Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/24-28, likely voters):
CA-Sen, CA-Gov (9/2-7 [RVs] in parens):
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 52 (48)
Carly Fiorina (R): 43 (44)Jerry Brown (D): 52 (46)
Meg Whitman (R): 43 (48)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
You can sort of sense that Democrats everywhere are letting out a sigh of relief (not unlike the one made by Admiral Ackbar after his fleet concentrated all their firepower on that super-star destroyer) after a string of polls have shown Babs Boxer and Jerry Brown putting some daylight between themselves and their moneyed GOP opponents. (That was certainly accentuated earlier today by the news that the NRSC canceled their ad buy on Carly Fiorina’s behalf in the final week of the campaign.) Among registered voters only, the gaps are even bigger: Boxer leads Fiorina by 56-37, and Brown’s up by 52-39.
FL-Sen, FL-Gov (9/2-7 [RVs] in parens):
Kendrick Meek (D): 23 (24)
Marco Rubio (R): 42 (36)
Charlie Crist (I): 31 (34)Alex Sink (D): 45 (49)
Rick Scott (R): 47 (42)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Not as good. Among registered voters, Sink has a slim 46-45 lead over chrome-domed scumbucket Rick Scott.
IL-Sen, IL-Gov (no trend lines):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 43
Mark Kirk (R): 42
LeAlan Jones (G): 8Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38
Bill Brady (R): 40
Rich Whitney (G): 4
Scott Lee Cohen (I): 14
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Those are the best numbers we’ve seen for Pat Quinn since… well, a long time. Among RVs, he’s tied at 37-37 with Brady (while Giannoulias gets a 42-38 lead over Kirk). The biggest surprise of the poll is how many votes disgraced ex-Dem Lt. Gov. nominee Scott Lee Cohen is vacuuming up (he runs strongest among Dems, indies, moderates and liberals – go figure). Is he drawing voters that would normally go Democratic, but can’t bring themselves to pull the trigger for Quinn this year?
is why I did not want Rick Scott as the Republican nominee. As I feared he stands a good chance of wining. I really do not want him to pull through, he deserve a prison cell not the Governor’s mansion. Sigh, come on Alex. Great news in Cali, gosh that is a sigh of relief, Boxer is one of my favorite Senators and I am glad to see her ahead. Not going to get my hopes up on Illinois, that seems to be a clear outlier. Until I see more polling it seems too wacky.
Maybe Michael Madigan looked at Pollster in April, saw Brady opening up a double-digit lead on Quinn, and asked Cohen to step into his office. Crazy… or crazy like a fox?
No way in heck is Scott Lee Cohen getting 14%.
It’s worth noting Quinn’s vote share in the CNN/Time poll is the same as all other polling, which has him in the high 30s or low 40s.
What’s different is that Brady is down at 40, instead of the mid-to-high-40s. And Cohen at 14 explains that, he’s not been included as a choice in other polls. I doubt he actually gets 14, but the point is that Quinn at 38 plus the Cohen explanation for Brady’s number argues in favor of a valid polling sample here, which in turn validates the IL-Sen result with Alexi up a point.
And that’s my ultimate point, I think Alexi by one is credible, and not necessarily different from other recent polls that give Kirk a narrow 2-4-point lead. In reality they both orbit 40, give or take 4 points, with no real advantage. This poll just confirms the same.
In ’98, George Pataki booted McCaughey from the Lt. Gov. slot on his ticket, and she ran in the Democratic primary to challenge him in the challenge. She lost the Dem nod (though she placed an inexplicable 2nd, w/ about 30%), but, in the primary process, she’d already garnered the Liberal Party line, and thus, ran as a third-party candidate. Several polls, if I’m not mistaken, showed McCaughey netting high single-digits against Pataki and Peter Vallone (the Dem nominee). On election night, however, she only garnered 2%.
http://www.centralvalleybusine…
Even if we get crushed everywhere else, we’ve got a good chance of:
– Having a significant seat at the largest redistricting table in the country.
– Keeping one of the best Progressives in the Senate.
– (Bonus): Getting rid of Dan Lungren; I’m feeling increasing good about that race. Plus, every one of the few seats we pick up is one more that the GOP has to offset to flip the House.
If there’s going to be one state with no Democratic enthusiasm gap, let it be the biggest state there is.