SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Morning Edition)

  • AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov (Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos): Rodney Glassman (D) 38, John McCain 56; Terry Goddard (D) 44, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 52
  • GA-Sen, GA-Gov (Landmark Communications): Michael Thurmond (D) 35, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 56; Roy Barnes (D) 39, Nathan Deal (R) 47
  • GA-Sen, GA-Gov (SurveyUSA): Michael Thurmond (D) 34, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 58; Roy Barnes (D) 39, Nathan Deal (R) 49
  • HI-Gov (Ward Research): Neil Abercrombie (D) 51, Duke Aiona (R) 43
  • HI-01 (Ward Research): Colleen Hanabusa (D) 45, Charles Djou (R-inc) 48
  • IN-Sen (EPIC/MRA): Brad Ellsworth (D) 35, Dan Coats (R) 53
  • LA-Sen (Magellan): Charlie Melancon (D) 35, David Vitter (R-inc) 52
  • MA-04, MA-10 (UNH for the Boston Globe): Barney Frank (D-inc) 46, Sean Bielat (R) 33; Bill Keating (D) 37, Jeff Perry (R) 33
  • MD-01 (OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun): Frank Kratovil (D-inc) 40, Andy Harris (R) 40
  • MD-Gov (Abt SRBI for the Washington Post): Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 54, Bob Ehrlich (R) 40
  • MI-01 (EPIC/MRA): Gary McDowell (D) 40, Dan Benishek (R) 42
  • MI-03 (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Justin Amash): Pat Miles (D) 30, Justin Amash (R) 49
  • MN-Gov (St. Cloud State University): Mark Dayton (D) 40, Tom Emmer (R) 30, Tom Horner (I) 19
  • NE-02 (Wiese Research): Tom White (D) 39, Lee Terry (R-inc) 44
  • NY-Sen-B (PDF) (Marist): Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 56, Joe DioGuardi (R) 38
  • OH-Gov (U. Cincinnati for Ohio media): Ted Strickland (D-inc) 47, John Kasich (R) 49
  • OR-Gov (Elway Research): John Kitzhaber (D) 45, Chris Dudley (R) 44
  • OR-01, OR-05 (Elway Research): David Wu (D-inc) 51, Rob Cornilles (R) 38; Kurt Schrader (D-inc) 50, Scott Bruun (R) 38
  • SC-Gov (Insider Advantage): Vincent Sheheen (D) 37, Nikki Haley (R) 51
  • SD-AL (Mason-Dixon): Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 43, Kristi Noem (R) 45
  • SD-AL (Nielson Brothers): Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 42, Kristi Noem (R) 40
  • TX-Gov (University of Texas): Bill White (D) 40, Rick Perry (R-inc) 50
  • Bonus: UT also tested a wide range of down-ballot races.

  • VA-02 (Christopher Newport University): Glenn Nye (D-inc) 41, Scott Rigell (R) 42
  • Margins & Errors: The DSCC supposedly has some internal with Alexi Giannoulias up 2 in IL-Sen, but this is some NRCC-style crap with no details other than the toplines… Some MI-Gov poll shows that the race still sucks… Frank Guinta is touting an internal in NH-01 that supposedly has him up 53-37, but there isn’t even word of the pollster’s name

    469 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/26 (Morning Edition)”

    1. Big early voting day in Clark yesterday, but Ralston tweets Dems had only 400-vote turnout advantage.  That means the GOP made gains in percentage turnout.

      Every day should pick up this week, with the biggest numbers at the end, so we’re going to know a lot by the weekend regarding Nevada turnout.

      By the way, Ralston hasn’t said anything on Washoe yet.

    2. I respect him tremendously, and a lot of what he writes is great for discussion.  What does everyone think about this statement?:

      The reason that Democrats are likely to hold the Senate but not the House – the necessary and sufficient reason – is because only one-third of the Senate is up for re-election every year. If the whole Senate were up for re-election, Democrats would lose it and lose it badly.

    3. I know there’s a large number of people around here that expect him to lose, but he’s been leading pretty consistently in the polling. I know there may be issues with polling Hawaii, but I’m just not sure that this is wrong. He seems to be a popular guy that fits his district perfectly, with the only thing “wrong” with him being the R next to his name in a deep blue state. I think he hangs on.  

    4. Have things really gotten this bad?  I figured Costa might lose, but thought it would at least be close.

    5. It’s off most people’s radar, and I still wouldn’t bet on a pickup… but I’m feeling pretty excited about MI-03 right now.

      Back story: It’s Gerald Ford’s district, and has a history of electing moderate Republicans, up through retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers. Two moderate-ish conservatives split the vote in the primary, letting a real nutjob– Justin Amash– grab the nomination. Ehlers hasn’t endorsed Amash, and during the primary practically refused to acknowledge that Amash existed.

      Meanwhile, the Democrats nominated a legitimate candidate named Pat Miles, who’s picked up some newspaper endorsements and has stayed pretty close to Amash in fundraising. Last fundraising report, Miles even had more cash-on-hand. An EPIC-MRA poll from last week gave Amash a 9-point lead.

      Now, Miles is out with what I think is a pretty good ad:

      Prediction? Amash pulls it out in the end, but underperforms in a Walberg 2006 sort of way. Miles could definitely have a future here, and it’s definitely looking like a winnable district.

    6. Grayson, Giannoulias, Conway, McAdams are all going to lose.  Huh.  

      I think politicans fall in love with it’s fundraising potential and get sucked in by that echo chamber effect to think that the folks there represent anything other than a small sliver of the overall electorate.  

      Same with all the politicians that flock to Netroot Nation every year.

      This is going to be a bloodbath.  This reeks of Coakley to me where the Dem was caught off-guard, and despite a late furious GOTV campaign, it didn’t matter.  

    7. looks like his closer.  I’m not going to comment since I worked for the campaign, but what do you guys think?

    8. Seriously, in my humble opinion, everyone needs to take a breather.  This morning we’ve seen, what, four really bad polls? (CA-20, NY-20, KY-Sen and PA-Sen… unless I’m missing any…) The confluence of a handful of scattershot polls does not a national trend make.

      Not that I’m feeling especially confident.  Au contraire, like most everyone else here, I’ve emotionally resigned myself to a royal walloping next week. But what I’ve always admired about so many members of the SSP community, and the thoughtful commentary in which they engage, is the sense of perspective that they work so hard to achieve. I’m trying my very hardest to find it right now. Come what may next Tuesday, we can all say with some degree of confidence that there will probably be surprises aplenty — some good, many bad. Moreover, it seems pretty clear that there are going to be innumerable freshmen GOPers who are so far off the ideological reservation within their own districts that Democrats are pretty well assured to have another happy hunting season come 2010 (or 2012, if Obama thoroughly tanks). Either way, as my father likes to say, the pendulum always swings back.

      In the meantime, all we can do is volunteer, stay calm and focused, and for the love of all things sacred, VOTE… early, if possible.

    9. For all we know, polls tomorrow or the next day could look much better, we’ve had bad days before and then the next ones turned out to be better. We just have to continue to hope for the best and not completely fall apart.

    10. Early Voting period in NC runs 10/14-10/30

      Turnout thru 10/25 has been:

      44.62% Dem (6.6% Dem margin over GOP)

      38.01% GOP

      17.27% Indy

      Voter Registration by Party

      44.65% Dem (13% Dem margin over GOP)

      31.59% GOP

      23.61% Indy

      Note that although the GOP is turning out at a higher rate than their registration numbers, it is becasue Indys are staying home, not Democrats.

      In the Democratic bastion of Durham County, turnout is up 73% from 2006.

    11. And revel in some great news!

      Quinnipiac, n-702, 18-24 Oct., MoE 3.7%

      Blumenthal 54 McMahon 42

      Malloy 48 Foley 43

      “Malloy captures 80 percent of the Democratic vote while Foley gets 90 percent of Republicans.”

      “Seven percent of those polled said they were undecided about the gubernatorial candidates while 11 percent said they could change their mind before election day.”

      It’s 3 and 6 respectively for the senate race.

      From the PDF:

      “Women back Blumenthal 61 – 35 percent.  Men split, with 49 percent for McMahon and 47 percent for Blumenthal.”

      “By a 55 – 39 percent margin, likely voters have a favorable opinion of Blumenthal. McMahon gets a negative 43 – 51 percent favorability, down from a split 46 – 46 percent favorability October 14.”

      Full PDF here:

    12. About people who take internal polling at face value?

      “Republican polling shows more Democratic incumbents sitting in the mid-40s in ballot tests than I have ever seen. If the patterns of past years hold, Republican gains could well exceed those of 1994.”

    13. President Obama will lend a helping hand to an embattled star of the progressive movement in the House, TPM has learned. On Friday, Obama will stump for Rep. Tom Perriello, the first-term Democrat from Virginia’s 5th Congressional district who’s facing tough competition from Republicans eager to take back his Charlottesville-area seat.

      A Democratic source speaking on background called the Obama visit “big” and said the VA-05 race is “still close.”


    14. To join Swing State!

      No, obviously there is no wrong year. But man, I wish I had joined this site back in 2008, when I bet it was fun to discuss all the Republicans in trouble! Looked like fun, anyway.

      I appreciate any one who has had anything good to say in the above comments about the Democrats, because today has been a pretty bad day on polling, IMHO.

    15. WV-SEN: $133K

      KY-SEN: $351K

      CO-SEN: $862K

      PA-SEN: $400K

      not a whole lot.  no IL-SEN, NV-SEN, WA-SEN.  WV-SEN buy is kind of wimpy.  maybe more is coming…?

    16. The latest tweet by Jeremy Jacobs of Hotline On Call:

      New polls suggest sizable GOP wave coming:

      A “sizable GOP wave coming?”  Gee, ya think???  Thank you, Captain Obvious!

    17. The Barela internal mentioned in the Hotline article above was POS.  I don’t doubt that Barela has closed in a bit on Heinrich, the climate in NM is not good, but if all they can do is +2 in a POS poll I’m not convinced Barela has taken the lead.

    18. I’m wondering if people outside of FL are aware of the debate cheating incident last night and it’s effect on the race?

      It’s getting major play in the state and while I think it’s likely to be only a one day story, the fact that there is videotape of Sink cheating on TV throws her off at the worst possible time.  It also keeps focus on her uneven debate performance (though I don’t think Scott was much better, frankly.)

      But to me it gives people who might have had misgivings about Scott a chance to rationalize their vote as ‘they are both dishonest.’  It’s a false equivalency; what Scott has been accused of is in no was comparable to what really is no more than a thoughtless mistake made during the debate, but the press has been somewhat harsh about it.  Adam Smith, the FL reporter who co-chaired the debate was blunt and harsh with his first headline – Alex Sink cheated during the debate

      Scott’s people are treating it like the gift it is; distributing a logo for iCheat with Sink’s face on it and saying ‘Want to cheat during a debate?  There’s an app for that.’  Fwiw, the message was NOT on an iPhone, iPod, iPad or anything else that begins with ‘i’.

      Sink has fired the person who sent her the message, but I’m sure she wishes she’d have pushed the phone away once she realized that someone was trying to send her a message.  Truth is, in the heat of the moment, I suspect she simply forgot the rule.  Not so good – the person who sent her the message was actually the person from her campaign who negotiated the rules.  He has no excuse and if she loses this thing by a small margin, I would be willing to say that it’s his fault.

    19. In response to’s “First Read” of Oct. 25:

      *** How to spot a GOP wave: On Election Night, which takes place eight days from today, we’ll likely be able to tell very early if Republicans are on the verge of taking back the House — and possibly more. Polls close completely at 7:00 pm ET in five states with a handful of key races: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Virginia. (And we’ll begin to see returns in Indiana at 6:00 pm ET, when many polling places close in the state.) Let’s start with IN-9, which has become the quintessential swing district because Rep. Baron Hill (D) lost the seat in ’04, but won it back in ’06 and was re-elected in ’08. This race is No. 42 in our House rankings — right about the number the GOP will need to take back the House (because Dems will likely pick up two to four seats). So if this race is called for Hill’s challenger, Tea Party-backed Todd Young, you know it’s going to be a good night for the GOP.

      *** Looking at IN, GA, and KY: Another place to watch is GA-8, because if Republicans are winning it, they could very well be on their way to a gain of 50-plus seats. Rep. Jim Marshall (D) won that district with just 51% in 2006 and 57% in ’08. The other early House contest to watch is in KY-6, which could forecast a big GOP tidal wave if Republicans are winning it — or are even running close. The congressman representing that district is Ben Chandler (D), who won his previous contests with 65% (in ‘0 and 85% (in ’06). Other races to watch in that first hour: GA-2, IN-2, SC-5, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, and VA-11. And closing at 7:30 are the key races in North Carolina (NC-2, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11), in Ohio (OH-1, OH-6, OH-13, OH-15, OH-16, OH-1, and in West Virginia (WV-1, WV-3). If Republicans are winning a majority of these 20 races, say hello to Speaker John Boehner.

      And me:

      @chucktodd Ds win KY6, IN2, GA2, VA9, VA11, NC2, NC7, NC11, OH6, OH13, OH18, WV1, WV3. Rs win IN9, GA8, SC5, VA2, VA5, NC8, OH1, OH15, OH16

      @chucktodd There. Sorry if I spoiled the suspense.

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