Depending on how you feel about Obama 48-49% districts, this could be a dummymander instead. There’s really no good way I’ve seen to draw Eastern PA with less than 5 districts where Dems have a good chance of winning, and they only have 4 seats there now. This has only 4 districts at more than Obama 53%, and one of them is Charlie Dent’s Lehigh Valley district, which he seems to be OK with.
The prospects for the GOP are much better in western PA; the Democrats have 3 seats, and I see no reason the map will give them more than 1 there. There’s definitely an argument to draw two safe D seats rather than risk a dummymander, but I assume one of Critz/Altmire will be in real trouble in 2012.
I had a bit of trouble matching incumbents to districts; I paid no attention to where incumbents lived while drawing this. In particular, the 6th through 9th districts are rather different than the current configuration.
The map: 
Philadelphia: http://img842.imageshack.us/im…
CD1 (Bob Brady): Obama 86%, White 33%, Black 43%, Hispanic 18%
CD2 (Chaka Fattah): Obama 88%, White 32%, Black 57%
CD3 (Allyson Schwartz, was 13th): Obama 63%, White 80%
CD6 (Jim Gerlach [edit: apparently this is more like Pat Meehan’s district]): Obama 53%
Three of these districts are very safe D, the fourth is as Republican as I could make in this area. The 6th and 7th get scrambled here; I’m not sure who would run in which district.
Southeast PA: http://img254.imageshack.us/im…
CD4 (Mike Fitzpatrick, was 8th): Obama 53% – Bucks County
CD5 (Charlie Dent): Obama 56% – Lehigh Valley
CD7 (Pat Meehan [edit: Jim Gerlach]): Obama 48% – Chester County, Lancaster
CD8 (Joe Pitts?): Obama 52% – Reading, Lebanon, Lancaster
CD9 (Tim Holden?): Obama 48% – New Castle, Harrisburg, York
Keeping Bucks County and the Lehigh Valley counties together minimizes the level of mayhem that can be done here. Fitzpatrick should be in a slightly easier district, I’m not sure if Dent is though. Joe Pitts certainly isn’t happy, though he might run in CD7 instead. Tim Holden probably can survive in one of the R-leaning districts, though Harrisburg and Reading are now split.
The whole state (again): http://img231.imageshack.us/im…
CD10 (Tom Marino): Obama 51% – Northeast PA – gets a lot more of Scranton than before. Tried to even the PVI with CD11.
CD11 (Lou Barletta): Obama 49% – Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Williamsport – Should be more friendly.
CD12 (Todd Platts): Obama 39% – Harrisburg, York – safe R district, nothing to see here.
CD13 (Bill Shuster): Obama 42 – Altoona, State College – safe R district, nothing to see here.
CD14 (Mark Critz? GT Thompson?): Obama 49% – Johnstown, Erie – This district picks up half of Erie, and crawls through the T to Johnstown. I assume Critz would run in the Johnstown district, but a lot of the Democrats would be new. Also the closest thing to GT Thompson’s 5th; I’m sure he won’t be happy having a potentially-competitive district.
CD15 (Mike Kelly): Obama 44% – Erie, New Castle – this district loses about half of Erie, and gains more Republican areas. Should be safe for Kelly.
Pittsburgh Area / SW PA: http://img718.imageshack.us/im…
CD16: Obama 44% – Indiana, Pittsburgh – I don’t see an obvious incumbent here, perhaps Critz or Altmire run.
CD17 (Mike Doyle): Obama 67%, White 73% – should be even safer D than it is now.
CD18 (Tim Murphy, Jason Altmire?): Obama 46% – Pittsburgh western suburbs – some Democratic areas in the district, but as a whole it’s unfriendly from a PVI view. Altmire may end up running here, it’s friendlier than the 16th.
Lots of Eastern Pennsylvania could fall in a tough year for the GOP. The old PA-5 was essentially broken down between the new PA-14 and PA-10, which both are potentially shaky districts. I imagine Western Pennsylvania will end up with another more secure Democratic district, just to sink votes to strengthen nearby Republicans. Overall, this map would probably end up being trouble for the GOP at some point.
that I am prepared to say a Democrat could never win: the 12th and the 13th.
Every Democrat has a seat to run in, and some Republicans could be running scared (i.e., Jim Gerlach). Tim Murphy would probably be pissed. Fingers crossed, but as a Democrat I would be happy with this map, given the circumstances.
By making Tim Holden’s district hideous.
1, 2, and 3 obviously can’t go anywhere, but you can snake Tim Holden’s district across the state and eat up Dem votes.
This seems more like a bipartisan compromise than a GOP gerrymander. Pitts, Marino, and Thompson are all going to be angry with this, and Meehan and Barletta are the only real winners.
The GOP is going to give Holden a much, much safer district than this by sending his district up to Scranton perhaps, allowing them to help Barletta and Marino without hurting Thompson. They might also loosen Platts up and give one of the SEPA Republicans a tendrel into the T.
In the West, Altmire will get a leg into Erie. Other than that, I think what you drew is pretty accurate, as are your Philly-area districts.
Fitzpatrick is fine.
Gerlach wins because he wins Chester County.
Meehan just won in Delaware County.
For some reason, you flipflopped their territory.
This is a great map in how the lines are not messy but for the Republicans, it can switch in a Democratic year so they will be careful. Right now I am working on a map that is 10-8 R but all the Republicans are safe.
But I think it’s a dummymander.
CD5 is adjusted slightly, but stays at 56% Obama.
Harrisburg: http://img152.imageshack.us/im…
CD8 – 46% (was 52% before) – loses Reading to a tentacle, picks up population in York County.
CD9 – 60% (was 48%) – gains tentacles to Reading and Scranton, loses basically everything else.
Scranton: http://img80.imageshack.us/img…
CD10 – 48% (was 51%) – loses part of Scranton, gains counties in the T. Could probably be balanced a bit with CD11 to make both of them in the 45-46% range; Williamsport is currently split between the two.
CD11 – 43% (was 49%) – loses part of Scranton/Wilkes Barre, moves generally south to gain population.
CD12 – 42% (was 39%) – moves around a bit to keep continuity, but no significant changes.
It could just as easily end up being a 16-2 Democratic. Well, not “as easily” but it’s within the realm of possibility. As I’ve said before, I think the Republicans in quite a few places, including Pennsylvania, are faced with the option to dummymander (and risk blowout) or concede several districts to us.
The Western portion of PA can be done much better as well. You can combine all the Dem portion of Altmire’s and Critz’ district along with Downtown Erie. That would shore up Kelly and Murphy for the whole decade. The way it is currently drawn could see a lot of flips in wave elections.
I think the Republican redistricters will do the Harrisburg-to-Scranton as shown above for Holden and a Erie-to-the-Pittsburgh-border for Altmire to shore up the 2 Democrats in red territory they can’t get rid of. Then they will break apart the Critz district and combine him with either Shuster or Thompson, because there is no incentive for Republicans to maintain the Murtha-mander.
In the Philly-region, if the Republicans were smart they would give the Democrats 4 districts. But I know they will try for 3, and then the whole thing will collapse on them. I think they will split Bucks County, give the southeastern edge to Schwartz in exchange for more conservative inland Montgomery County.