SSP Daily Digest: 10/27 (Morning Edition)

AL-Gov (Univ. of S. Alabama): Ron Sparks (D) 35%, Robert Bentley (R) 48%

CA-Sen, CA-Gov (Suffolk): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 52%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%; Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%

(Bonus: Kamala Harris leads Steve Cooley 35-34 in the AG race, and “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 55-40)

CA-Sen, CA-Gov (SurveyUSA for KABC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 45%, Carly Fiorina (R) 40%; Jerry Brown (D) 46%, Meg Whitman (R) 38%

(Bonus: Gavin Newsom leads Abel Maldonado 42-34 for LG, and “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 46-44)

CA-Sen, CA-Gov (PPP): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 52%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%; Jerry Brown (D) 53%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%

(Bonus: “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 45-48)

CA-20 (SurveyUSA for KFSN): Jim Costa (D-inc) 42%, Andy Vidak (R) 52%

(note: this poll population is 37% Hispanic, compared with 67% in reality) (also, the DCCC responded with a poll giving Costa a 47-41 lead, although they neglected to leak the pollster’s name) (UPDATE: The pollster is Bennet Petts & Normington, with the sample over the same 10/21-24 period as SurveyUSA)

CT-Sen, CT-Gov (Quinnipiac): Richard Blumenthal (D) 54% (54), Linda McMahon (R) 42% (43); Dan Malloy (D) 48% (49), Tom Foley (R) 43% (42)

FL-08 (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Alan Grayson (D-inc) 41% (36), Daniel Webster (R) 48% (43), Peg Dunmire (T) 4%

GA-Gov (InsiderAdvantage): Roy Barnes (D) 41%, Nathan Deal (R) 47%, John Monds (L) 5%

ID-Gov, ID-Sen, ID-01, ID-02 (Mason-Dixon for Idaho newspapers): Keith Allred (D) 30%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 52%; Tom Sullivan (D) 20%, Mike Crapo (R-inc) 64%; Walt Minnick (D-inc) 44%, Raul Labrador (R) 41%; Mike Crawford (D) 17%, Mike Simpson (R-inc) 67%

IA-Gov (Global Strategy Group for Chet Culver): Chet Culver (D-inc) 40%, Terry Branstad (R) 46%

IL-Gov (MarketShares for Chicago Tribune): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 39% (39), Bill Brady (R) 43% (38), Scott Lee Cohen (I) 5%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%, Lex Green (L) 2%

IL-Sen (Anzalone-Liszt for DSCC): Alexi Giannoulias (D) 38%, Mark Kirk (R) 36%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%, Mike Labno (L) 4%

KY-Sen (PPP): Jack Conway (D) 40%, Rand Paul (R) 53%

KY-03 (RiverCity for Todd Lally): John Yarmuth (D-inc) 41%, Todd Lally (R) 37% (note: n = only 239, yet they claim MoE of 4.5%)

LA-02 (Anzalone-Liszt): Cedric Richmond (D) 49%, Joe Cao (R-inc) 32%

MD-Sen (Baltimore Sun): Barb Mikulski (D-inc) 59%, Eric Wargotz (R) 32%

NC-Sen (SurveyUSA for WRAL): Elaine Marshall (D) 38%, Richard Burr (R-inc) 53%, Mike Beitler (L) 5%

NC-Sen (Tel Opinion Research for Civitas): Elaine Marshall (D) 34%, Richard Burr (R-inc) 44%, Mike Beitler (L) 4%

NJ-03 (Monmouth): John Adler (D-inc) 43% (42), Jon Runyan (R) 48% (39)

NJ-03 (Eagleton/Rutgers): John Adler (D-inc) 44%, Jon Runyan (R) 44%, Peter DeStefano (I) 4%

NJ-06 (Monmouth): Frank Pallone (D-inc) 52% (53), Anna Little (R) 45% (41)

NM-Gov (POS for Susana Martinez): Diane Denish (D) 42%, Susana Martinez (R) 50%

NM-Gov (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Diane Denish): Diane Denish (D) 45%, Susana Martinez (R) 46%

NY-20 (Siena): Scott Murphy (D-inc) 42% (54), Chris Gibson (R) 51% (37)

(The Murphy camp leaked an internal from Global Strategy Group today, although only saying a 3-point lead without specific toplines)

OH-Gov, OH-Sen (Quinnipiac): Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43% (41), John Kasich (R) 49% (51); Lee Fisher (D) 36% (34), Rob Portman (R) 53% (55)

OH-Sen (Wilson Research, not apparently on anyone’s behalf): Lee Fisher (D) 38%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

OH-Sen (Univ. of Cincinnati for Ohio newspapers): Lee Fisher (D) 39%, Rob Portman 58%

PA-Sen, PA-Gov (Ipsos for Reuters): Joe Sestak (D) 46%, Pat Toomey (R) 46%; Dan Onorato (D) 43%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

(Sestak leads 46-42 among RVs, and even Onorato leads 46-43 among RVs)

PA-Sen, PA-Gov (Muhlenberg): Joe Sestak (D) 40% (42), Pat Toomey (R) 48% (47); Dan Onorato (D) 39% (41), Tom Corbett (R) 50% (49)

PA-08 (POS for Mike Fitzpatrick): Patrick Murphy (D-inc) 40%, Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 50%

PA-10 (Lycoming): Chris Carney (D-inc) 45%, Tom Marino (R) 39%

SD-Gov (Neilson Brothers): Scott Heidepriem (D) 40%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 43%

VA-09 (SurveyUSA for WDBJ): Rick Boucher (D-inc) 46%, Morgan Griffith (R) 47%

WI-Gov (Mellman Group, not apparently on anyone’s behalf): Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Scott Walker (R) 47%

159 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/27 (Morning Edition)”


    F&M: 43-36 Toomey

    Muhlenberg: 46-41 Toomey

    NRSC seems to be scaling back on its ad buys, committing $400K yesterday.  There could be more to come, but they spent $1.4MM last week in chunks of $630K and $775K.  So I’m expecting a significant dropoff this week.  Team red seems to be feeling much better about this one.

  2. If they’re really planning of going into the polling business, why are they suddenly quiet, 2 polls for all of the last month. Highly suspicious.

  3. I think as of right now this is likely…

    50-60 net loss in the House

    7-8 net loss in the Senate

    8-10 net loss in Governorships

    Pretty depressing.  Only good thing is we will have a much more liberal House roster, but then again getting things passed in the house was never really a problem this year outside of one or two votes.  It’s been the Senate that has killed us.

  4. Early voting stats thru 10/26 for NC:

    Dem: 44.91%

    GOP: 37.90%

    Indy: 17.09%

    Democrats turnout margin over GOP thru 10/26: 7.01%

    Democrats turnout margin over GOP thru 10/25: 6.61%

    The Dems’ margin has increased every day since 10/20, when it was 6.04%.

    Registration by party:

    Dem: 44.65%

    GOP: 31.59%

    Indy: 23.61%

    Party registration has not budged during early voting, when voters can show up, register, and vote all at the same time. Only 3,867 voters have been added to the registration rolls during early voting – 1,588 GOP, 1,447 Indy, 749 Dem, and 83 Libs. With almost 6.2 million registered voters, that doesn’t move the needle any.

    Bottom line: Dems are outperforming their registration numbers by .3%, GOPTeabaggers are outperfoming their registration numbers by 6.3%, and Indys are underperforming by 6.5%.

    I guess you could say the enthusiasm gap is twice as bad with Indy’s as it is with Democrats in NC.


  5. I still got to go back to the Harstad poll from late September that found, of the voters that voting in 2006, the numbers break 52% to 44% in favor of Murphy.


    That’s a pretty unbiased, impressive metric to use. And the POS poll makes no mention of a similar metric.  

  6. Bad news: Ralston is reporting another fairly good day for the GOP in early voting.

    Good news: It wasn’t as bad as Monday. The Dems’ raw vote lead for Tuesday jumped back to 800 (out of another 20,000 votes cast). Again, remember that many of the vote sites yesterday were in hostile territory, like Sun City Anthem, Boulder City, and Mesquite (all GOP strongholds). So in fact, it’s quite good that our margin yesterday doubled over Monday (when it was just 400).

    And even more good news: Starting today, we’re getting early vote sites in Old Town Henderson and North Las Vegas, MUCH friendlier territory with many Dems who may not have voted yet. And tomorrow, we’re getting even more “last minute” early vote sites in North Las Vegas and The East Side, two Dem strongholds. Hopefully, we can close well in these last 3 days of early voting.

  7. Rasmussen: Manchin up 49-46.

    Rasmussen had Raese up by 7% last week, by 3% just yesterday (=Fox)!

  8. Republicans will be in jeopardy of losing many of the seats that they pick up in either the next cycle or future cycles. In many of the seats, they are choosing much more right-wing candidates than represented the districts before. For example, if Dan Webster were to win over Grayson, Webster is certainly much more to the right than Ric Keller and could struggle to hold onto an Orlando area districts if he’s voting for tax cuts for the wealthy and cutting education. Of course, we’ll have to see what happens with redistricting, but this generation of new Republicans in Congress is not going to be the same as the Leaches, Shays, and Northups who once held swing districts for Republicans. I think we can expect little bipartisan from many of these Republicans, which could hurt them in many of these districts used to less partisan Republicans.

  9. Democrats still have an edge. As of today, 355,192 Iowans have requested an absentee ballot and 254,836 ballots have been received by county auditors.

    Among Iowans who have requested absentee ballots, 158,286 (44.6%) are registered Democrats, 129,316 (36.4%) are Republicans, 67,288 (18.9%) are no-party voters and 302 have some other registration. Those whose ballots have already been returned to county auditors include 114,193 Democrats (44.8%), 97,398 Republicans (38.2%), 43,037 no-party voters (16.9%) and 208 voters with a different registration.

    The total number of Iowa votes cast in the 2006 general election was 1,044,459.  

  10. Finally we get some recent polling on the LG and AG races. Glad to see the Dems leading in both, because Maldonaldo and Cooley could both become strong statewide GOP threats in the future.

    What worries me is that Suffolk has Brown and Boxer’s leads close to the high end of what we see, so it might be inflated by a few points. Granted, they’ll still win, but that suggest this might be leading too hard to the Dems, which is not great news for Kamala Harris if she’s essentially tied with Cooley.

    Glad to see Newsom with the same margin as Brown. All my Republican relatives hate Newsom for his 2003 gay marriage showdown and insisted he was far too left even for California. Glad to see they’re being proven wrong.

  11. Yet another tea leaf suggesting Kirk has a slight edge.  I’ve been thinking for awhile that he does, and while Rassy is very erratic, this poll is plausible.

    Ras has Giannoulias bleeding Dems badly, holding just 71% while losing 18% to Kirk and 11% to others or undecided.  The turnout model is fine, with 48D-32R, but there needs to be more base persuasion and extremely strong GOTV in Chicago to pull this out.

    There are enough Democrats to carry Giannoulias to victory, but too many of them are saying they won’t vote for him.

  12. From the DSCC…

    At least this one makes an attempt to make a connection. IMHO their last one required too much “connect the dots”. At least this one shows how extreme Angle is.

    And here’s Reid’s newest ad… Pure brilliance. The hallmark of a great political ad for me is if it can deliver the message either muted OR without pictures, and this one does it. Just the image of the coffin, of the empty swing set, and of a blacked out CityCenter look frightening. It seems Reid and Titus got all the good ad makers, and the DSCC and DCCC are playing second fiddle here.

  13. CO – $1.0MM – Indicative of close, competitive race.

    IL – $1.2MM – Indicative of close, competitive race.

    KY – $413K – At least they’re still spending.

    WV – $1.1MM – Indicative of close, competitive race.

    WA – $632K – NRSC confidence in Rossi may be waning.

    PA – $1.8MM – Republicans seeing a three alarm fire here.  Encouraging for Sestak fans.

    CA – $2.8MM – Can’t believe Republicans actually going after this.  Maybe some of these public polls are wrong.

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