Here’s something fun. There are ten Republican senators up for re-election in 2012, so my question to you is, who among that group is most likely to get teabagged to death? There are of course a lot of factors which go into this question, but at the end of the day, all we’re asking is which GOP incumbents are most likely to get derailed on their way to seeking their party’s (re-)nomination?
I’ve taken a stab at ranking this gruesome tensome, in order of likelihood of getting consumed by the tea-flavored beast:
- Olympia Snowe
- Orrin Hatch
- Kay Bailey Hutchison
- Richard Lugar
- Bob Corker
- Scott Brown
- John Ensign
- Roger Wicker
- Jon Kyl
- John Barrasso
Ensign deserves an asterisk. While he’s probably vulnerable in a primary, I don’t really see such a race turning into a teabagger-fueled challenge. So on an ordinary list, he’d rate much higher, but here, he’s toward the bottom of the pack.
What do you say? How would you rank this list? I see a lot of juicy targets for the Sharron Angle/Christine O’Donnell brigade!
Though I’d put Hatch slightly ahead of Snowe based on the lean of his state and the fact that he’s actively gone out of his way to tell the teabaggers to go Cheney themselves. Still, both Hatch and Snowe are facing closed caucuses, so they’re both pretty hosed.
KBH’s wounds are all self-inflicted, but she doesn’t have just teabaggers running against her. It could be an IN-05/TX-Gov 2006 situation where so many challengers run that she wins with 29% of the vote, which is what I’m leaning towards right now. Or she could just keep her promise to the voters and resign.
I’d actually be surprised if Lugar lost. Indiana Republicans are crazy, but he’s built up literally generations of bipartisan goodwill, it’s not a closed primary, and the Marion County vote for him will be substantial, as always.
Everyone below that is safe unless something really weird happens, with Ensign, as you say, being an asterisk. He IS facing a caucus, after all.
As you say, Ensign could lose, but it wouldn’t clearly be because of teabaggers.
1) KBH, 2)Orrin Hatch, 3) Snowe, 4) Corker, 5) Lugar.
Unfortunately, Ensign might not last out his term; any appointed replacement would be far stronger politically.
I expect teabagger challenges to Snowe, Hatch and Lugar, with the first two being successful.
I agree with the first six on your list, although I’d rank Brown above Corker. I just wonder how big the Tea party bench is in Massachusetts. Hudak perhaps? Whether KBH retires or not, the Texas GOP primary will be a battle royale. I wonder if Debra Medina will run for the Senate…
Has Kyl, Wicker, or Barrasso done anything extraordinarily offensive or bipartisan to merit a tea party challenge besides perhaps a vote or two for TARP?
Who among these ten will be running in closed primaries? I think that will help further put the potential precariousness of their situation in perspective…
Orrin Hatch
Olympia Snowe
Kay Bailey Hutchison
Richard Lugar
Bob Corker
Scott Brown
John Ensign
I’m having trouble imagining Tea Party challenges to Roger Wicker, Jon Kyl, or John Barrasso. What did they do “wrong”?
1. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
2. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)
3. Sen. John Ensign (R-NV)
4. Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN)
5. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
6. Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN)
7. Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA)
8. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS)
9. Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY)
10. Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
It’s possible that none of those people will win their primaries. Lugar has the best chance, but Indiana is conservative enough for a Teabagger to gain enough support to win.
Though I think that was partially strategic, because the seat would be easy to hold in the general election.
I think that I would go with the following:
1. Snowe – this is as close to a lock as possible. The conservative base hates her because she is a “liberal”
2. Hatch – welcome Senator Jason Chaffetz
3. Corker – his comments about being “adults” and an overall very conservative base in his state isn’t going to do him any favors
4. Lugar – his work for the START Treaty and voting for Obama’s SC Justice picks won’t help. I think he’s too popular though with the non-base type and with an open primary he should be fine.
Ensign is done for other reasons more that he couldn’t keep something in his pants. KBH is going to retire so I am leaving her off my list.
Not only is Utah more Tea-Party friendly, but the repercussions of replacing Hatch are far less, and tea partiers have one prominent possible challenger (Jason Chaffetz). And its a convention, not a primary. So far and beyond I see Hatch easily losing in a convention.
On the other hand, there are repercussions if Olympia Snowe is not the GOP nominee, especially considering that if she is defeated in a primary (and not retired outright) that a candidate would be to far right for Maine. Perhaps tea party activists see LePage as an example of a conservative, but the left wing vote was split between a weak Democrat and a strong independent in the election, and LePage will likely strong support Snowe in the primary. Still probably number 2.
I think Hutchinson is simply going to retire and I seriously doubt Lugar will be seriously challenged. He is one of the best US Senators today and Indiana Republicans know this.
Of the others, Wicker, Barrasso, and Kyl don’t even belong on this list. MA Republicans aren’t foolish enough to dump Brown, just having some federal office after such a long drought will overcome any tea flavored dissatisfaction with Brown. And I don’t know what the deal is about Corker, hes a pretty conservative Republican, just a little more amenable to bipartisanship than what the normal conservative is. Much less than Hatch and Lugar for sure.
1. Orrin Hatch–He might survive, but I have serious doubts that he will survive in the convention.
2. Richard Lugar–His only problem is that he doesn’t use the teabagger rhetoric.
3. Kay Bailey Hutchison–I think she’s definitely in trouble amongst the teabaggers.
4. Olympia Snowe–the only reason why I have her as high on this list is that she’s one of the few quasi-moderates within the GOP senate ranks. I think she will survive mostly because Maine seems to be more tolerant to Republicans in the mold of Snowe. Could be wrong…
5. Bob Corker—I don’t think he will be bitten, but Tennessee has definitely taken a hard turn to the right.
6. John Ensign–He too will probably survive a fringe teabagger, but he has enough baggage that it could spill over into the teabagger mania.
7. Scott Brown–He’s another Republican that’s not conservative enough for the hard right, but I imagine the teabaggers know that they can’t get one amongst its ranks to survive a general election. Cough, ODonnell, Cough…
8. Roger Wicker—he will be fine.
9. John Kyl–he will also be fine.
10. John Barrasso–he’s definitely in the mold of the teabaggers. He will also be fine.
WILL GET TEABAGGED:
1. Hatch (D.O.A.)
2. Snowe (probably will still win as an Indie)
3. Lugar (crossover Dems cannot save him)
4. Corker
5. Brown (if they can find a challenger)
WILL LOSE FOR OTHER REASONS:
6. Hutchison (also gets teabagged)
7. Ensign (pushed out from the inside)
MAY GET A CHALLENGE:
8. Kyl
9. Wicker
PROBABLY SAFE:
10. Barrasso
Excluding Scott Brown, who was not in the Senate during these votes…
* All of them voted for TARP except Barrasso and Wicker.
* All of them voted for Eric Holder except Barrasso, Wicker, Ensign, and Hutchison.
* All of them voted for Tim Geithner except Kyl, Lugar, Wicker, Hutchison, and Barrasso.
And if ideological purity is not enough:
* All of them have been in Washington for many years except Brown, Corker, and Barrasso.
That leaves Barrasso as the only one without a glaring reason to get teabagged, and he was appointed by a Democratic governor.
None of the poor suckers are safe.
is that Tennessee has an open primary, and no runoff, both of which could help him survive. The lack of a runoff helps because two conservatives could split the teabagger vote and allow Corker to win with 40%; this basically describes how he was elected in 2006 (and how Bill Haslam got elected governor.) The open primary helps as well, because if Democrats decide that the race is hopeless for them, they might cross over and decide they’d rather stomach Corker for six more years rather than someone like Wamp.
1. Hutchison
2. Hatch
(defeated in primary/convention by Tea Partier.)
—————
3. Snowe
(bolts from GOP, runs as Independent, wins in general.)
—————
4. Ensign
(has 50/50 shot of winning primary, Lean D general if he wins nod.)
—————
5. Lugar
6. Brown
7. Corker
(Coats win proves establishment Republicans can still win in IN; no credible Tea Party challengers for Brown; Corker a snooze, but, like Richard Burr, probably won’t be a huge Tea Party target.)
—————
8. Wicker
9. Kyl
10. Barrasso
(may garner a nominal Tea Party challenger, but will win comfortably.)
As a moderate Republican I’m confident both Lugar and Snowe will survive but, in case they don’t, don’t you think they would have a shot at winning as write-in candidates? I mean, both got more than 70% of the vote the last time around….
Toast:
1. Orrin Hatch. They already did the same thing to Bennett.
2. Olympia Snowe. I don’t see how she gets through a Reep caucus that has moved far to the right. She’ll have to pull a Murkowski to keep her seat.
In serious trouble:
3. Kay Bailey Hutchison. She might pull it out if the opposition splits, but her opponents will probably only have minor ideological differences among them.
4. John Ensign. Oddly enough I think he has a better chance to squeak through the primary because he’ll probably get both a tea party challenge and a mainstream challenge, making it less likely that the opposition coalesces around 1 candidate. If he steps down, there should be a competitive tea party v. mainstream primary.
In less trouble:
5. Bob Corker. Relatively moderate Republicans can still win primaries in TN. Ask Bill Haslam.
6. Richard Lugar. This is the same electorate that went with Dan Coats and Mitch Daniels, and in an open primary he’ll benefit from a big independent vote and even some Dems.
7. Scott Brown. Mass Republicans have recognized for a long time that the only way they can compete is to run moderates. I don’t see them losing their heads now.
Not in trouble:
8. Jon Kyl. They didn’t come close to McCain, who had a history of heresies and is probably less popular than Kyl among primary voters.
9. John Barrasso.
10. Roger Wicker.
They are not going to primary him. Agree on Snowe and Hatch, but I’d put Ensign in third place, then Lugar and Kyl. I’m not aware of Corker doing anything in particular to anger the right-wing base.
Lindsey Graham is lucky he’s not up for re-election in 2012. He’s a goner in a GOP primary.
The vote about earmarks:
Democrats the supported the (R) bill (* Gone baby gone):
Bayh*
Bennet
Feingold*
McCaskill
Nelson (FL)
Udall (CO)
Warner
Republicans that didn’t support it:
Bennett*
Cochran
Collins
Inhofe
Lugar
Murkowski
Shelby
Voinovich*
This was seen as a symbolic vote, that had no real chance of passing. The fact that Snowe and Brown voted for it was interesting. Hatch probably would have anyway. Kirk was a bit surprising. Also you figured Ben Nelson would have wanted some Conservative Cred like McCaskill, Bill Nelson, and Warner wanted.
I’ll deal with both their primary chances and their general election chances:
1. From what I’ve read, Snowe either has to get LePage to endorse her, win a divided primary, or run as an Independent or Democrat. I am not sure what will happen, but I don’t see her surviving as a Republican without the race turning brutally nasty in the end. I’d say she’s the favorite in a three-way race and would almost be willing to not run a Democrat to make a two-way race, but if there are four candidates–a Democrat, a Republican, Snowe as an Independent, and a Green Party or Teabagger-type–I’m not sure what would happen.
The Democrats better be ready to pounce if it looks like she’ll be vulnerable.
2. It seems likely that he’d be taken out, but I don’t think this changes anything other than giving us a far more radical Republican. If there’s any Democrat who can win the seat, that would be great, and I’ll probably give him money. But I wouldn’t hold my breath.
3. This is a real wild card, because while she’d probably be pretty hard to beat if she’s the nominee, we’d need someone who doesn’t have a huge statewide profile to have a decent shot at taking the seat, or so I think. If it’s someone like the lieutenant governor, it’s only slightly better than Hutchinson running.
And yes, call me crazy, but I think we can take the seat, if there’s enough investment in the state and it’s not a bad year for Democrats. The problem is that I don’t see the investment coming from anywhere but the Obama campaign. I hope they are seriously considering throwing some money into the state, if only for building the party.
4. If he is Teabagged, we could take the seat, but if he runs, it’s still his. I’m not sure what I want to happen, because he appears to be one of the few grown ups left in the party.
5. This is another race where it’s hard to say what will happen. I don’t think anyone has announced a challenge to Corker besides Hank Williams, Jr. (By the way, is this guy as much of a dumb ass as I think he might be? I know very little about him, but he strikes me as a more annoying version of Toby Keith.) But Williams has already supposedly consulted with Frist and Lamar Alexander, which is pretty incredible if it’s true. Corker’s not a moderate, let alone a liberal Republican. What did he do besides take financial reform seriously to have two big wigs in Tennessee politics start actively plotting against him?
Can the Democrats take this seat? I’d sure like they to try. Tennessee may not be the friendliest state for the Democrats these days, but why not run a major from one of the big cities? What’s the worst that could happen? We lose by 10 points? I don’t know if there is that deep of a bench in the state, but it doesn’t look to be like Kansas, where we are scrapping the bottom of the barrel. Plus, there just aren’t that many pick up opportunities in 2012, so why not try to make this, and Texas, one?
6. He’d probably survive a primary, if only because the Republicans aren’t stupid when it comes to this stuff.
Can he be beat? I doubt he’d go down like Santorum, but there’s absolutely no reason the Democrats shouldn’t work like crazy to take him out. This is a legitimate pick up opportunity where the battle really isn’t uphill like it might be in some other states. They could always fail to knock off Brown, but they have a home field advantage, a deep bench of candidates, and a presidential year working for them.
7. I can’t imagine he survives a primary, if only because he’s so tainted. I don’t know enough Nevada politics to know if anyone besides Angle might run as a Teabagger favorite, but unless the Republicans put up someone like Heller, I’d probably favor the Democrats here.
8. Again, what did he do to piss off the base? Or is this just a matter of the Red State crew wanting an even more conservative senator?
Is there anyone in the state Democratic party that could get more than ten percent of the white vote? The black vote already turns out strongly, so while there’s some room for improvement, there’s not that much room. Still, perhaps this is more gettable than some here think. I doubt the Republicans would take a challenge seriously, so perhaps we’d catch them napping until September, when they’d be pretty far behind. I almost want to try for this seat just to keep them on their toes.
9. I don’t know of any primary challenges he’s supposed to be facing, so it’s really more of a general election question. Even more than Texas, Arizona is begging to be turned blue, so unless it’s a bad year for the Democrats, outside investment in the state combined with a good candidate could give us a good shot at taking the seat.
Who could take him on? Harry Mitchell? Ann Kirkpatrick? I don’t know who else might be competitive. PPP had him up 52-39 over Giffords in a somewhat recent poll, but does she have statewide name recognition?
10. Why wouldn’t he survive a primary? And who else might take him on besides Dave Freudenthal?
Certain to be challenged and probably lose.
1) Kay Bailey Hutchison – She stepped on far too many toes in a very unsuccessful primary challenge to Rick Perry. She drew blood first and after challenging a sitting governor the establishment won’t just not come to her defense but may end up with their own piece of flesh.
2) Orrin Hatch – Too many deals with folks like Ted Kennedy coming back to bite him. His only hope is if he can somehow change party rules and establish a primary. He could try tacking right but how far is there to go? Advocating secession and the stablishment of a Deseret Republic?
Gov. Gary Herbert himself could also use a process change and an open primary since he’s also a moderate by Utah Republican standards.
3) John Ensign – The walking wounded. However before we dismiss him let’s look at David Vitter. Vitter tacked hard right and snuggled up hard to the teabaggers. And got lucky to run in the right year. But Ensign’s baggage is far more formidable. And everyone smells blood.
Will get a challenged but probably win.
1) Richard Lugar – He’s an adult in the hyperkinetic zoo of Fox Nation. But he’s also a very beloved figure in Indiana who has been around forever. And he isn’t exactly weak on any conservative issues except talking in even and measured tones.
He’ll have just about the entire party for him. But he also may get a top tiered challenger.
2) Olympia Snowe – Unpopular with Republicans but popular with the rest of state. Sounds familiar. But unlike Castle she is an incumbent Senator. And the Republican Party in Maine is far healthier than that in Deleware where the atrophied electorate played no small part in Castle’s defeat.
However Maine like Deleware is a closed primary. But interest in the Republican Party among moderates may increase due to the wide open Republican contest for President which could pay dividends for her.
One other connection to Delaware however. What do Delaware and Alaska have in common? Small populations and cheap media markets. Which make it far easier for a challenger to pick up steam.
The rest
1) Corker – Tennessee is trending Republican and conservative but has a history of electing a more genteel class of politicians. As long as he covers his right flank properly I don’t see him getting a serious challenger.
2) Wicker – Even if the establishment takes on the trappings of populism the establishment tends to rule there. Of course this is Mississippi so given the conservatism anything is possible. But this is the state that coronates the very patrician Thad Cochran every six years.
3) Scott Brown – The Massachusetts Republican Party is not crazy. After being in the wilderness they aren’t going to mess with a good thing. The last time they went hard right was in 1984 when Ray Shamie beat Elliot Richardson costing the Republicans a very winnable Senate seat.
4) Kyl – If McCain after sticking a needle in the eye of the Republicans repeatedly survived there is no way the more conventionally conservative Kyl goes down.
5) Barrasso – It is Wyoming with it’s low population and cheap media markets so anything is possible. He hasn’t really done much to offend. He used to be pro-choice but changed his position to pro-life. He could be scalp that one could go after. But there isn’t much of a reason besides just getting a scalp.
I distinctly remember people saying the same thing about Mike Castle. What people don’t understand is that all of the moderates left the GOP in 2008 to have a say in the democratic primaries. This has left the republican party a smaller and more conservative. Christine O’Donnell would have never beat Castle in ANYTHING other than a GOP primary after 2008. Not in in 1980, not in 2000, not in ANY OTHER YEAR. I was pretty confident that O’Donnell was going to win late in the race, because she had momentum, and was a tea party darling. I can GUARANTEE YOU that the same thing has happened to to MA GOP and the ME GOP. It is smaller, and more conservative. How can some right wing loser win in a supposedly moderate ME GOP gubernatorial primary last year? No republican is safe, at all. Not even Luger.
They are all going to be challenged, I guarantee it.
I think there’s a little bit of overestimating the effectiveness of tea party challenges in 2012 based on what happened in 2010. All of the above people likely will get some form of tea party challenges. But, the economy is likely to be better in 2012, and that’s going to help incumbents of all stripes. Also, if you look at the effective tea party challenges against incumbents, there were two: Joe Miller in Alaska, who was able to defeat Lisa Murkowski on the basis of Palin’s endorsement and there was an antiabortion measure on the ballot; and Christine O’Donnell, who won because of the perfect storm that was Mike Castle (i.e. moderate establishment Republican, angry South Delaware voters). And keep in mind that both Erik Erickson (the high priest of tea baggers) and the Tea Party people who actually dole out the funds are very conscious about what happened in both elections, despite their bluster. To mount an effective challenge, you need money, and it might not come as easy to crazy challengers as it did in 2010.
For example, take Olympia Snowe. It’s true that the last PPP poll showed her not all that popular with Republican voters, but she’ll likely have the strong endorsement of Paul LePage (who she went all out for in the last campaign – and keep in mind Castle had no such person in Delawara), she’ll have money, and people will be aware she’s a viable candidate as opposed to some random Christine O’Donnell type. That may not be enough, but I wouldn’t count her out, especially if anger abates in the next couple of years. Erikson has already discourage people from focusing on her.
From my perspective, the two most vulnerable are Hatch (who I think is probably a goner because of Utah’s convention system), and (surprisingly) Corker, who doesn’t have the institutional support Lugar has built up and has only been in office one term in a state where Republicans will win the Senate race no matter who is the nominee. Erikson has already set his sites on him.
… they could all face a stiff challenge.
Coats would have lost to Stutzman if the primary had been one week later. No comfort in that.
The question on these is, WHO runs against them.
If ONE credible teabagger runs, then they could definitely pull an upset against a Lugar or a Corker or a Ensign. Potentiaally the same can be said for Kyl. McCain didn’t trounce Hayworth despite Hayworth’s considerable baggage.
Hatch is D.O.A. and Snowe can’t win as a GOPer. Hutchison is toast is she runs.
Brown is probably safe in the primary, but if he keeps the peace in the GOP, he may make himself more vulnerable in the general.
There is a very good chance that at least 5 of these senators will not be back, or at least not under the GOP label.
1) Hatch
2) Snowe
3) Hutchison
4) Ensign
5) tie Lugar
5) tie Corker
7) Kyl
8) Brown
9) Wicker
10) Barrasso
Since the consensus here is that Snowe stands a good chance of being ousted by her party – anyone know which Democrats are weighing bids for that seat in 2012?
The liberal version of teabagging? Haltering? Sestaking? Lamonting?
I can see some crackpot taking a shot at Dianne Feinstein. And, of course, Lieberman.
which we (kind of) are in this thread, Sue Lowden tells a reporter,
I actually think most will survive and not even face big challenges. There will be too many Dem seats to target; I think it’s more likely that you will have GOP primary races there – with Tea Party candidates against establishment GOPer for the right to take on some of the big Dem targets.
1. I don’t expect KBH to run again; if she does, she will lose the primary.
2. I don’t expect Ensign will run again; if he does, he will lose in the primary – probably not to a Tea Party candidate, though.
3. Hatch is well aware of his risk and will make damn sure he has enough supporters in place at the convention to hold on to the nomination. He is MUCH better at this game than Bennett – I expect him to win.
4. I expect Snowe will be challenged, but my gut feeling is that the challenge fizzles.
5. I don’t see Brown being challenged at all.
6. I wouldn’t be shocked if someone challenged Corker, but don’t think it’s likely to be a serious one.
7. Lugar? He’ll draw a challenger, but will fight him off with indy and Dem votes if needed.
The rest I don’t see any real threat to. This year gave all of these guys a big head’s up. They have two years to position themselves and I expect they’ll do well at it. I look more for fights in places like Ohio, Nebraska, Florida and Pennsylvania.
except for Barrasso and maybe Wicker. And they will start much much earlier this year.
Corker could have a very tough time with him acting so god damn Senatorial and being in such a tea-bagger heavy state like Tennessee. I could see him going down in the biggest defeat.
1. Orrin Hatch- Top-tier challenger waiting in the wings with Jason Cahffetz, plus its a convention, with no option to fight it out in a primary unless he holds Chaffetz under 60%
2. KBH- After Hatch, she has the strongest potential challengers, plus TX, unlike Maine, has run-offs.
3. Snowe- An endorsement from LePage, her moving to the right, and the possibility of a fractured field make me more confident about her. Plus, she has a ton of money for ME, and, like McCain, see’s her challenge coming and is ready for heavy oppo research and to strangle her opponent’s campaign in the crib.
4. Lugar- Same as Snowe, he sees it coming and has a ton of money in the bank to nuke his opponent. His refusal to move right will hurt, but may end up being smart by attracting more opponents, dividing the field. Plus, open primaries.
5. Corker- No idea why, but teabaggers are pissed at him. However, moderate Bill Haslam’s strength in the gov primary have to give him hope.
6. Wicker- There is no obvious challenger here, and he has reversed his position on earmarks.
7. Barrasso- If Lummis wants to move up before 2014, she could primary him. I don’t see him being seriously challenged though.
8. Brown- Popular even with teabaggers.
9. Kyl- Only Republican in Senate leadership teabaggers somewhat like.
10. Ensign- He’s one of the more likely people on this list to lose, but if he does, its not because he isn’t conservative enough.
Republicans set about putting as many seats in play as they could in early 2009 when it still looked like the most likely outcome was Democrats gaining seats in the chamber. They ended up winning seats in MA, IL, PA and WI where Obama had just won by double digits. They likely would have won in DE too if their star recruit hadn’t been teabagged and different nominees may have changed the outcome in NV and CO. In all those states Obama’s winning margin was at least nine points. Nobody knows what the national environment will be like in two years time and with the disparity in the number of seats up there is even more need for Dems to find some offense. Chris Coons had the balls to try and was ultimately rewarded. John Sharp in Texas is probably as good as it gets. The other one that stands out to me is TN. I think Corker is more vulnerable than CW suggests.