SurveyUSA for KABC-TV (9/30-10/3, likely voters, 9/19-21 in parentheses):
Jerry Brown (D): 47 (46)
Meg Whitman (R): 43 (43)
Other: 8 (8)
Undecided: 2 (3)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (49)
Carly Fiorina (R): 43 (43)
Other: 9 (6)
Undecided: 2 (2)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
SurveyUSA finds very little movement on the polling front, with Barbara Boxer losing a few points to “undecided,” and Jerry Brown gaining a smidgen of ground. (This poll was in the field after the Meg Whitman housekeeper story had broken, although it continued to evolve; unlike Rasmussen, they seem to find it barely affecting the numbers with everyone pretty much already having made up their minds.) SurveyUSA has some other odds and ends, as per usual: they find Gavin Newsom still leading Abel Maldonado in the Lt. Governor race, 42-37, and Proposition 19 for the legalization of marijuana still passing, 48-41.
Ipsos for Reuters (10/3-4, likely voters, 6/25-27 (using RVs) in parentheses):
Jerry Brown (D): 50 (45)
Meg Whitman (R): 43 (39)
Undecided: 7 (14)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49 (45)
Carly Fiorina (R): 45 (41)
Undecided: 6 (13)
(MoE: ±4.6%)
Ipsos’s trendlines also suggest that nothing much has changed, although it has because they’ve been out of the California picture for four months and they entirely missed Meg Whitman’s August spike and subsequent swoon. (This poll was also taken after housekeeper-gate, but 72% say that has no effect on their vote.) Reuters finds little enthusiasm gap in California, with 75% of Dems reporting they’re certain to vote, and on top of that, Brown and Boxer both lead among independents. Among RVs, Boxer and Brown both lead by an identical 48-42. Interestingly, that’s two polls in one day finding Brown polling better than Boxer, which we’ve rarely seen all cycle.
Ipsos finds 53-43 support for Prop 19 (pot), 37-49 support for suspending the state’s greenhouse gases law, and support a simple majority for budget passage by 58-29.
GOP operative Mike Murphy is also tweeting that the Meg Whitman camp has an internal showing her within two points, 43-41. It also has Gloria Allred (representing Meg Whitman’s former worker) with an unfavorable of 68%!!!1! (Uh, too bad Gloria Allred isn’t running for anything.)
I care about stuff like the AG race. I have a bad feeling about Harris for some reason. Hoepfully with the enthusiasm gap gone, she will ride on Jerry Brown/ Gavin Newsome/ Barbra Boxers trifecta of awesome to victory.
… started going out yesterday. People are starting to vote, it is a good time to be ahead.
fact Whitman has to trot out an internal showing her down 2 when she was up by the mid to high single digits in multiple polls from August to last month shows how far she’s fallen.