What a difference one state senator makes. If the GOP takes the State Senate-a 32-30 majority-there will have to be a compromise plan, just like the one created in 2000. With the delegation likely going to be 21-8, the GOP will look to shoring up their reps. The Dem goal will be to take out all the Republicans. However, Dems, could only realistically keep it 27-2. (Unless they go with abgin’s famous, excellent plan.)
So I split the difference. I know some speculated that they’ll trade one Dem for one Republican, but I think this deal could realistically happen. With New York likely losing two seats, I eliminated three Republican seats. The new delegation, in my opinion, will likely be 22-5. Let’s get down to the nitty gritty:
District 1 – BLUE
Incumbent: Randy Altschuler (R-St. James)
Obama: 49%
McCain: 50%
Old District: Obama 51% McCain 48%; Kerry 49% Bush 49%
White: White: 88% Black: 2% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 6% Other: 1%
Notes: Part of the compromise is that Altschuler gets two points safer. Though still a swingy district, Republicans are favored here at the federal level.
District 2 – DARK GREEN
Incumbent: Steve Israel (D-Huntington)
Obama: 60%
McCain: 40%
Old District: 56% McCain 43%; Kerry 53% Bush 45%
White: 67% Black: 12% Native: 0% Asian: 4% Hispanic: 15% Other: 2%
Notes: Israel is already safe, but now this district is safe in any wave, for any Democratic candidate.
District 3 – PURPLE
Incumbent: Peter King (R-Seaford)
Obama: 45%
McCain: 54%
Old District: Obama 47% McCain 52%; Kerry 47% Bush 52%
White: 87% Black: 2% Native: 0% Asian: 4% Hispanic: 6% Other: 1%
Notes: A Republican Long Island sinkhole, the district is now safe for any King successor. If Dems get the Senate and want to be ambitious, they can destroy the district and gerrymander every Republican out in Long Island.
District 4 – RED
Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola)
Obama: 66%
McCain: 33%
Old District: Obama 58% McCain 41%; Kerry 55% Bush 41%
White: 48% Black: 19% Native: 0% Asian: 11% Hispanic: 16% Other: 6%
Notes: This is one of four suburban-New York City districts, as opposed to only two now. McCarthy is safe forever now. The district is now minority-majority but has a plurality of whites.
District 5 – YELLOW
Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights)
Obama: 63%
McCain: 36%
Old District: Obama 63% McCain 36%; Obama 63% McCain 36%
White: 43% Black: 5% Native: 0% Asian: 23% Hispanic: 27% Other: 2%
Notes:
District 6 – DARK GREENISH BLUE
Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D-Queens)
Obama: 87%
McCain: 12%
Old District: Obama 89% McCain 11%; Kerry 84% Bush 15%
White: 17% Black: 51% Native: 0% Asian: 6% Hispanic: 19% Other: 6%
Notes: To make up for the loss of two districts, Meek has to expand to Brooklyn to get more black precincts.
District 7 – GRAY
Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D-Manhattan)
Obama: 93%
McCain: 7%
Old District: Obama 93% McCain 6%; Kerry 90% Bush 9%
White: 20% Black: 28% Native: 0% Asian: 3% Hispanic: 46% Other: 2%
Notes: Now entirely in Manhattan
District 8 – DARK PURPLE
Incumbent: Ed Towns (D-Brooklyn)
Obama: 86%
McCain: 14%
Old District: Obama 91% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%
White: 59% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 17% Hispanic: 14% Other: 3%
Notes:
District 9 – LIGHT TURQUOISE
Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D)
Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)
Population: 699,891
Obama: 61%
McCain: 38%
Old District: Obama 55% McCain 44%; Kerry 56% Bush 44%
White: 50% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 16% Hispanic: 22% Other: 5%
Notes: I had to shore up this district, even though Weiner would be fine otherwise. It’s just that Weiner will probably run for another office some day (especially mayor), so I wanted to make sure that a moderate (probably Jewish) Republican couldn’t win here. It’s pretty gerrymandered to be a slightly majority white district. Anyway, his base is here and Weiner should win by a large margin.
District 10 – DARK PINK
Incumbent: Edolphus Towns (D)
Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)
Population: 699,919
Obama: 85%
McCain: 15%
Old District: Obama 91% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%
White: 22% Black: 52% Native: 0% Asian: 5% Hispanic: 18% Other: 23%
Notes: Pretty much the same Brooklyn-based VRA-protected district, but it takes in icky some icky Brooklyn precincts to help Weiner.
District 11 – GREEN
Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)
Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)
Population: 700,196
Obama: 84%
McCain: 16%
Old District: Obama 90% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%
White: 25% Black: 54% Native: 0% Asian: 7% Hispanic: 11% Other: 4%
Notes: Same deal as District 10.
District 12 – MEDIUM BLUE
Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez (D)
Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)
Population: 700,735
Obama: 86%
McCain: 13%
Old District: Obama 86% McCain 13%; Kerry 80% Bush 19%
White: 23% Black: 11% Native: 0% Asian: 11% Hispanic: 51% Other: 3%
Notes: A VRA-protected Hispanic district, Velazquez sheds Manhattan and takes in the Hispanic parts of Brooklyn and Queens. The district gets a somewhat big makeover to make it Hispanic-majority, but I’m sure there will be no complaints for anyone.
District 13 – TEAL
Incumbent: Michael McMahon (D)
Area: All of Richmond County (Staten Island)/Part of New York County (Manhattan)
Population: 700,676
Obama: 62%
McCain: 37%
Old District: Obama 49% McCain 51%; Kerry 45% Bush 55%
White: White: 71% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 11% Other: 2%
Notes: My Staten Island-based district is now tethered to downtown Manhattan to make the district a safe Democratic district.
District 14 DARK GREEN
Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)
Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)
Population: 699,854
Obama: 80%
McCain: 19%
Old District: Obama 78% McCain 21%; Kerry 74% Bush 25%
White: 64% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 18% Other: 3%
Notes: My hometown district, Maloney gains parts of Brooklyn to enable Velazquez to have a Hispanic-majority district. Goes all the way up to the limits of the Upper East Side on 96th Street.
District 15 – ORANGE
Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D)
Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Queens County (Queens)
Population: 700,198
Obama: 91%
McCain: 8%
Old District: Obama 93% McCain 6%; Kerry 90% Bush 9%
White: 17% Black: 27% Native: 0% Asian: 6% Hispanic: 47% Other: 3%
Notes: Rangel’s district is plurality Hispanic (and almost majority Hispanic). I would bet he wouldn’t like this district, as he could be primaried by an ambitious Hispanic legislator who would target him on ethics issues. Otherwise, it loses all parts of the Upper West Side, which never really made sense for him.
District 16 – LIGHT GREEN
Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)
Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)
Population: 700,500
Obama: 95%
McCain: 5%
Old District: Obama 95% McCain 5%; Kerry 89% Bush 10%
White: 3% Black: 33% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 60% Other: 2%
Notes: The VRA-protected South Bronx district makes no substantive changes. This district would undoubtedly have the fewest white people in the country.