SSP Daily Digest: 10/5 (Afternoon Edition)

AK-Sen: It’s never a dull moment with Joe Miller in the race. Hot on the heels of the news that he believes that federal unemployment insurance is unconstitutional, today comes the news that his wife went on unemployment after leaving a job in 2004, and that Miller did not disown his wife for betraying the Founding Fathers. But wait, it just gets more interesting: the job Miller’s wife left was working for… Miller himself. He hired his wife as a part-time clerk when he was working for several years as a magistrate judge for the federal district court (y’know, for the federal government he just hates so much). Local gadfly (and Lisa Murkowski ally) Andrew Halcro is, in fact, suggesting that Miller was forced to fire his wife because the blatant nepotism may have been a violation of court policies. (Of course, Miller’s response was that Murkowski’s not one to talk about nepotism.)

And on top of that, now it’s come out that Miller is a full-on Seventeenther. In other words, part of the new crop of right-wingers who want you to vote for him so he can take away your rights to vote for him in the future.

HI-Sen: Term-limited GOP Gov. Linda Lingle is saying she’ll “take a look” at a Senate bid in 2012. That seat’s current occupant, Dan Akaka, is 86 years old, so it’s not clear whether he’ll run for another term or not. Lingle is probably the only Republican on the bench in Hawaii with enough juice to make a Senate race, especially an open seat one, competitive.

IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Mark Kirk is out with an internal poll (from Fulcrum), giving him a much larger lead than, well, anyone else, considering that most pollsters have seen this within a point or two either way. His poll says he leads Alexi Giannoulias 42-33, with 2 for the Green Party’s LeAlan Jones. (The same poll also shows Bill Brady leading Pat Quinn 39-27 in the Governor’s race.) Sitting on a big cash advantage, Kirk has reserved most of his entire kitty ($5.2 million) on ad buys for the remaining month.

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold seems determined to follow Nancy Boyda down the path of integrity/obscurity. He’s telling the DSCC (who haven’t advertised yet on his behalf) to back off and let him fight the election himself. Says Feingold: “I consider it to be outside help of a kind that is uncontrolled and tends to believe in a philosophy of slash-and-burn politics. That’s frankly not who I am. I don’t want to win that way.”

NH-Gov: Univ. of New Hampshire (9/23-29, likely voters, July in parentheses):

John Lynch (D-inc): 51 (54)

John Stephen (R): 34 (29)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Considering that UNH’s sample had Paul Hodes down by 15 and Carol Shea-Porter losing too, it’s pleasantly surprising to see John Lynch hanging in there with little trouble (in contrast to several other recent polls, such as UNH’s in-state rival for weird results, ARG).

WV-Gov: I guess the 2010 election is over already? Because the conversation today already seems to be changing to 2012. Republican state Sen. Clark Barnes (whom you might remember for briefly getting in and then getting out of the field in WV-01 last year) says he’ll run for governor two years from now.

NY-20: Finding himself on the very wrong end of both a Siena poll and a Scott Murphy internal, Chris Gibson offers up a POS internal of his own, taken 9/27-28, showing that he’s still within striking distance. He says he trails Murphy 42-38.

VA-05: Here’s one more Dem poll from the 5th that shows Tom Perriello is narrowly trailing, but not officially dead yet. Rob Hurt leads Perriello 44-43 in a poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters and the SEIU (no word on who the pollster is, though). (UPDATE: The pollster is David Dougherty, and the memo is here. The sample was taken 9/20-23 with a 4.4% MoE.)

American Crossroads: Remember back when we all laughed at American Crossroads for not raising any money, apparently because they were waiting for the million-dollar checks from their half-a-dozen billionaire donors to clear? Ha ha, boy, those were simpler times. Anyway, Democracy 21 and the Campaign Legal Center are going to the IRS to ask for an investigation of Crossroads GPS, one tentacle of the group that’s organized as a non-profit “social welfare organization” or 501(c)(4). The larger Crossroads is a PAC, but GPS itself isn’t supposed to participate in campaigns. Rather than take it up with the FEC, which has fallen into chaotic uselessness because of empty seats on the commission, they’re going straight to the IRS, alleging tax law violations instead.


MO-Sen: Roy Blunt raised $2 million in 3Q, no CoH given

PA-07: Pat Meehan raised $725K, giving him $1.5 million CoH


AK-Sen: Two different ads, one a coordinated spot between the Joe Miller camp and the NRSC that’s a bio spot for Miller, the other a Tea Party Express one-minute extravaganza that calls Lisa Murkowski a liar, a fraud, and various other things

IN-Sen: Here’s a link to that Brad Ellsworth ad we mentioned yesterday, where he literally calls Dan Coats a sellout over that all-covers album he released outsourcing

KY-Sen: The DSCC rolls out an ad hitting Rand Paul on his proposed $2,000 Medicare deductible, while Paul’s newest ad returns to the Jack Conway=Obama theme

MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan goes back to the theme of Roy Blunt’s cozy DC insider relationships

NY-Sen-B: Joe DioGuardi’s first ad is an intro spot, as well as bemoaning the dwindling American Dream

WA-Sen: The DSCC revisits Dino Rossi’s days as a state Senator, including support for cutting unemployment benefits and the minimum wage

WI-Sen: Russ Feingold takes the GOP to task for prematurely celebrating short of the end zone

WV-Sen: John Raese follows the NRSC’s lead with his own ad doing the Joe Manchin=Obama thing

FL-Gov: The DGA’s out with a Florida ad with various law enforcement officials bashing Rick Scott’s Medicare fraud

NH-Gov: Here’s the ad of the day: John Lynch leaps out of the gate and punches John Stephen in the nose over scandals at New Hampshire’s HHS Dept.

OH-Gov: Ted Strickland, bedecked in camo, reminds the state’s hunters who got the NRA’s backing

PA-Gov: Well, at least Tom Corbett isn’t saying Dan Onorato = Obama, but he is saying Onorato = Ed Rendell

RI-Gov: The DGA hits Lincoln Chafee from the right? Their new ad says that vulnerable Rhode Islanders can’t afford all the new taxes Chafee wants

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas hits Sandy Adams over the Paul Ryan roadmap

PA-04: Oh, good… more kids complaining about how their allowance isn’t big enough to cover all the debt they’re going to have to pay off, courtesy of Keith Rothfus


AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 33%, John McCain (R-inc) 54%

CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%

CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 16%, Tom Tancredo (C) 35%

CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%, Ken Buck (R) 50%

Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):

CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 47%, Tom Foley (R) 41%

CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 42%

MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 42%, Roy Blunt (R) 50%

NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 49%

OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 37%, Rob Portman (R) 53%

WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 43%, John Raese (R) 48%

126 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/5 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. Herrera is doing little while Heck is all over the place.

    Also, aren’t you supposed to wear orange when you go hunting to avoid being accidentally shot?

  2. Yet another example of BS GOP internal polling.

    Rasmussen CT-Gov, CO-Gov – we know Malloy and Hickenlooper are up at least ten according to PPP so I think it is safe to say most of the others are too favorable to the Republicans.

  3. Like indicated above I have no clue who actually did the Perriello-Hurt poll but to the extent that this is accurate it is encouraging news. The SUSA polls showing him down 25 points are not accurate by any means I suspect. He has had no scandals that would destroy his support. If somehow he wins this race it is clear that Nancy Pelosi will be the Speaker. The NRCC is dumping tons of money into this race but due to Perriello’s fund raising ability the DCCC hasn’t needed to drop a dime on his behalf as he is adequately funded. The districts airwaves are relatively affordable as well.

    His perceived steadfast convictions and willingness to speak with anyone including Tea Party organizations can propel him to a close win. That said, this district is very rural and is mostly not used to electing Democrats. To win, Perriello has to run up his considerable margins in Charlottesville City/Albermarle County and needs African-American support as they are about 25% of the districts population. I would be curious to see the cross tabs of that poll but I see this as about a 5% Hurt lead. Full disclosure about my post is that I live in VA-08 but have canvassed a few weekends in C’vlle for him.  

  4. I’m all for sacrificing principle in favor of the win, but if there’s anyone that can pull off the “say no to outside help” thing, it’s Russ Feingold. From the polls I don’t think he’ll manage to pull it off… but I can imagine it being too close to call on Election Day. He knows his state.

    On that note, I think the “dancing in the endzone” ad will play well with the fanatical Packers fans. A little extra controversy with the NFL’s complaint probably won’t hurt either, and will just get the ad more attention.

  5. 42% in your own internal poll is weak.  That’s almost as bad as Alan Grayson showing 40% in one of his a while back ago.  

    I’m becoming more confident that Illinois’s blue lean is going to come through in the end for Giannoulias, (and Quinn.)

  6. I know Jim Geraghty probably isn’t a very popular person to cite around here, but it’s worth noting that he says a “reliable source” informed him that the DCCC has canceled a week of ad buys on behalf of Chet Edwards, Baron Hill, and Trent Van Haaften.

    If the info is accurate, I’m not particularly surprised about TX-17 or IN-08, but my perception had been that Hill was only narrowly ahead in IN-09. The only polls I can find are GOP partisan polls that show Young trailing. Is it possible that Hill is actually doing so well the DCCC decided he doesn’t need the assistance?

  7.    Sestak raises $3.2 million, Toomey raises $3.8 million.  I cannot believe how much money is being thrown at my home state right now.  Apparently $6 million has been spent by outside groups against Sestak, more than against any other candidate in the country.

      Obama needs to threaten to pack the Supreme Court.  If Toomey wins a close race, I think Citizens United won it for him.

  8. Apparently, Jack Conway is Jenny…….

    Also, this ad is so sleazy it’s ridiculous. I also should mention that Paul said he’d start getting negative on Fox Sunday if the polls get close… tea leaf?


    AZ-01 – Gosar 46, Kirkpatrick 39

    CO-04 – Gardner 44, Markey 41

    IL-11 – Kinzinger 49, Halvorson 31

    MD-01 – Harris 43, Kratovil 40

    MI-07 – Walberg 41, Schauer 41

    NV-03 – Heck 47, Titus 44

    NM-02 – Pearce 46, Teague 42

    OH-01 – Renacci 42, Boccieri 39

    OH-15 – Stivers 47, Kilroy 38

    PA-03 – Kelly 49, Dahlkemper 36

    VA-02 – Rigell 42, Nye 36

    VA-05 – Hurt 45, Periello 44

    Sadly none of this looks unreasonable to me.  It is a big shit sandwich for all, and I mean all, of these candidates.  If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Periello, Markey, and Schauer are doing a little better than I might have thought.  But they are still doing shitty, mired in the low 40’s.

    I would not look at these as Dem polls though.  Penn clearly selected many of the very most vulnerable freshman, which I suspect was deliberately designed to feed the doom narrative and thereby draw maximal attention to the polls.  Penn’s not doing Dems any favors here.

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