The 2010 SSP Election Prediction Contest

As usual, SSP is offering our annual election prediction contest!

Winners, as always, get some delicious delicious Green’s Babka, courtesy of Mr. NYC himself! To get the deliciousness though, you’ll have to submit your predictions on these 9 races:

  • Governors Races: Connecticut, Ohio, and Oregon

  • Senate Races: Colorado, Nevada, and Wisconsin

  • House Races: FL-25, PA-07, and VA-11

Here, just pick the winner and margin of victory, feel free to go to as many significant figures as you’d like.

…but of course, things are never this easy. There are two curveballs here, where you’ll have to say percentages for each of the candidates:

  • MN-Gov: Mark Dayton, Tom Emmer, and Tom Horner

  • AK-Sen: Scott McAdams, Joe Miller, and Lisa Murkowski

To be babka-eligible, enter your guesses into our online form. No reading comprehension = no babka!

You’ll have to have created your SSP account before midnight EDT though. If you haven’t, you can still register and submit an entry for bragging rights, and the option to get more babka in the future!

Also, feel free to share your predictions on these races (and any others!) in this thread, but be aware that people may be reading your predictions for inspiration!

Contest closes 6pm EDT today.

Why 6pm? Well, if you look at our handy little map, it’s when first polls close!

98 thoughts on “The 2010 SSP Election Prediction Contest”

  1. In addition to LA-02, DE-AL, HI-01, and IL-10; Democrats pick up FL-25.

    AK-Sen will go as follows:

    Murkowski 35, McAdams 34, Miller 26 (I’m just not willing to go on enough of a limb to predict a McAdams victory, but I still think he’s set himself up well for an upset).

  2. Tomorrow is going to suck anyway, so why not make a prediction?

    Governors Races:


    Foley (R) by 4


    Kasich (R) by 4


    Kitzhaber (D) by 4

    Senate Races:


    Buck (R) by 3


    Reid (D) by 1


    Feingold by 1000 votes or less than 0.5% (My shot in the dark for Ben Masel)


    MN-Gov: Mark Dayton 44, Tom Emmer 40, and Tom Horner 16

    AK-Sen: Scott McAdams 20, Joe Miller 45, and Lisa Murkowski 35 (I’m counting on the Republicans to over perform here, as per recent experience)

    This is mostly seat-of-the-pants speculation.

  3. Preparing to be completely humiliated here:

    CT-Gov: Malloy 51, Foley 48

    OH-Gov: Kasich 50, Strickland 49

    OR-Gov: Kitzhaber 52, Dudley 47

    CO-Sen: Bennet 50, Buck 49

    NV-Sen: Reid 48, Angle 46

    WI-Sen: Johnson 52, Feingold 46

    FL-25: Garcia 50, Rivera 49

    PA-07: Meehan 51, Lentz 49

    VA-11: Connolly 52, Fimian 48

    MN-Gov: Dayton 43, Emmer 41, Horner 14

    AK-Sen: Murkowski 35, McAdams 32, Miller 31

    Oh boy. Here we go.

  4. Submitted via form.  Not gonna say what my percentage picks are, but I’m predicting a GOP sweep of all those races.  Most uncertain about MN-Gov, though.

  5. and surprised myself by predicting D victories in most of the races except for WI-Sen, AK-Sen, and PA-07. I think Strickland can pull this out based on the strong early voting. I can’t remember the exact percentages I entered, but I think Murkowski will make history in Alaska.

  6. Who thinks that he will win? It seems highly, highly unlikely to me. This area has such of an institutional GOP lean. I bet that GOTV operations for Rubio and Rivera are insane in FL-25. Remember when everyone thought Lincoln Diaz-Balart was going to be facing a really tough race in 2008 and he won with 58% of the vote?  

  7. I am bearish on some races, and more bullish on others. I think I made pretty reasonable predictions, but who knows how it will turn out tomorrow.

  8. CT-Gov

    Malloy by 5.67%


    Strickland by 1%


    Kitzhaber by 1.67%


    Buck by 1%


    Reid by 0.67%


    Johnson by 7.67%


    Rivera by 3%


    Meehan by 3.83%


    Connolly by 15%


    Dayton (D) 40.33%, Emmer (R) 39%, Horner (IP) 20.67%


    McAdams (D) 35.67%, Miller (R) 35%, Murkowski (WI) 29.33%

  9.     what babka is and whether I want some, but it is clear that you don’t want to give away any babka soon. AK Senate probably won’t be decided until after Thanksgiving, so don’t plan on eating babka this week unless you pay for it yourself.

       Is Babka just a New York thing? Can I get any in the Los Angeles area? Maybe I should just find a nice Armenian bakery in Glendale or East Hollywood and get some baklava. Mmmm good, baklava….

  10. CT-GOV- Malloy +1

    OH-GOV-Kasich +2

    OR-Gov- Kitzhaber +3

    CO-SEN- Bennett +1

    NV-SEN- Angle +3

    WI-SEN- Johnson +7

    FL25- Garcia +4

    PA-07- Meehan +9

    VA-11- Firmian +4

    MNGOV- Dayton 44 Emmer 35- Horner 20

    AKSEN- McAdams 27, Miller 35, Murkowski 37.

    And yeah, I’ll enter that into the online form too.  

  11. Check out the GOTV event staging areas:

    Illinois is covered, hopefully they can put Alexi over the edge and save a few CD’s here.

    Arizona looks pretty well blanketed, which is nice to see.  South Carolina is also surprisingly covered.

    Lest you think everywhere is equal, Wisconsin looks kind of abandoned.

  12. Net Loss of 40 in the House. Stronger than expected performances in NY (loss of only 2) and CA (no losses), thanks to weak top of the ballot with Whitman and Paladino. Net loss of 5 in the Senate, Harry Reid pulls it out thanks to strong turnout among Latinos. Murkowski and McAdams go to court over disputed write-in ballots. Net loss of 5 Governor’s mansions. Sink and Strickland squeak by.

    In my own California, McNerney wins by 3. Props 20, 21, 22,  and 25 pass, while props 19, 23, 24, 26, and 27 fail. Meanwhile, Meg Whitman decides to buy an island in the south pacific so at least she can be Governor of something.

  13. CT-Gov….Foley 50, Malloy 47

    OH-Gov….Kasich 51, Strickland 47

    OR-Gov….Dudley 49, Kitzhaber 48

    CO-Sen….Buck 50, Bennet 46

    NV-Sen….Angle 48, Reid 45, Others 7

    WI-Sen….Johnson 53, Feingold 46

    MN-Gov….Emmer 40, Dayton 38, Horner 18

    AK-Sen….Murkowski 37, Miller 34, McAdams 27

  14. …all the Democrats to win except Feingold.

    No guts, no glory.

    Kinda like what I do in my NCAA Tournament bracket when Iowa State makes it…I always pick the ‘Clones to make it at least one game further than I’m confident they will, since it would make me kick myself to pick us to lose a game we end up winning.

  15. CT-Gov – Foley by 8 (wind at his back)

    OH-Gov – Kasich by 2

    OR-Gov – Dudley by 1

    CO-Sen – Buck by 0 (near tie)

    NV-Sen – Angle by 5 (people underestimate how bad the economy is in NV)

    WI-Sen – Feingold by 1 (on a night like this I need a miracle and let this be it!)

    FL-25 – Rivera by 9 (Rubio for the save!)

    PA-07 – Meehan by 12

    VA-11 – Connolly by 3

    MN-Gov – Dayton 42, Emmers 47, Horner 11

    AK-Sen – McAdams 40, Miller 44, Murkowski 26

    (A large amount of Murkowski supporters will walk into the polls NOT see her name on the ballot and just vote for one of the names they see rather than writing her name in.  A few will even write her name in for Governor or House Rep instead of Senate.  And then you’ll have those who’ll vote for Frank Murkowski instead of Lisa Murkowski.  In other words there is a reason why few write-in campaigns ever work.)

    And finally I hope most of my predictions are wrong and the Democrats surprise us.

  16. McAdams-40%



    I think it’s asking way too much of americans to not only vote, but also to take a spelling test. I think most people will go to the polls and either forgo writing in her name or screw it up somehow (like right Lisa M. Lackey or something).

  17. Alaska Governor R

    Alabama Governor R

    Arkansas Governor D

    Arizona Governor R

    California Governor D

    Colorado Governor D

    Connecticut Governor D

    Florida Governor R

    Georgia Governor R

    Hawaii Governor D

    Iowa Governor R

    Idaho Governor R

    Illinois Governor R

    Kansas Governor R

    Massachusetts Governor D

    Maryland Governor D

    Maine Governor R

    Michigan Governor R

    Minnesota Governor D

    Nebraska Governor R

    New Hampshire Governor D

    New Mexico Governor R

    Nevada Governor R

    New York Governor D

    Ohio Governor R

    Oklahoma Governor R

    Oregon Governor D

    Pennsylvania Governor R

    Rhode Island Governor I

    South Carolina Governor R

    South Dakota Governor R

    Tennessee Governor R

    Texas Governor R

    Utah Governor R

    Vermont Governor D

    Wisconsin Governor R

    Wyoming Governor R

    Alaska Senate I

    Alabama Senate R

    Arkansas Senate R

    Arizona Senate R

    California Senate D

    Colorado Senate R

    Connecticut Senate D

    Delaware Senate D

    Florida Senate R

    Georgia Senate R

    Hawaii Senate D

    Iowa Senate R

    Idaho Senate R

    Illinois Senate R

    Indiana Senate R

    Kansas Senate R

    Kentucky Senate R

    Louisiana Senate R

    Maryland Senate D

    Missouri Senate R

    North Carolina Senate R

    North Dakota Senate R

    New Hampshire Senate R

    Nevada Senate D

    New York Senate D

    New York Senate D

    Ohio Senate R

    Oklahoma Senate R

    Oregon Senate D

    Pennsylvania Senate R

    South Carolina Senate R

    South Dakota Senate R

    Utah Senate R

    Vermont Senate D

    Washington Senate D

    Wisconsin Senate R

    West Virginia Senate D

    Republicans gain 41 House seats overall

    AL-2 D

    AL-5 R

    AR-1 D

    AR-2 R

    AR-4 D

    AZ-1 R

    AZ-3 R

    AZ-5 R

    AZ-7 D

    AZ-8 D

    CA-11 D

    CA-18 D

    CA-20 D

    CA-3 R

    CA-45 R

    CA-47 D

    CO-3 R

    CO-4 R

    CO-7 D

    CT-4 D

    CT-5 D

    DE-AL D

    FL-12 R

    FL-2 R

    FL-22 R

    FL-24 R

    FL-25 R

    FL-8 R

    GA-12 D

    GA-2 D

    GA-8 R

    HI-1 D

    IA-1 D

    IA-2 D

    IA-3 D

    ID-1 D

    IL-10 D

    IL-11 R

    IL-14 D

    IL-17 R

    IL-8 D

    IN-2 D

    IN-8 R

    IN-9 D

    KS-3 R

    KY-3 D

    KY-6 D

    LA-2 D

    LA-3 R

    MA-10 D

    MA-4 D

    MA-5 D

    MA-6 D

    MD-1 R

    ME-1 D

    ME-2 D

    MI-1 R

    MI-3 R

    MI-7 D

    MI-9 D

    MN-1 D

    MN-6 R

    MN-8 D

    MO-3 D

    MO-4 D

    MS-1 R

    MS-4 D

    NC-11 D

    NC-2 D

    NC-4 D

    NC-7 D

    NC-8 D

    ND-AL R

    NE-2 R

    NH-1 R

    NH-2 D

    NJ-12 D

    NJ-3 R

    NJ-6 D

    NM-1 R

    NM-2 R

    NM-3 D

    NV-3 R

    NY-1 D

    NY-13 D

    NY-19 R

    NY-20 D

    NY-22 D

    NY-23 D

    NY-24 D

    NY-25 D

    NY-29 R

    NY-4 D

    OH-1 R

    OH-10 D

    OH-12 R

    OH-13 D

    OH-15 R

    OH-16 R

    OH-18 D

    OH-6 D

    OR-1 D

    OR-4 D

    OR-5 D

    PA-10 R

    PA-11 R

    PA-12 D

    PA-15 R

    PA-17 D

    PA-3 R

    PA-4 D

    PA-6 R

    PA-7 R

    PA-8 R

    RI-1 D

    SC-5 R

    SD-AL R

    TN-4 R

    TN-5 D

    TN-6 R

    TN-8 R

    TX-17 R

    TX-23 D

    TX-25 D

    TX-27 D

    UT-2 D

    VA-11 D

    VA-2 R

    VA-5 R

    VA-9 D

    WA-2 D

    WA-3 R

    WA-8 R

    WA-9 D

    WI-3 D

    WI-7 R

    WI-8 R

    WV-1 D

    WV-3 D

  18. CT-GOV: Foley 48 Malloy 52

    OH-GOV: Strickland 49  Kasich 51

    OR-GOV: Kitzhaber 50 Dudley 45

    CO-SEN: Bennet 51  Buck 49

    NV-SEN: Reid 46  Angle 43 Ashjian 3  NOTA: 8

    WI-SEN: Johnson 51 Feingold 48

    FL-25: Garcia 51, Rivera 45 Others 4

    PA-07: Meehan 53 Lentz 47

    VA-11: Connolly 54 Fimian 46

    MN-GOV: Dayton 46 Emmer 41 Horner 13

    AK-GOV: Miller 34 McAdams 36 Murkowski 30

    Net House Loss -35

    Net Senate Loss 4 (ND, AR, WI, -IN +AK)  We also lose NH, NC, and OH, MO, LA, etc. but they’re GOP seats to start with.

  19. CT-Gov: Foley 50 Malloy 48

    OH-Gov: Strickland 49, Kasich

    OR-Gov: Kitzhaber 51, Dudley 48

    CO-Sen: Buck 51, Bennet 48

    NV-Sen: Reid 48, Angle 47

    WI-Sen: Johnson 52, Feingold 46

    FL-25: Garcia 50, Rivera 49

    PA-07: Meehan 53, Lentz 47

    VA-11: Connolly 53, Fimian 46

    MN-Gov: Dayton 44, Emmer 40, Horner 14

    AK-Sen: Miller 35, Murkowski 33, McAdams 29

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