Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/24-28, likely voters, no trend lines):
Scott McAdams (D): 22
Joe Miller (R): 38
Lisa Murkowski (I): 36
Craciun Research for the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium (9/24-25, likely voters, no trend lines):
Scott McAdams (D): 19
Joe Miller (R): 30
Lisa Murkowski (I): 41
Nate Silver, however, hits on some problems with the methodologies of both polls:
The issue with each of these polls, however, is that they made no particular accommodation to account for the fact that Ms. Murkowski will be a write-in candidate, as her name was mentioned alongside Mr. Miller and Mr. McAdams.
Indeed, and as Nate later tweeted, perhaps the best approach that pollsters should take would be to ask voters if they’re voting for McAdams, Miller, or a write-in. That would then be followed by a prompt to ask who they’re writing in (rather than offering Murkowski as a choice). However, this methodology would be difficult for a robo-pollster to accommodate (though it shouldn’t be too hard for Opinion Research or Craciun, who use live interviewers). After all, the way these pollsters are framing the choice doesn’t reflect the realities of the ballot.
It’s also worth noting that Scott McAdams only went up on the air last night for the first time, so add that as another reason why these polls may represent something of a high-water mark for Murkowski that she is unlikely to obtain in November.
Meanwhile, CNN/Time also polled the gubernatorial race…
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38
Sean Parnell (R-inc): 57
Interestingly, Berkowitz’s margin is actually slightly worse among registered voters (at 58-36). The guy is tenacious, but this looks pretty tough.