Author: Andy Dufresne

I am not sure if this is a sign that Roger Wicker is in trouble, or he is just a little worried.  This story is classic.  

First, Wicker put up radio ads trying to turn black votes off of Ronnie Musgrove, now the GOP is sending out fake ballots insinuating that Wicker is running on the same ticket as Barack Obama and Bennie Thompson!  Check it out.

I still think Musgrove has a shot if he can up his white support, and Mississippi enjoys unprecedented black turnout.  I am going to be following this one closely tomorrow.

http://marcambinder.theatlanti…

A thought occurred to me earlier that I wanted to share to get peoples’ views.  Alaska’s polls close at 8 pm Alaska time, or 12 am on the East Coast (with the exception of the Aleutian Islands, which close at 1 am EST).  If the presidential election looks like it is over early, say 9 pm EST, it will only be 5 pm in Alaska, three hours before just about all of the Last Frontier’s polls shut.  Would this lead to many Democrats staying home, thereby saving Ted Stevens’ and Don Young’s butts?

Now, the networks will not be able to call the race until at least 11 pm EST.  Why?  Because California’s polls close at that time (8 pm on the West Coast), and Obama almost certainly cannot get to 270 before California’s 55 electoral votes are awarded to him.  So, while it may be clear that Obama has won the whole thing — if say, he captures Virginia and North Carolina, which close at 7 pm and 7:30 pm EST — the networks not be able to actually declare the winner until he is at the 270 electoral vote plateau.  Still, if it is clear that Obama has won, this could impact voters still heading to the polls in far away Alaska.  (A big part will be how the network anchors and analysts are portraying the results, and if they will be presuming Obama is the winner before California comes in. My guess is that to be on the safe side, they will temper their official language until they are sure.)

I think the situation is unlikely also because many voters will be clamoring to get to the polls, but it is possible that the election will no longer be any doubt by 8 pm Alaska time. Indeed, unless we are all still waiting at midnight here on the East Coast, Alaskans will still be heading to the polls after the race has been called.  Severely depressed resulting Democratic turnout may be the last saving grace that Ted and Don are praying for.

I posted this on my own blog, but I wanted the expert views of fellow SSPers.  What are peoples’ thoughts? Am I missing anything?

http://trumantolong.blogspot.c…

Mason-Dixon is now out with a poll showing Al Franken down 42-36.  Is this another GOP-leaning M-D poll, or is Al really tanking?  M-D does seem to suggest that Dean Barkley is hurting Franken a lot more than Coleman.  I am definitely beginning to worry about this one.

From Political Wire:

Though Sen. Barack Obama holds a decent lead in Minnesota’s presidential race, his party’s U.S. Senate candidate is lagging behind.

A new NBC News/Mason-Dixon survey finds Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) leading challenger Al Franken (D) by six points, 42% to 36%, with 12% favoring Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley.

Analysis: “If Coleman puts daylight between Franken’s numbers and his own on Election Day, he may have Barkley to thank.  While he has shored up 89% of voters who identify as Republicans, with  only 4% defecting to Barkley’s camp, only about three out of four Democrats say that they support their party nominee, with 17% of Democratic voters favoring the Independence Party candidate over Franken.”

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com…

This one is too good.  Roger Wicker is now up with radio ads featuring black voters who say they will vote for Obama and Wicker.  Here’s a partial transcript:

“I’m supporting Barack Obama for president and Roger Wicker for US Senate,” an African-American woman says in the ad. “In the debate. [Musgrove] wouldn’t even say Barack Obama’s name. He’s disrespecting us and taking our vote for granted,” she says.

Another African American says of Wicker: “He represents us and he doesn’t take our vote for granted. He’s asking for our vote. Ronnie Musgrove refuses to say he supports Barack Obama.

This is astonishing, and it says a great deal about the state of the race, at least in the Wicker campaign’s eyes.  Wicker sees the same numbers we do.  The latest R2K poll had Musgrove winning a quarter of the white vote, and on pace to win 94 percent of the black vote if undecideds break like decided voters.  He knows he can’t win if that happens, especially with high black turnout.

With Musgrove garnering 23-to-26 percent of the white vote all year (at least according to R2K), maybe Wicker figured that chipping away five percent of the black vote was more doable considering Musgrove’s white base has held.  So, he is trying to anger black voters by arguing that Musgrove has distanced himself from Obama (even though Musgrove has said he will vote for Obama, and Wicker has bashed him!).

Still, it’s amazing that in Mississippi the GOP candidate is trying to latch onto Obama.  Wicker knows that if R2K’s numbers (and assuredly others) are right, Musgrove is currently poised to win.  

What do you guys think?  Bold move by Wicker and likely to win him more black support, or pure desperation that African American voters will see through?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

A new Rasmussen poll has Jim Martin down just two points, 47-45.  Just two weeks ago, Rasmussen had Chambliss ahead 50-44.  Wow.

The U.S. Senate race in Georgia has grown a whole lot closer over the past two weeks. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss leading Democratic challenger Jim Martin by just 47% to 45%.

This is the closest the race has been all year and the highest level of support for Martin, whose campaign has spent roughly half-a-million dollars on attack ads against Chambliss over the past month. Just two weeks ago, Chambliss held a six-point lead.

I wish Rasmussen had a break-down of people who had already voted, because I am convinced Martin would be winning that group by a solid amount.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

This is fascinating.  A new Mason-Dixon poll for the Casper Star-Tribune has found the exact same result as yesterday’s fresh R2K poll: Trauner 44, Lummis 43.  

A single percentage point is all that separates the Democrat from the Republican in the race for Wyoming’s lone U.S. House seat, a new Casper Star-Tribune poll shows.

Democrat Gary Trauner of Wilson leads Republican Cynthia Lummis of Cheyenne 44 percent to 43 percent, respectively, the poll shows.

…

Of those undecided voters, 75 percent are Republicans, 16 percent are Democrats and 9 percent are independents, which probably bodes well for Lummis, they said.

This new poll shows that Trauner and Lummis are basically tied.  Additionally, unlike R2K, Mason-Dixon included the libertarian candidate in the poll, with him registering four percent.

Like R2K, M-D found that most of the undecided voters are Republicans.  This will certainly make Trauner’s mission a hard one.  Still, that so many GOPers in Wyoming are conflicted in just this race gives Trauner a shot to pull this out.  Additionally, the strong showing by the libertarian is helpful for Gary.

Gary Trauner is in this.  As the article notes, in the M-D poll at this time in 2006, Trauner was seven points behind Barbara Cubin.  Today, he is one point up, and working hard to close the deal with many staunch Republicans.  He might just do it.  

http://www.trib.com/articles/2…

The race in FL-08 between Rep. Ric Keller and Democrat Alan Grayson is getting really nasty.  Today’s Orlando Sentinel has an article about a mailer Grayson is sending out highlighting a Harper’s expose from last yeat which detailed Keller’s affair with a staff assistant who later became his second wife.  Keep in mind that Keller came to office in 2001 on a “family values” platform.

In a glossy new campaign mailer, the Democratic congressional candidate accuses his opponent — U.S. Rep. Ric Keller, R-Orlando — of infidelity and betraying a platform of “all-American family values.” The mailer reprints an article that appeared in the online edition of Harper’s Magazine in November 2007.

…

The Harper’s piece alleges that Keller cheated on his first wife with a staff member, Danielle “Dee Dee” Michel, whom he hired when she was 23 after he was elected in 2000 and married in 2005. It also notes that Keller placed her in plum positions in his office and on his campaign.

The author, Ken Silverstein, wrote, “I spoke with four people, each of whom would only speak with me on condition of anonymity, and each of whom told me that Keller’s relationship with the staffer began while he was still married.”

Reached Tuesday night, Silverstein defended the article. “I have no doubt the story is true,” he said.

While Keller predictably called the mailer “gutter politics” and assailed Grayson, nasty personal attacks are nothing new for the congressman:

Indeed, Keller used the mailer route to his advantage in this year’s Republican primary against attorney Todd Long. A Keller mailer, designed to resemble a police file, showed police reports documenting Long’s drunken brushes with the law.

Note that this was Keller’s primary opponent this year who the incumbent only beat 53-47, despite Long spending almost no money, and having been arrested for drunk driving, public drunkedness, and having been found sleeping on a bench outside of a high school

While this race has mostly fallen under the radar with FL-21/24/25 getting all of the attention, this is a top-tier pick-up opportunity for us, and our candidate Grayson has deep pockets from which to spend.  Ric Keller is in big trouble next month.  

http://www.orlandosentinel.com…

Great news.  After the Alaska Division of Elections counted the remaining 25,000 absentee and questioned votes, Don Young’s lead is at 129 votes, down from 151.  

With the lead shrinking a bit, it looks like we’re headed to recount territory, but Young is holding on.  This is solid news for Ethan Berkowitz, as Palin and Young’s bitter relationship likely won’t bring the longtime incumbent many coattails.  

http://www.ktuu.com/Global/sto…

Young’s lead over Parnell down to 129 votes

Posted: Sep 5, 2008 09:22 PM EDT

by Jason Lamb

Friday, Sept. 5, 2008

ANCHORAGE, Alaska — After counting absentee and questioned ballots Friday the Alaska Division of Elections released new numbers in the airtight Republican primary race between incumbent Congressman Don young and Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell for Alaska’s U.S. House seat.

Young now leads Parnell by a mere 129 votes.

There were 85,000 votes cast in the race leading up to today’s adjusted tallies.

Elections workers began counting the questioned and absentee ballots Friday morning at the Anchorage office of the Division of Elections.

The most recently counted ballots were checked to ensure they were postmarked correctly. Absentee ballots had to be postmarked by the Aug. 26 primary election day.

Elections officials also made sure that ballots were cast by registered Alaska voters.    

Parnell released a statement earlier Friday, saying, “We understand that over 25,000 ballots were to be counted today. Given that the current difference in votes is so small, anything can happen and we remain cautiously optimistic about the results.”

Despite Friday’s updated results, though, the race is still not over.

Elections officials still must count a few areas that ran out of ballots on primary election day, totaling about 250 votes.    

Absentee ballots cast overseas will not be counted until next week.