Well, since my House diary was so successful (all of 16 comments, over half of them my own – yay!), I’m going to keep going. Here are my Senate predictions. Stealing a good idea from spiderdem, I’m also going to include projected margins of victory, mostly based on what I’ve seen, but occasionally pulled out of my butt based on gut feeling, observed trends, or some other completely arbitrary whatever.
D PICKUPS:
*Alaska: McAdams 35 Murkowski 34 Miller 31
Murkowski and Miller take a pound of flesh from each other, McAdams narrowly wins. Years of lawsuits ensue.
D HOLDS:
*California: Boxer 53 Fiorina 47
Boxer always closes strong. Good D turnout in CA.
*Colorado: Bennet 51 Buck 49
Late D turnout for Bennet pulls him over.
*Connecticut: Blumenthal 54 McMahon 46
Weak performance by Blumenthal, but McMahon can’t win.
*Delaware: Coons 61 O’Donnell 39
Thanks, teabaggers!
*Nevada: Reid 50 Angle 50
Goes to a recount, but Reid wins by less than 1,000 votes.
*New York-B: Gillibrand 60 Some Dude 40
Not even close. I can’t even remember the R’s name here.
*Oregon: Wyden 57 Huffman 43
Only in Scotty Ras’s fevered dreams is this race remotely competitive.
*Pennsylvania: Sestak 52 Toomey 48
Sestak’s last minute “blitzkrieg” strategy overwhelms yet another complacent Republican. If he pulls this out, he should run for President.
*Washington: Murray 53 Rossi 47
I don’t care what the polls say, Dino Rossi will never, ever, ever come remotely close to winning a statewide race in Washington after 2004.
*West Virginia: Manchin 55 Raese 45
This state clearly wants to elect a Republican, but a carpetbagging rich guy from Florida isn’t going to beat a Dem as popular as Joe Manchin.
R PICKUPS:
*Arkansas: Boozman 57 Lincoln 43
Lincoln pulls closer, but still doesn’t deliver.
*Illinois: Kirk 50 Giannoulias 50
This one won’t be resolved for months. Between here and NV, media develops “Dems cheating at important seats” narrative. Heckuva job, Blago.
*Indiana: Coats 54 Ellsworth 46
Ellsworth really should win this one, but he’s run a terrible campaign. Entirely Evan Bayh’s fault for being such a two-faced coward.
*North Dakota: Hoeven 66 Some Dude 33
Like NY-Sen, I can’t even remember the loser’s name here.
*Wisconsin: Johnson 52 Feingold 48
Feingold is the Nancy Boyda of the US Senate. If he’d accepted DSCC help, he’d have won.
R HOLDS:
*Arizona: McCain 58 Glassman 42
McCain crushes Glassman. No contest.
*Florida: Rubio 44 Crist 39 Meek 17
Crist’s epic fail of a campaign and Meek’s epic fail of an ego have totally screwed us here.
*Georgia: Isakson 57 Thurmond 43
Isakson weak for a GOP incumbent in Georgia, but this isn’t the year.
*Iowa: Grassley 56 Conlin 44
Surprisingly weak showing for Grassley, but everyone knows it’s his last election.
*Kentucky: Paul 53 Conway 47
The Aqua Buddha ad inexplicably killed Conway’s campaign. Kentucky voters are idiots.
*Louisiana: Vitter 52 Melancon 48
In the biggest shocker of the night, Melancon almost knocks off Vitter…until the Shreveport vote barely drags him over the line.
*Missouri: Blunt 51 Carnahan 49
Carnahan closes strong, but it’s not quite enough. Blunt is such an enormous a-hole that he won’t last more than a single term, even in MO.
*New Hampshire: Ayotte 54 Hodes 46
Hodes too liberal to win statewide in a bad year.
*North Carolina: Burr 52 Marshall 48
Biggest missed opportunity of the cycle.
*Ohio: Portman 59 Fisher 41
Fisher’s phoned it in. Stick a fork in this one.
D NONCOMPETITIVE:
Hawaii, Maryland, New York-A, Vermont
R NONCOMPETITIVE:
Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma, S. Carolina, S. Dakota, Utah
Margins:
Old margin: D 59, R 41
New margin: D 54, R 46
That’s it. There’s less to do here so I’m not that far off from everyone else’s projections, but have at me anyway.
Thank you very much.