Many other people have posted their virginia maps, so here is mine. With split control of the state legislature, this is an incumbent protection map that locks in the 8R-3D split in the state delegation.
Northern Virginia
VA-08 (Purple)
This remains the most Democratic district in NoVA, and a safe district for Moran. It loses the areas south of Alexandria to the 11th, but picks up McLean, Herndon, and Sterling from the 10th. These areas were the most democratic parts of the 10th, so doing this shores up that district for the Republicans.
VA-11 (Bright Green)
(*full disclosure: I worked as a paid canvasser for the Connolly campaign in 2010, but that hasn’t biased the way I’ve drawn this map. Really. I no longer have any ties to Gerry Connolly or his campaign*)
This once-swing district has now become solidly Democratic, almost as much as the 8th to the north. Gerry Connolly is now safe, one of the few improvements for democrats under this map. It picks up the areas south of Alexandria from the 8th, loses western Prince William (the most Republican part of the district) to the 1st, and loses the most Republican parts of Fairfax County in Oakton, Burke, and West Springfield to the 10th. It now stands as an amalgamation of heavily Democratic Dale City, Woodbridge, and Occoquan in Prince William with the most democratic areas of Fairfax county south of Route 7 (roughly). Also interesting is that Keith Fimian’s home in Oakton is now in VA-10, so if he wants to run for congress again maybe he can try to teabag Frank Wolf.
VA-10 (Magenta)
This was the fastest growing district in Virginia by far, needing to shrink by about 110,000 people in it’s previous incarnation. Previously a slightly GOP-leaning swing district that voted for Obama in 08. Republican Frank Wolf has the district completely locked down due in large part to his ability to secure federal earmarks for projects like the Silver Line DC Metro extension in this area. But after Wolf retires, this district would have been extremely competitive and a fiscally moderate, socially liberal dem might even have been slightly favored here. This redistricting aims to prevent that. The district cedes areas like McLean and Herndon in Fairfax Co that leaned to the Dems to the 8th. It now only has tentacles that reach into Fairfax and eat up basically all the Republican precincts there in areas like Great Falls, Burke, and Oakton. It also gives up the slightly D-leaning swing region of Manassas to the 1st district, and picks up some Appalachian counties from the 6th. I still haven’t made this district totally republican, as that is almost impossible. It is competitive in the case of a Wolf retirement, but definitely less than before and the Republican running to succeed wolf would have an advantage. And in 6 or 8 years it’s easy to see this district returning to swing status, as the population growth in Loudon County is making it more and more democratic.
Eastern/Central VA
VA-01 (Blue)
This district was Republican leaning in its previous incarnation, however the fact that it is growing more democratic as the population shifts from the shrinking southern areas around Hampton Roads and Williamsburg to the DC exurbs makes it possible that when Wittman retires the old incarnation of this district could go dem. The new incarnation is not that much more Republican, if at all, owing to the need to shore up the 2nd and the 10th. It loses Fredricksburg, previously one of the most democratic parts of the district, to Eric Cantor’s 7th district. It gains the Manassas area from the 10th, and some of western Prince William from the 11th. The 2nd took up some extremely red areas in the Poqouson and York County areas. Overall the shift is maybe a point or two in the GOP’s favor.
VA-02 (Dark Green)
This district was about two points more Democratic than the 1st to the north, allowing Glenn Nye to win in 08. Republicans will want to prevent that from ever happening again, and this map accomplishes that. This district has taken on the City of Poqouson and much of York County, which it needed due to population loss in the Hampton Roads area. These new areas voted 75% for McCain and 80% (!!) for McDonnell. So this definitely means Scott Rigell has a safe seat barring some kind of total implosion.
VA-03 (Dark Purple)
Very little change here. Still safe blue. Due to population loss had to take on the heavily democratic area of Mechanicsville outside of Richmond.
VA-04 (Red)
Very little change here, too. Had to shrink a tiny bit due to population growth, so I gave the town of Emporia to the 5th which needed more population due to the total facelift I gave it plus the fact that the entire SW area of virginia had been losing population. Still a solid red district.
VA-07 (Grey)
This district has gotten a lot more compact now, but it has stayed solidly republican. The area that previously stretched north into the rural areas has been taken out and given to the 5th district. In exchange, the district has gained Fredricksburg from the 1st. And, as previously mentioned, the heavily blue area of Mechanicsville has been given to the 3rd. Overall, the district hasn’t really changed much in terms of partisanship, but it looks much better, IMO.
Western Virginia
VA-06 (Teal)
This solidly republican district has shed a bit of it’s redness in the interest of helping shore up Hurt in VA-05. It has taken on the liberal Charlottesville area and ceded the Lynchburg area. This district has probably become significantly more democratic, although it is still very republican. Goodlatte won by 62% in 2008 and had no major-party opponent in 2010, so he should be safe, but a blue dog might be able to win this seat under open-seat conditions in a good year for dems. Tom Perriello would have a good chance at this seat if it were open, although I personally hope he is senator/governor by then.
VA-05 (Yellow)
This is probably the most changed district in this map. It has lost Charlottesville, previously the most liberal area of the district and home of its soon-to-be-former congressman Tom Perriello. In exchange, it has gained the northernmost part of the 7th, the tiny town of emporia from the 4th, and the city of lynchburg from the 6th. This gave it a little too much population, so I gave some of the westernmost part of the district to VA-09 to compensate for the 9th’s population loss. I may have gone overkill on this district. It was previously a republican leaning district, now it is an extremely safe district that even a blue dog in an open seat in a democratic wave year would have a lot of trouble winning.
VA-09 (Cyan)
Not much has changed here. This was a safe republican district before, and Rick Boucher held out largely due to his personal popularity, so Morgan Griffith doesn’t need much shoring up. The district has been losing population faster than any other district in VA, so it had to take on some areas from the 5th, but these don’t change the basic shape or the partisanship of the district at all.
This map should hold it’s 8-3 partisan composition for the forseeable future. The only thing that could change that is a Frank Wolf retirement, but the 10th is designed pretty much as best as possible to hold in that case. With Loudon county trending Democratic, though, this district should be a top democratic target in 6-8 years. This map has delayed the 10th’s transition to a Democratic target by a few years at least, though.
Some people (including myself) have raised the possibility that Republicans could simply do a mid-decade redistricting once they pick up the state senate in next year’s elections (which I and many other people on here believe is more than likely than not). However, what doing this map has taught me is that it is pretty close to impossible for Republicans to get a better than 8-3 split in congress. The only way for them to do better is to weaken the 10th significantly (and make the 11th more Republican leaning). Wolf could probably hold on in this kind of scenario, but in my view that would make it far too easy for the Democrats to pick up this area once Wolf retires (he is 71 so that may not be long). If they weaken the 10th too much, the Dems could even maybe knock off Wolf in a few years. So there’s not much potential benefit to the Republicans in a mid decade redistricting. An 8-3 split (that could become 7-4 at worst) is pretty damn good for them in a very purple state like VA.
Loading ...
should agree to a map like this is if they can get a safe state senate map in return. Otherwise, they should deadlock and let a court draw the legislative maps.
Just a few ideas:
–You characterize VA-04 as a safe Republican seat, which is awkward because Obama won it. Forbes seems to have it locked down for now, but it’d probably be relatively competitive if it were open. Democrats would probably like to keep this district like this (if not make it even better, not that that’s a realistic goal), but Republicans would probably want to move it to the right by a few points. Petersburg is heavily Black, heavily Democratic, and very close to the 3rd District. Moving that town alone would turn the district into a McCain-voting district.
–I agree that you made VA-01 a few points more Republican, but I don’t think that you necessarily made it safe if Wittman retires/runs for higher office in the next decade. Obama almost won this district ’08, and all that happens with this redistrict is some heavily-Democratic precincts (along with more than a few heavily-Republican ones) are swapped out for some moderately Democratic ones. Those parts of Prince William are growing rapidly and getting more and more Democratic, so unless 2008 was a complete aberration, this district will be right back where it was in a couple of cycles.
I don’t fault you for that, the fact of the matter is that NoVa has the population and demographics for three leaning to solidly Democratic congressional districts at this point, and unless they throw Wolf to the wolves (forgive the pun), they have to crack a lot of Democratic territory, and Wittman is most likely to get the short end of the stick. I just think that this part of the gerrymander might be a bit too optimistic.
Southeast Virginia ought to have 2 or 3 Democratic leaning districts: one in Richmond, one in the Hampton Roads area, and maybe a Democratic-leaning district (more probably a Republican-leaning one) in the rest.
Instead you get one extremely strong Democratic district and the rest Republican-leaning (at best for Democrats).
Is he in your new VA-09? I’m not a fan, but he’d be better than Griffith.
First of all – nice explanations and thanks for the detail.
Having seen a lot of these maps being drawn up lately that are similar (trying to protect an 8-3 delegation) I have a 2 part question for you guys out there.
1. What is the incentive for Senate Democrats to accept something like this other than drawing up safer Senate districts for themselves (this may be the answer)?
2. Assuming a perfect storm in our favor which is that the GOP compromises and creates competitive districts what is really the best that we can ask for? I know they are not going to play ball with making the 7th competitive unfortunately. I would assume the best we could ever do is to make the 11th more Democratic, 10th and 1st more Republican, not have the 3rd become a dumping ground for all African-American voters in southern VA which could make the 4th and 2nd more competitive and losing Conservative parts of SW VA to the 9th while retaining C’Ville and Albermarle in the 5th. Obviously I am getting way to greedy here I realize!
That said VA is just about as even as a partisan state as there is and an 8-3 map where the districts solidly lean Republican just doesn’t seem right. I realize part of it is that the 8th and 3rd serve as massive Democratic voter dumps but there should be at least 2 districts that are drawn to between R+2 and D+2 given VA’s lean but here and most maps I have seen (and logically thinking of the VA GOP) that won’t happen. Couldn’t there be a 2nd VRA district created given that the African American population is 20% of the state? Wouldn’t Courts likely favor something that would benefit us?
Lots of questions I know but thanks for your thoughts.