Tag: MS-Sen

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/24-27, Mississippi voters, no trendlines)

Johnny DuPree (D): 25

Phil Bryant (R): 56

Undecided: 19

Bill Luckett (D): 27

Phil Bryant (R): 53

Undecided: 20

Johnny DuPree (D): 28

Dave Dennis (R): 41

Undecided: 31

Bill Luckett (D): 25

Dave Dennis (R): 43

Undecided: 32

Johnny DuPree (D): 28

Hudson Holliday (R): 37

Undecided: 35

Bill Luckett (D): 28

Hudson Holliday (R): 38

Undecided: 34

(MoE: ±3.4%)

The 2011 gubernatorial race doesn’t look to be much of a challenge for the Republicans to hold; neither Dem nominee, either Hattiesburg mayor Johnny Dupree or businessman and Morgan Freeman chum Bill Luckett, comes anywhere close. (If you’re wondering why they didn’t poll anyone stronger, nobody else is coming; the field is already closed.) The Republican primary — between Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant, whom I expect is the favorite based on being the only of the five candidates with name rec over 50% or positive favorables (32/27), businessman Dave Dennis, and retired general and county commissioner Hudson Holliday — is where the real action will be, but it doesn’t seem like PPP polled the primaries.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/24-27, Mississippi voters, no trendlines)

Travis Childers (D): 33

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 51

Undecided: 15

Jim Hood (D): 36

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 50

Undecided: 14

Mike Moore (D): 38

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 14

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 35

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 52

Undecided: 13

Gene Taylor (D): 36

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±3.4%)

With no Dem challenger on the horizon for Roger Wicker (who beat ex-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in 2008, after previously being appointed by Haley Barbour to succeed Trent Lott), PPP throws the entire Dem bench up at the low-profile Wicker and finds that nothing really sticks, as he has a pretty strong 51/23 approval, including 33/29 among Dems. If anything, it gives a relative sense of what Dems are best liked here… it’s probably ex-AG Mike Moore, who polls within 10 and has 39/23 favorables.

Here’s something fun. There are ten Republican senators up for re-election in 2012, so my question to you is, who among that group is most likely to get teabagged to death? There are of course a lot of factors which go into this question, but at the end of the day, all we’re asking is which GOP incumbents are most likely to get derailed on their way to seeking their party’s (re-)nomination?

I’ve taken a stab at ranking this gruesome tensome, in order of likelihood of getting consumed by the tea-flavored beast:

1. Olympia Snowe
2. Orrin Hatch
3. Kay Bailey Hutchison
4. Richard Lugar
5. Bob Corker
6. Scott Brown
7. John Ensign
8. Roger Wicker
9. Jon Kyl
10. John Barrasso

Ensign deserves an asterisk. While he’s probably vulnerable in a primary, I don’t really see such a race turning into a teabagger-fueled challenge. So on an ordinary list, he’d rate much higher, but here, he’s toward the bottom of the pack.

What do you say? How would you rank this list? I see a lot of juicy targets for the Sharron Angle/Christine O’Donnell brigade!

I am not sure if this is a sign that Roger Wicker is in trouble, or he is just a little worried.  This story is classic.  

First, Wicker put up radio ads trying to turn black votes off of Ronnie Musgrove, now the GOP is sending out fake ballots insinuating that Wicker is running on the same ticket as Barack Obama and Bennie Thompson!  Check it out.

I still think Musgrove has a shot if he can up his white support, and Mississippi enjoys unprecedented black turnout.  I am going to be following this one closely tomorrow.

http://marcambinder.theatlanti…

This is it.  It’s time for my final look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don’t do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  And with the election tomorrow, tiers no longer matter, so I’ll simply rank the competitive races where party control of the seat may switch.  All others are deemed safe seats, which now include all of the Tier II and III seats from last time.

See my previous mid-October diary to see what things have changed since my last update.  Previous rankings are in parentheses.

Tier I

1. Virginia (1): Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising.  Former unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) hasn’t even gotten above 35% in any poll taken since early September, and Warner cannot get below 55%.  Only God or the Devil can stop this one now, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico (2): Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R).  Since October, Udall’s re-opened his massive lead after getting hit by attacks from conservative independent groups.  Pearce has not gotten above 42% since early September, while Udall has been consistently over the 50% mark at the same time.  The NRSC has basically conceded defeat in this race.

3. Colorado (3): Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  He’s facing off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  All the late October polling shows Udall ahead by double digits.  The NRSC finally pulled out of Colorado last week after doing a head fake.

4. New Hampshire (4): Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002, is back for a rematch.  She has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken in 2008, and without some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day to help Sununu out this time around, Shaheen looks to be in good shape.  Though Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage, it hasn’t helped him.

5. Alaska (8): Conviction!  84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) was convicted on all 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp. last Monday.  Anchorage mayor Mark Begich (D), who had been in a very close race with Stevens, has now opened up a decent lead in the polls, turning what seemed to be a nailbiter into a more comfortable lead.  Something about voting for a convicted felon, I guess.  Still, Rasmussen’s poll has it as a single-digit race, so don’t count out Alaska’s unique brand of crazy just yet.

6. North Carolina (5): The polls have shown a complete reversal of fortune starting in August.  Kay Hagan (D) has been climbing steadily in the polls, while incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) has been steadily falling.  So what do you do if you’re Dole?  Run an incredibly horrible attack ad calling your opponent, a Sunday school teacher, “godless”.  That’s the sign of a desperate and losing campaign, as four different polls taken in late October now show Hagan at or above the 50% mark.

7. Oregon (6): Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) is challenging incumbent Gordon Smith (R), and has been steadily gaining ground in the polls over the past month.  Every non-partisan poll taken in late October showed Merkley with some kind of lead.  Still, none of them showed him at 50% or above, so this one’s not a done deal yet.

8. Minnesota (7): Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The recent polling now shows a pure tossup, with some polls showing Franken in teh lead, and some polls showing Coleman leading.  But late-breaking news has a new lawsuit filed against Coleman alledging $75,000 being funneled to Coleman’s wife from a big GOP donor.

9. Georgia (9): Former state representative Jim Martin (D) is going up against Saxby Chambliss (R), who ousted Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face, earning him the nickname “Shameless Saxby”.  Starting with the economic collapse, poll after poll showed a completely different race, with Martin only behind by a statistically insignificant margin.  However, they all still show Martin trailing.  Now, Georgia has a rule that the winner must get over 50% of the vote, and the Libertarian candidate may take enough away that nobody can get 50%, in which case it will go to a runoff in December.

10. Kentucky (10): Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is now a top target of the Democrats.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) can afford to self-fund, and he’ll need to, with McConnell’s HUGE warchest of over $9 million.  In just the last month, the polls suddenly showed Lunsford gaining significant ground on McConnell, but the latest two polls show McConnell gaining ground again, getting over the 50% mark.

11. Mississippi-B (11): Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01.  Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) has kept it close in the polls until recently.  As with Kentucky, the latest two polls now show Wicker above 50%.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

South Dakota (Tim Johnson)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Idaho (Jim Risch)

Kansas (Pat Roberts)

Maine (Susan Collins)

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

Nebraska (Mike Johanns)

Oklahoma (James Inhofe)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)

Texas (John Cornyn)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my final rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand with less than 24 hours to go.  We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

Markos has the Daily Kos polling firehose open at full blast. Here’s a quick roundup of this final set of R2K polls:

KY-Sen:

Lunsford (D): 44 (42)

McConnell (R-inc): 47 (46)

MN-Sen:

Franken (D): 40 (41)

Coleman (R-inc): 43 (39)

Barkley (I): 15 (18)

MS-Sen:

Musgrove (D): 44 (46)

Wicker (R-inc): 51 (47)

OR-Sen:

Merkley (D): 48 (47)

Smith (R-inc): 42 (41)

Bonus MN-Sen poll: An MPR/UMN poll (PDF) shows Franken leading 41-37-17. At the start of October, it was 36F-38C-14B.

This one is too good.  Roger Wicker is now up with radio ads featuring black voters who say they will vote for Obama and Wicker.  Here’s a partial transcript:

“I’m supporting Barack Obama for president and Roger Wicker for US Senate,” an African-American woman says in the ad. “In the debate. [Musgrove] wouldn’t even say Barack Obama’s name. He’s disrespecting us and taking our vote for granted,” she says.

Another African American says of Wicker: “He represents us and he doesn’t take our vote for granted. He’s asking for our vote. Ronnie Musgrove refuses to say he supports Barack Obama.

This is astonishing, and it says a great deal about the state of the race, at least in the Wicker campaign’s eyes.  Wicker sees the same numbers we do.  The latest R2K poll had Musgrove winning a quarter of the white vote, and on pace to win 94 percent of the black vote if undecideds break like decided voters.  He knows he can’t win if that happens, especially with high black turnout.

With Musgrove garnering 23-to-26 percent of the white vote all year (at least according to R2K), maybe Wicker figured that chipping away five percent of the black vote was more doable considering Musgrove’s white base has held.  So, he is trying to anger black voters by arguing that Musgrove has distanced himself from Obama (even though Musgrove has said he will vote for Obama, and Wicker has bashed him!).

Still, it’s amazing that in Mississippi the GOP candidate is trying to latch onto Obama.  Wicker knows that if R2K’s numbers (and assuredly others) are right, Musgrove is currently poised to win.  

What do you guys think?  Bold move by Wicker and likely to win him more black support, or pure desperation that African American voters will see through?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

With the election less than 3 weeks away from us, it’s time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don’t do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  So, I’ll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain’t guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous September diary to see what things have changed since my last update.  Previous rankings are in parentheses.

Note: The RNC looks to be getting into the Senate races to prop up some of their candidates and keep Democrats from getting to 60 Senate seats.  If they decide to end up dropping a moneybomb into a particular race, then that can quickly change the dynamics I’ve written up below.

Tier I

1. Virginia (1): Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising.  Former unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) hasn’t even gotten above 35% in any poll taken since early September, and Warner cannot get below 55%.  Move along.  Nothing to see here.  This is about as lopsided as you’re gonna get, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico (2): Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R).  Outside groups like the Club for Growth had been pouring money into this state attacking Udall, and the polling had shown the race getting a bit closer.  But more recently, Udall’s re-opened his massive lead.  Pearce has not gotten above 41% since early September, while Udall has been consistently over the 50% mark at the same time.  The NRSC cancelled their TV advertising in this state last month, leaving Pearce and the 527s to fend for themselves.  Udall also still has a massive cash on hand advantage over Pearce.

3. Colorado (4): Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  He’ll face off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors.  Schaffer has been known for his close ties to Jack Abramoff and human rights abuses on the Marianas Islands.  Right-wing groups had been attacking Udall with ridiculously false ads, which hurt his numbers, but recently the polls are showing Udall slowly but surely increasing his lead over Schaffer.  This has caused Schaffer’s campaign manager to start attacking the pollsters when their numbers are unfavorable to Schaffer.  That’s not a sign of a winning campaign.  To make things worse for Schaffer, those right-wing groups like Freedom’s Watch have now pulled out of the Colorado Senate race.

4. New Hampshire (3): Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002 along with some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken in 2008.  General rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble.  Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.  But he won’t go down easily, and the polls are starting to tighten a bit.  Sununu also still has a significant cash on hand advantage.  That money will probably make this race closer, but given how much New Hampshire has changed, I’m not sure how much that money advantage will help Sununu.

5. North Carolina (5): Amazing.  The polls are showing a complete reversal of fortune starting in August.  Kay Hagan (D) has been climbing steadily in the polls, while incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) has been steadily falling.  This, as Obama’s numbers similarly are growing in North Carolina.  The DSCC’s ads against Dole have been quite effective in framing a theme of ineffectiveness about Dole.  You even have Republican insiders say Dole is “virtually certain” to lose.  This has caused Dole to throw the kitchen sink in negative attack ads against Hagan.  Interesting fact, Hagan is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, the longtime Senator and Governor of Florida, who came from behind to win re-election to the governorship in 1994 by defeating Jeb Bush.

6. Oregon (7): Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) is challenging incumbent Gordon Smith (R).  Smith seems worried, as his commercials have him embracing Barack Obama and John Kerry and Ted Kennedy and Ron Wyden (Oregon’s Democratic Senator) and fighting Bush!  Then, he turned from trying to prop up his own record to smearing Merkley with a misleading ad implying that Merkley is pro-rapist.  Stay classy, Gordon.  (It of course misrepresents what actually happened, and when it was introduced as a stand-alone bill, Merkley of course voted for the tougher penalties.)  Smith trying to tie himself to Democratic politicians has gotten so ridiculous that the DSCC has stepped in with a TV ad mocking Smith for doing so, and showing his real record.  This is probably because the polls now show Merkley pulling into a nice lead over Smith.  In an interesting twist, Smith is actually a cousin of the two Udalls running for Senate.

7. Minnesota (8): Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The recent polling has been friendlier to Al, with every poll taken in October now showing Al Franken in the lead, as Coleman’s own numbers keep falling.  Much of the fall seems to come from the impact of Independence Party (not to be confused with Alaska’s secessionist version) candidate Dean Barkley (who was appointed to the Senate when Wellstone died), who is pulling in a significant chunk of the vote.  And while Franken’s numbers have also fallen with some of his support going to Barkley, it seems that Coleman is losing even more support.  There’s also yet another story about Coleman getting lots of free stuff from yet another big GOP donor, which led to a bizarre press conference with Coleman’s aide repeateding the same rote denial sentence for three minutes straight.  In what seems like a McCain-like campaign stunt, Coleman has also just suspended all negative ads coming from his campaign, and is urging Franken to do the same.  Of course, the NRSC isn’t stopping its negative ads against Franken.

8. Alaska (6): 84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) is seeking a sixth term, but he has been indicted on 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp.  Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich entered the race.  His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972.  Now while the polls had already shown Begich leading Stevens before the indictment, Stevens was still able to easily win his primary at the end of August, and combined with McCain’s Sarah Palin pick, the polls have suddenly gotten much friendlier to Stevens, and I don’t think it was from his primary win over some no-name challengers.  And to complicate matters, the federal prosecutor was somehow so incompetent that key pieces of evidence against Stevens were thrown out, greatly increasing Stevens’ chances of getting off scot free.  Non-partisan polling now shows Begich only up by 2 or 3 points, with Rasmussen actually showing Stevens having regained a slim lead.  Still, the incumbent Stevens is under the 50% mark.

9. Georgia (NR): Former state representative Jim Martin, the 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee, thankfully won the Democratic primary over DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones (see previous update as to why Jones would’ve been a horrible candidate).  Starting with the economic collapse, poll after poll showed a completely different race, with Martin only behind by a statistically insignificant margin.  Early voting and African-American turnout may make a difference in this race, as well as the presence of the Libertarian Senate candidate, given that Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr is from Georgia, and will likely shave off some points from Chambliss’s right flank.  Martin, however, does not have much cash on hand.  Good news is the DSCC is going to be helping him out with TV ads against Chambliss.  Remember, Chambliss ousted Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face, earning him the nickname “Shameless Saxby”.

10. Kentucky (11): Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is now a top target of the Democrats.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) can afford to self-fund, and he’ll need to, with McConnell’s HUGE warchest of over $9 million.  In just the last month, the polls have suddenly shown Lunsford gaining significant ground on McConnell.  The DSCC has responded by coming in to Lunsford’s aid also.

11. Mississippi-B (9): Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01.  That’s the seat that Travis Childers (D) won in May.  That has to be a shot in the arm for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D), though Wicker has shown himself to be a prolific fundraiser.  The latest polls still show this to be a pretty tight race, with Wicker slightly up but still under the 50% mark.  It may all come down to the African-American turnout in this state.  The 2004 exit polls showed they made up 34% of the electorate.  So if black turnout increases, that should benefit Musgrove.  And because this is technically a special election (to fill out the remainder of Lott’s term), there will be no party identification on the ballot in November.  That can actually work to our benefit in a state like Mississippi.  The GOP is worried about this race, as Governor Haley Barbour (R) tried to bury the race at the bottom of the ballot, even after the local county district races.  The problem is that Mississippi election law clearly states that races for national office are supposed to be at the top of the list.  This went all the way to the Mississippi Supreme Court, which asked Barbour nicely to follow the law, which he actually did!

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races.  These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Susan Collins (R).  But he just hasn’t seemed to be able to gain much traction.  Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials.  The most recent polls still have Collins at about a double-digit lead over Allen.

Texas: Netroots Democrats got the challenger they wanted to face John Cornyn (R).  State rep. and Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Rick Noriega (D) served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina.  The few polls on this race (Rasmussen seems to be the only one polling it) show Cornyn slipping a little bit recently, though he’s still at the 50% mark.  The big problem for Noriega is still fundraising for a huge state like Texas, though an appearance from Bill Clinton should help.

Tier III

Idaho: With Larry Craig (R) retiring after his airport bathroom… ah… incident, it’s looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin.  The latest polls are not kind to LaRocco.  At this point, wild card independent rancher Rex Rammell won’t be anywhere near enough to help out LaRocco.

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) is up against former Congressman Jim Slattery.  There had been high hopes for Slattery, but the polls have not been kind to him.  This is about to fall into safe territory, even with Slattery’s innovative new ad.

Louisiana (10): Mary Landrieu (D) was considered the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008.  But the NRSC just pulled out of this race, leaving turncoat John Neely Kennedy (R, no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to fend for himself.  The sparse polling shows Landrieu still holding a sizable lead.  The Republican tilt of the state is the only thing keeping this race from falling even further into safe territory.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, former governor Mike Johanns (R) quit his job as Bush’s Agriculture Secretary to run for this seat.  The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring.  While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote.  That’s had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race.  Of course, that didn’t take into account how he’d be running against the former governor.  The last two Rasmussen polls show Kleeb has gained ground, but that means he’s only down by 14 points instead of being down by over 25 points.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) is being challenged by state senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks.  They could not be farther apart when it comes to energy and environmental issues.  The latest polls show Rice has improved his numbers a bit.  Still, losing by 13 points instead of losing by over 20 points is still a loss, even if Rice almost matched Inhofe in Q3 fundraising.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

South Dakota (Tim Johnson)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand with less than 20 days to go.  These are my picks, and I’m sticking with them… until my next update, at least.

Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it’s so obviously a top tier race, why I’m being too optimistic in some seat, etc.  Have at it.  🙂

The goal has been to get to 60 seats in the senate. Let’s assume that Lieberman still caucuses with the Dems, so that means we need 9 seats.

We’ve currently got 8 seats where we’re either tied or ahead: VA, NM, CO, NH, AK, MN, OR and NC. Its far from a sure thing that we’ll win all of these, but all are legitimate targets and I like our trendlines in all of them.

But that’s only 59, so we have to look beyond them to get to 60. There are a number of races that I think we got a shot to get that 60th.  

Three races that I’m giving up on are Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Kentucky. I know Rice and Kleeb are very popular around these parts. I still think Andrew Rice is a terrific candidate, but I always thought the only way Rice had a shot was a Macaca-type gaffe by Inhofe and he hasn’t done it. Kleeb is also a terrific candidate and he’s saying that once he gets his name ID up, his numbers will improve. My question is what is he waiting for, the election is in 6 weeks. I never thought Lunsford really had a shot, even when polls showed him ahead. I always thought this race was more about keeping McConnell occuppied and make him use his considerable warchest on himself

Here are the 3 races that I think could be #60

1. Georgia: Survey USA and Rasmussen show wildly different results of this race. Me being the cynic that I am tend to believe SUSA, but if Ras’ numbers are closer to reality, this is still a race.

2. Maine: I know a lot of people are throwing in the towel on Allen, but I’m not. I know he trails by 13, although I think that poll may have oversampled Republicans as evidenced by Obama’s scant 4 pt. lead. But Maine is the bluest state we’re contesting this cycle and I think a well done ad by Obama and the DSCC’s money-bomb we could see this race turn dramatically quite quickly.

3. Mississippi: This is the closest of the three, but I ahve to admit I’m most bullish about this one. Wicker has been slowly but surely moving up, and unlike Goergia or Maine I don’t really know how they stop Wicker’s momentum.

One of the primary ways to Expand the Map of competitive U.S. Senate seats in 2008 is to empower with resources Democrats in states that Republicans hope to take for granted, so that they can focus on more traditionally battleground states.  Four such red states in 2008 are Mississippi, Kansas, Georgia, and Tennessee, where former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, former Congressman Jim Slattery, former state legislator Jim Martin, and former Tennessee Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke are running to oust ethically questionable Roger Wicker, Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts, Shameless Saxby Chambliss, and Lamar!, respectively.

You can blow the Senate Guru‘s mind by helping meet the below goals in the week ahead by contributing to these red state Democrats via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page:

Red state Democrat	Currently At	Goal Amount	Distance to Goal
Bob Tuke	$40	$100	$60 to go
Jim Slattery	$350	$500	$150 to go
Ronnie Musgrove	$413	$500	$87 to go
Jim Martin	$760	$1,000	$240 to go

$100 makes a huge difference.  $10 makes a huge difference.  We’re now less than two months from Election Day.  Supporting these red state Democrats at this critical juncture expands the map, makes the NRSC sweat even more, and increases Democrats’ chances for overcoming historic Republican obstructionism in the U.S. Senate.  Let’s keep that momentum going!

I posted this on daily kos last night. Please read it and let me know what you think.

Unfortunately, my home state of Louisiana is one of the few states that will probably shift ideologically towards the GOP this election cycle. I apologize to the other 49 states (even Utah). If I were Obama, I’d focus on GA or NC or MS.

But the idea that Sen. Mary Landrieu is vulnerable this cycle is untrue. Yes, she was first elected then reelected by the slimest of razor thin margins in ’96 and ’02, but she actually faced opponents then. John N. Kennedy, her “Republican” opponent is a joke. This is evidenced by the fact that he switched from DEM to GOP in an overwhelmingly DEM year. One may argue that Hurricane Katrina hurt her chances, but most African-American refugees moved either to Baton Rouge or Lafayette. (On a side note many who moved out of state to Houston were from St. Bernard Parish, a republican-dominated suburb.)

Also, most people don’t blame her for the government’s response. Indeed, she is seen as one, perhaps the only one, who gave her all to see Louisiana renewed. Most Louisianians, myself included, blame both Bush and then-Gov. Blanco. Quite a few blame Vitter for not having any gall to stand up to Bush. But few blame Mary.

And, last but not least, she has millions more than Kennedy to spend on this campaign. Even if the NRSC pumps $ into this race (i hope they do) it’ll be a waste. Don’t worry, Mary will win a 3rd term much more solidly than her first 2.

Part two: why Erik Fleming is a viable candidate in MS-A.

In 2006, Erik managed more than a third of the vote. I know what you’re thinking…he got beat 2:1 in a democratic year and he’s a viable candidate? But hear me out.

First, Sen. Obama’s coattails will greatly benefit Democrats in Mississippi. GOTV was not nearly as well organised in 2006 as it is now. Black voter registration drives will meet their goal of registering 100,000 new voters this cycle.

Second, Ronnie Musgrove’s coattails will help. The DSCC will be dumping $$$ into this state for Musrove, so why can’t they drop 50k for Fleming? He could do a lot with that money. Oh, and all this talk about Musgrove’s party ID not being on the special election ballot giving him an advantage is sillyness, as everyone in MS remembers his governorship. Everyone knows he’s a Democrat. (And, barring a macaca gaffe on his part, he will probably beat Sen. Wicker.) Studies show that people willing to vote for one party in a federal race are more willing to support that same party in other federal races. This only showed effect on down ballot, not the presidential level. Won’t help Obama much, but it could help Fleming.

Third, Fleming was totally unknown in 2006. His grass roots campaign was not enough, sadly. He was drastically outspent because he raised very little money (less than $45,000 for the whole cycle). Unfortunately, his pitiful fundraising abilities look to repeat this cycle unless you help him out.  But now he has gotten through one statewide race. He’ll win his second if we help him enough.

Fourth, Trent Lott, Fleming’s 06 opponent, was much more powerful in DC and much more popular in MS than Thad Cochrane. He was a tougher opponent. And Erik walked away with more than a third of the vote, a % that will only increase as GOTV efforts strengthen in the South. Cochrane gonna have to go sometime, why not now?

Fifth, he is a liberal. I know! A liberal in mississippi! Finally. He has relatively liberal social views, wants withdrawl from Iraq, and is against drilling in ANWR. See his website for all his views.

But, and this is the good bit, he is not seen as ‘tax and spend librul’ like Vivian Figures is in AL. He can paint himself as a moderate to conservative like Musgrove. Low name recognition is a good thing sometimes 🙂

So, please, if you were planning to give a few dollars to Landrieu to ensure her reelection, don’t. Instead, Donate to Erik Fleming!

And, most importantly of all, think positive.

Yes, MS-A is the longest of longshots, but we didn’t take Congress in aught six by thinking about what we couldn’t win. It’s called a 50 state strategy for a reason. Never say never.

Almost forgot, we have to get rid of Dollar Bill Jefferson in NOLA. Support Helena Moreno for LA-02!