

But this year, Democrats face an uphill battle in holding on to their large congressional majorities.

It’s no secret that the House of Representatives (and the Senate for the more pessimistic) is in play.

However, if Democrats have one thing going for them, it is the quality of their candidates and the campaigns they are running.

The Democratic coalition is diverse. It includes minorities, college-educated whites, labour unions, and event remnants of the once “Solid South.”

This diversity allows for Democrats to nominate candidates that fit their district’s voting patterns (hey, what a concept). This goes to include a Bobby Bright in Alabama, a Mark Warner in Virginia, a Brian Schweitzer in Montana, and a Mike Capuano in Boston.

In contrast, Republicans have severely handicapped themselves by nominating candidates like a Rand Paul in Kentucky, a Raul Labrador in Idaho, and a Bill Brady in Illinois (hat tip http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Despite all this, it is not just the candidate that makes the race, but also the campaign (Hi Congressman Mark Critz).

And the campaign that I’ve been the most impressed with is that of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Now, Sen. Reid was given a huge gift in the form of Sharron Angle. The former assemblywoman is a certified nut job, and her many gaffes provide ample fodder for campaign ads.

However, if there is a graphic that sums up the effectiveness of campaigns this year, look no further than PPP’s latest polling roundup:

http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

The graph on the page there shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of each candidate, the net balance, and the percent unknown.

That last data point is the one I want to focus the remainder of this diary.

Let’s look at the candidates. You have a former state attorney general, a former congressman, a former congressman/former OMB director, a current congressman, a former CEO, a former state speaker of the house, a current congressman/former minority whip/father of the previous governor, and a former state assemblywoman.

Some of those are highly visible roles and titles and appear to be prime examples of normal Senate hopefuls, well that is except a former assemblywoman.

Yet the Reid campaign has made the name recognition of a former assemblywoman higher than any of the other candidates in any of the other races.

Sharron Angle’s unknown rating is 12%. To put that in context, I’d say that hovers near the Senator’s own rating and is probably well ahead of the state’s own embattled, lame duck sitting governor.

That is why Sen. Reid will win in Nevada in November, and will be joined in the Senate by Sens. Carnahan, Crist, Boxer, Feingold, Fisher, Sestak, Giannoulias, and Bennet.

This diary has the baselines for the Nevada Senate race this time. Reid is currently unpopular because the Senate is unpopular and Reid is the Senate Majority Leader. Also, the economy in Nevada is bad after the foreclosure crisis and the decrease in tourists so Nevadans will be blaming the incumbent. About 20 candidates are running against Reid in the Republican primary. Since the primary does not occur until June 8th, I do not know who the Republican nominee will be. Most polls suggest Sue Lowden (R), a former State Senator from  Clark County will be the nominee. Recently, she damaged her chances by talking about bartering healthcare for chickens. Still, a recent poll showed her with a lead of 17 points in the primary. Another recent poll showed her lead by 10 points drop to 4. She has not even faced Reid’s 25 million dollars in a state where 1 million is enough to run a credible campaign. This race should turn around faster as soon as every voter knows about Lowden’s chicken comment and anything else Reid can find. Lowden benefits however from the fact that Clark County will not see a high African American turnout or Hispanic turnout (which definitely will change if the immigration bill gets the Hispanic community active.)

A bit about Reid’s past elections: in 2004, he won 61%-35% against Richard Ziser, a real estate investor from Las Vegas. Reid even won the majority of voters outside of Clark County (Las Vegas.) Being a Mormon may have helped in rural areas but now that the rural areas are prime teabagger territory, Reid may face very large Republicans margins there. In 1998, it was not as easy. John Ensign (R), the now disgraced Republican Junior Senator of Nevada ran against Harry Reid. Ensign lost by only 100 votes while losing Clark County by nine but barely winning Washoe County (Reno).

About the baselines: the baselines show the candidates’ percentages for each county if the race were a tie. I found them by adding percentages from Reid’s 2004 Senatorial election and the 2008 presidential election by county. Then I divided the result by two, giving me the baselines. I am sorry that the baselines are not in a straight line. After some links, you will see them.

Link for 2004 Senatorial election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org…

Link for 2008 Presidential election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org…

County Name Reid Republican Other

Carson City  45% 54% 1%

Churchill   29% 70% 1%

Clark   54% 45% 1%

Douglas  35% 64% 1%

Elko   27% 72% 1%

Esmerelda 23% 76% 1%

Eureka 21% 78% 1%

Humboldt 34% 65% 1%

Lander 29% 70% 1%

Lincoln 24% 75% 1%

Lyon 35% 64% 1%

Mineral 52% 47% 1%

Nye 41% 58% 1%

Pershing 37% 62% 1%

Storey 42% 57% 1%

Washoe 49% 50% 1%

White Pine 38% 61% 1%

For those of us who like visual aides like myself, here is a map:

Dark Red: Republican 70%+

Red: Republican 60%-69%

Light Red: Republican 50%-59%

Light Blue: Reid 50%-54%

The baselines do not show too many surprises for me. It shows Reid winning Clark County in the high single digits which he needs to do to win. Also, the only other county he wins is Mineral County which McCain won by six points in 2008. Reid also loses Washoe County by one point which makes sense because Washoe County recently votes in line with the candidates’ statewide percentages. A difference with the baselines is that I expect Reid to win Washoe County by a few hundred votes if the race ties because Washoe County is trending Democratic quickly.

Just in case you were wondering, I will do Florida’s Gubernatorial race next. Do you have any suggestions for statewide races after that?