Princeton Survey Research for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (9/20-23, likely voters, 7/26-29 [RVs] in parens):
Mark Dayton (DFL): 39 (40)
Tom Emmer (R): 30 (30)
Tom Horner (I): 18 (13)
Undecided: 12 (17)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Considering that PSR made a leap from a registered to a likely voter model, Democrats have to be pleased that Dayton’s lead barely budged. Contrast this with SUSA’s latest, which had Dayton up only 38-36 over Emmer. If you look at the age cross-tabs, there’s not a ton of disagreement between the two pollsters, except on one important score: while SUSA had 18-34 year-olds going wild for Emmer by a 46-30 margin, the Strib poll gives Dayton a 42-24 lead among that demographic. Gee, I wonder which one is more believable…
Still, the RGA clearly believes there’s still a race here, as evidenced by their recent move to funnel nearly half a million bucks to pro-Emmer groups, and three other recent polls (including SUSA) peg this race as pretty tight.
There are some very rabid conservative young people. These are the Ron Paul crowd that is in their own little world. They are probably the only part of that age group that is “very excited” to vote this year when asked. That would filter out a TON of squishy young voters that would go to Dayton by a large margin.
if emmer continues to be insane and dayton continues to be meh, this could become a three-way, yet again. why is minnesota so slutty?