I put this in the comments of the open thread earlier today, but I’m confident in my numbers to make a proclamation.
As it stands right now, Kamala Harris is up by .2%, or 14,000 votes according to the CA SOS website, which was updated at 8 am this morning.
There are still around 900,000 ballots left uncounted.
Here are the top counties, their outstanding votes, and by how large a margin each county voted for a candidate.
Los Angeles: 208,513 (Harris +13.5%)
San Diego: 71,970 (Cooley +13.8%)
Orange: 54,316 (Cooley +29.2%)
San Joaquin: 39,715 (Cooley +7.6%)
Contra Costa: 38,413 (Harris +13.3%)
San Bernardino: 36,000 (Cooley +5%)
Sonoma: 35,500 (Harris +24.2%)
Riverside: 29,700 (Cooley +19%)
Monterey: 29,470 (Harris +15.2%)
Santa Cruz: 27,905 (Harris +34.1%!)
Marin: 27,050 (Harris +31.2%)
San Mateo: 26,812 (Harris +21.6%)
Alameda: 24,500 (Harris +40.7%!!)
Sacramento: 21,621 (Cooley +2.6%)
San Francisco: 21,376 (Harris +50.4%!!!!!!)
Using some mind numbing number crunching, I project that Kamala Harris takes it home with a net 64,584 from all of the above counties combined.
All of those counties account for around 694,000 of the 898,458 unprocessed votes, or 77% of the uncounted votes.
This means that for cooley to overtake that 64,584 deficit from the remaining uncounted counties, he would have to, on average, win them by around a 32% margin.
While not impossible, I find it highly unlikely for this to occur. The biggest margin Cooley received from any county that I can see is from Kern, when he got a 36.5% margin. He is going to have to do better than that with outstanding counties like santa Clara that went for Harris by 18.2%, and has 8,000 more outstanding ballots than Kern.
Unless the last of these ballots go overwhelmingly for Cooley, I think Cooley is a goner, and California will have its first Bi-Racial AG.
Congrats Kamala.
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voted Cooley by mistake. Subtract one from him. I think Harris will probably win but it is still hard to tell. I mean 900,000 ballots. She’ll probably end up on top but I still do not feel 100% confident. Still like I said I think she’ll probably win.
with the last update on the results. These nearly 900k ballots are the same as when Harris had only a 4k votes lead. We dont know which counties reported for those additional votes.
Nevertheless there are over 160k votes MORE to count in counties Harris won than in Cooley counties, so I would say it looks good for her.