Princeton Survey Research for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (9/20-23, likely voters, 7/26-29 [RVs] in parens):
Mark Dayton (DFL): 39 (40)
Tom Emmer (R): 30 (30)
Tom Horner (I): 18 (13)
Undecided: 12 (17)
Considering that PSR made a leap from a registered to a likely voter model, Democrats have to be pleased that Dayton’s lead barely budged. Contrast this with SUSA’s latest, which had Dayton up only 38-36 over Emmer. If you look at the age cross-tabs, there’s not a ton of disagreement between the two pollsters, except on one important score: while SUSA had 18-34 year-olds going wild for Emmer by a 46-30 margin, the Strib poll gives Dayton a 42-24 lead among that demographic. Gee, I wonder which one is more believable…
Still, the RGA clearly believes there’s still a race here, as evidenced by their recent move to funnel nearly half a million bucks to pro-Emmer groups, and three other recent polls (including SUSA) peg this race as pretty tight.