Author: Andy Dufresne

Obama campaign aims resources to help lower races

In an interesting article today, Obama’s campaign manager indicated that a great part of Obama’s goal in putting resources into traditionally red states is to help Senate and congressional candidates who can win.  


But winning the White House won’t be his only goal, deputy campaign manager Hildebrand told Politico: In an unusual move, Obama’s campaign will also devote some resources to states it’s unlikely to win, with the goal of influencing specific local contests in places like Texas and Wyoming.

“Texas is a great example where we might not be able to win the state, but we want to pay a lot of attention to it,” Hildebrand said. “It’s one of the most important redistricting opportunities in the country.”

Texas Democrats are five seats away in each chamber from control of the state legislature, which will redraw congressional districts after the 2010 census.

In Wyoming, Democrat Gary Trauner, running for the state’s sole congressional seat, lost narrowly against an incumbent in 2006 and is now seeking an open seat.

“If we can register more Democrats, if we can increase the Democratic performance and turnout, maybe we can pick up a congressional seat,” Hildebrand said.

This is truly amazing news.  Obama and his campaign are not just dedicated to expanding the map for the Senator’s own race, but they are interested in helping out a host of other candidates.  I know this is a different year than years past, but I am extremely impressed with their focus.  They realize that this could be a cycle that is unlikely to come about again for Democrats.  


“This November, we have a chance to create a Democratic Senate majority like we haven’t seen in decades – but it won’t happen on its own,” he wrote.

The whole article is worth a read.  

http://www.politico.com/news/s…

VA-Sen, VA-Gov: Warner up big; Dems down in Governor’s race

Public Policy Polling has new numbers for the Senate race this year, and the Governor’s race next year.  

In the Senate race, PPP finds what just about every other poll has found

Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner (D) 59%

Fmr. Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) 28%

The governor’s race is a bit more interesting.  PPP finds that the presumptive Republican nominee has a small lead against the two Democrats vying to win the Democratic nomination

Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) 32%

State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) 27%

Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) 33%

State Del. Brian Moran 27%

While we are down early here, I would like our chances with either nominee.  Deeds lost the 2005 Attorney General’s race to McDonnell by 323 votes.  Moran is the brother of U.S. Rep. Jim Moran.  

While Moran is seen as the early favorite in the Democratic primary, the race could be close.  

Finally, the poll gives Obama a 47-45 lead over McCain in the Commonwealth.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

OH-Sen (2010): Poll shows Voinovich tied with Tim Ryan

Public Policy Polling just released an Ohio survey showing Sen. Obama with a big lead over Sen. McCain, 50-39.  While this is tremedous news, PPP also polled potential 2010 Senate match-ups below the fold which are probably of great interest here.

George Voinovich approvals:

Approve 31%

Disapprove 39%

31% approval for an incumbent and a long-time Ohio political figure (he was also Mayor of Cleveland then Governor)?  That is bad.  But it gets better.


In a potential 2010 Senate race between Sen. Voinovich and Rep. Tim Ryan:

Sen. George Voinovich 33%

Rep. Tim Ryan 33%

In a potential 2010 Senate race between Sen. Voinovich and Rep. Betty Sutton:

Sen. George Voinovich 37%

Rep. Betty Sutton 32%

I realize 2010 is a long ways away, but these are awful numbers for Voinovich.  He is at 33 percent and tied with Tim Ryan, and barely ahead of Betty Sutton who is serving her first term in Sherrod Brown’s old seat.  I am not sure why PPP only polled Reps. Ryan and Sutton, and not Reps. Wilson and Space, but I figure as this was primarily a presidential poll, they did not want to ask a lot of Senate 2010 questions.  

Voinovich is clearly vulnerable as things stand.  If the rumors about Ryan going for the Senate in 2010 are true, the incumbent could be endangered.  

Though I would quickly add that the poll is skewed to the Democrats, as the cross-tabs show it is made up of 55% Democrats, 30% Republicans, and the rest indies.  

Link: http://www.publicpolicypolling…

SSP hitting it big

I just noticed this small item from Roll Call this past week, and thought it was worth posting.

Blogs Gaining Credibility at Senate Committees

June 13, 2008, 4:27 p.m.

When Charles Schumer (D) was elected to the New York State Assembly in the mid-1970s, some of his older colleagues were still getting used to the television technology, the Senator joked at a recent meeting with Roll Call reporters and editors. Now, the Empire State’s senior Senator counts blogs as part of his daily information appetite.

Schumer’s aides at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee include a number of blogs in his daily packet of media clippings, which also include relevant stories from the day’s newspapers and television shows. But the DSCC chairman is also known to read them on his own.

Items from the Huffington Post, Daily Kos, America Blog, Talking Points Memo, Swing State Project and Senate Guru are usually included, as well as state-specific blogs in 2008 Senate battlegrounds.

Blogs are also getting more attention at the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

GOP aides scan national blogs such as Red State, Townhall and Hot Air for information, as well as state-specific blogs, such as the Dead Pelican (Louisiana), Minnesota Democrats Exposed and the Politicker Web sites in states with Senate races.

Just a couple of election cycles ago, including blogs alongside newspaper and television clippings would have been unthinkable, but this is just one example of how the flow of information is changing and affecting political campaigns.

– Nathan L. Gonzales

http://www.rollcall.com/news/2…

If Chuck Schumer reads the site, I think it speaks well to SSP’s quality.  

AK-Sen, AK-AL: Poll finds Begich up seven; Berkowitz crushing Young but losing to Parnell

A new Hellenthal and Associates poll has found a strong lead for Mark Begich in his race against Sen. Ted Stevens

Mark Begich 51 percent

Ted Stevens 44 percent

The poll also has a lot of House numbers.  In a (possible) race against Rep. Don Young, Ethan Berkowitz crushes the 17-term incumbent by a wide margin

Ethan Berkowtiz 58 percent

Don Young 38 percent

Before you start celebrating, however, the poll also breaks down a Berkowitz-Parnell match-up

Ethan Berkowitz 38 percent

Sean Parnell 43 percent

This is the first public poll of a Berkowitz-Parnell match-up, and it gives the Alaska LG a five-point lead, just as many of us feared.  Still, being down 43-to-38 is not awful and the race would still be winnable for Berkowitz.  I think it would be close, but an uphill fight, particularly is Parnell gains more momentum over the summer.  

Finally, the poll appears to be first public poll to hit the GOP primary:

Sean Parnell 37 percent

Don Young 34 percent

Gabrielli LeDoux 8 percent

Indeed, Don Young is in serious trouble, and I see Parnell winning going away, particularly since State Rep. LeDoux is doing so poorly in splitting the anti-Young vote.

I have never heard of this pollster, but if accurate, this is more great news for us in Alaska, with Begich looking great and Berkowitz looking competitive against Parnell.

http://newsminer.com/news/2008…

Poll: Begich has edge on Stevens

Published Monday, June 9, 2008

WASHINGTON – A recent poll shows Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich leading incumbent Ted Stevens in the U.S. Senate race.

The survey found 51 percent of those responding would vote for Begich in November’s general election, compared to 44 percent who said they would back Stevens.

The poll indicates Begich is gaining name recognition across the state, but Stevens, who’s served in the Senate since 1968, also remains popular.

Some 58 percent of responders said they felt very or somewhat positive toward Begich, while only 16 percent had a negative opinion of the 45-year-old Democratic mayor. Eleven percent of those responding didn’t know of Begich.

For Stevens, the numbers were a little closer – 49 percent had a positive opinion, while 40 percent had a negative opinion. All of the survey’s 269 responders knew Stevens was the state’s senior senator.

Stevens’ bid to win a seventh full term in the Senate has been overshadowed by an ongoing corruption investigation by the U.S. Justice Department. Stevens has not been charged with any wrongdoing.

High name recognition may partially explain why the poll shows Stevens beating challenger Dave Cuddy by 15 percentage points in the Republican primary. More than 42 percent of poll participants said they had no idea who Cuddy was.

The poll did not ask about the Democratic primary, in which Begich faces Ray Metcalfe, founder of the Moderate Republican Party, and Frank Vondersaar. It also did not contain questions about the other seven long-shot candidates who hope to serve as Alaska’s next senator.

Half of those responding to the survey had no party affiliation or were registered Independents. Registered Republicans made up 27 percent of respondents; Democrats made up 22 percent.

The poll was conducted between May 6 and May 10 by Anchorage firm Hellenthal and Associates. It has a 6 percent margin of error.

The survey was paid for by Sam Kito, a lobbyist whose clients include the North Slope Borough.

House race

In the U.S. House race, nearly 42 percent of respondents said they would vote for former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz in the Democratic primary, compared to 30 percent who said they preferred Diane Benson. Nearly 29 percent said they were still undecided.

In the general election, Berkowitz would beat Young by a wide margin, 58 percent to 38 percent, according to the poll.

However, a matchup between Berkowitz and Republican Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell would likely go to Parnell, who received 43 percent to Berkowitz’ 38 percent in the survey.

Some 41 percent of those taking the poll had a positive opinion of Berkowitz, while only 13 percent noted a negative opinion. Twenty-six percent said they were neutral on the question of how they felt about Berkowitz, while nearly 21 percent had no idea who he was. Parnell and Benson had similar numbers in the unknown column.

Benson’s positives were 35 percent, compared to 12 percent who said they had a negative opinion of her. More than 25 percent said they had not made up their mind about her.

Parnell has a slim lead on incumbent Don Young (37 percent to 34 percent) in the GOP primary, though it’s still within the margin of error. Kodiak state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux was a distant third with just 8 percent of the vote. Some 15 percent of those responding said they were still undecided.

Nearly 46 percent of those asked had a positive opinion of Parnell. Only 8 percent said they had a negative opinion and 25 percent said they had a no opinion.

Young, whose close ties to lobbyists have prompted federal investigators to take a closer look at his activities, had more lopsided results: 35 percent positive, 52 percent negative, 13 percent undecided. Young denies any wrongdoing and has not been charged with a crime.

The poll found 12 percent of those asked had a positive opinion of Republican state representative LeDoux, while 10 percent had a negative opinion and 27 percent were undecided. More than half of the respondents did not recognize LeDoux’s name.

The poll did not contain questions about Frank Frost of Anchorage and Don Wright of Kenai, who have filed to run in the House race under the Alaska Independence Party banner.

The House and Senate primary elections are Aug. 26.

NJ-03: Bad blood from primary spilling over into general

It looks like the regional fight between Burlington and Ocean Counties in Southern Jersey that came out in the GOP primary to suceed Rep. Jim Saxton may be spilling over into the general election, much to the benefit of the Democrats.  

The infighting between the two county GOP organizations has been simmering for some time.  In the wake of Ocean County’s nominee Jack Kelly getting trounced in the primary by Burlington’s Chris Myers, Ocean County’s GOP chair, George Gilmore, issued a warning:

“Chris Myers ran a very negative, personal attack against Jack Kelly. I think Mr. Myers has to recognize the consequences of taking such action.”

This is interesting for several reasons.  First, the anger between the two county organiztions is very bitter, and has not healed since Tuesday.  Ocean County and its GOP leadership is much more conservative and combative than Burlington, and this is well demonstrated by Gilmore himself.  

Second, Gilmore is completely capable of cutting of his nose to spite the GOP’s face.  In fact, he has done it before.  Early in the campaign, soon after Saxton announced his retirement, many in the state and national GOP were trying desperately to coax popular moderate State Sen. Diane Allen into the race.  Allen would have unquestionably been the GOP’s best nominee, and probably would have held the seat for the GOP.  The problem?  Allen is from Edgewater Park Township in Burlington County, and this did not gibe with Gilmore who announced he would put a separate Ocean candidate if Allen ran.  After Gilmore put up a stink, Allen opted to avoid the headache of fighting with Ocean County and Gilmore and not to make a go of it, much to the chagrin of the NRCC.    

Third, Gilmore is the head NJ’s GOP County Chairmen as well as the head of one of the GOP’s most powerful (and last remaining) Republican machines.  If he decided to snub Myers, it would guarantee that we win the seat.  

In sum, Gilmore has already hurt the GOP twice in this race by helping force Sen. Allen out of the race, and then running Kelly to weaken eventual winner Myers.  Let us hope he continues acting stupid.

http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.d…

Poll of 45 competitive House districts gives Dems a seven-point lead

I am not sure if this has already been posted, but it is a story that should interest everyone.  Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (a prominent Democratic outfit) just released a poll they conducted of the 45 most competitive GOP-controlled districts (as defined by them), and the poll shows that Democratic challengers lead 50-to-43.  

The survey was conducted of 1,600 likely voters from May 19-26.  Very interestingly, the firm did a similar poll four months ago which found Democrats trailing by one point.  This change certainly shows substantial move towards Democrats as we get closer to November.  

Before doing their poll, CQR decided on what they believed were the top 45 most competitive districts currently in GOP hands (I will go over those below), and then chopped them into a first tier and a second tier.  In the first tier districts, Democrats held a healthy 51-to-42 lead.  Perhaps even more interesting, in the second tier races, Democrats lead 48-to-45 percent.  

According to the poll, Bush is weighing down many GOP candidates, as his approval rating in these 45 districts — many of them red districts — stands at 33 percent.  

When named in individually-polled districts, the GOP incumbents received an average approval rating of 38 percent.  Democrats polled 17 points ahead of the GOP on the issue of the economy, and 11 points higher on the war in Iraq.  Republicans polled three points higher than Dems on the issue of handling illegal immigration.  

The poll found that Dems hold a five-point advantage on current party ID, and edge the GOP with independents by a slim 43-to-41.  

Perhaps most troubling is that in these districts, Obama and McCain are tied 47-to-47.  

Here are the districts included in the poll, broken up by tier:

TIER 1.  AZ-01 (Renzi), CA-04 (Doolittle), CT-04 (Shays), IL-11 (Weller), MI-09 (Knollenberg), MN-03 (Ramstad), MO-06 (Graves), NV-03 (Porter), NJ-03 (Saxton), NJ-07 (Ferguson), NM-01 (Wilson), NY-13 (Fossella), NY-25 (Walsh), NC-08 (Hayes), OH-02 (Schmidt), OH-15 (Pryce), OH-16 (Regala), PA-06 (Gerlach), VA-11 (Davis), WV-02 (Capito Moore), and WY-AL (Cubin).  

TIER 2.  AL-02 (Everett), AK-AL(Young), CO-04 (Musgrave), FL-08 (Keller), FL-13 (Buchanan), FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart), FL-24 (Feeney), ID-01 (Sali), IL-10 (Kirk), IL-18 (LaHood), KY-02 (Lewis), LA-04 (McCrery), MD-01 (Gilchrest), MI-07 (Walberg), MO-09 (Hulshof), NJ-02 (LoBiando), NM-02 (Pearce), NY-26 (Reynolds), NY-29 (Kuhl), OH-01 (Chabot), OH-14 (LaTourette), VA-02 (Drake), VA-10 (Wolf), WA-08 (Reichert).  

Keep in mind, these districts were chosen not just based on our chances of winning them, but also on their breakdown (i.e. PVI index).  So, while we may have a mediocre opponent in a district, in a vacuum it can still be considered Tier One.  

While they hit all the close ones, at the outset you can probably pick a bit at some of these selections.  CA-04, MO-06, OH-02, WV-02, WY-AL and probably NC-08 should all be in the second tier as they are fairly strong GOP strongholds and not that close to going blue in the long haul.  While we will not win PA-06, it should be on in the poll as the district is winnable, we just did not recruit a top person.  

In Tier Two, we could argue this, but in my opinion, as it stands now, ID-01, IL-18, VA-10 and probably MD-01 should be Tier Three districts.  You could argue OH-01 being in Tier One.  While NY-26, NY-29, WA-08 and probably CO-04 should be Tier One in terms of flipping, the districts themselves are Tier Two districts.  While we will not win these two this cycle, NJ-02 and OH-14 are certainly competitive for us, we just have crummy opponents for them.  (Incidentally, we need to target these two hard in 2010).    

On balance, this poll is fascinating and I think they did a good job in bracketing the districts by current race and general character.  Clearly, the GOP brand, even in pretty red districts is badly damaged (like we didn’t know that already), and the Democrats have a spectacular opportunity this November.  Heck, even if a handful of these districts are a little poorly-organized by tier, the fact that we are ahead nine points in Tier One — which includes several really red districts like MO-06, OH-02, WV-02, and WY-AL bodes very well for us.  Ditto Tier Two.  

Obviously that Obama-McCain head-to-head is very troubling, but Obama has a lot of time to get and there and make his case to the independent voters in these swing districts.  I like his chances, as it stands.  

You can take this poll with a bit of salt because it is from a Democratic pollster.  Also, with an overall sample size of 1,600, divided by 45 districts, that comes out to an average of just under 36 voters per district — hardly a large sample.  

Yet, while I will not look at this poll as gospel, I think the overall numbers we get are promising and show that at the very least, we have much better strength then the GOP going into November, even in red-leaning districts.  If this poll is accurate, a 25+ seat gain is possible.  

http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?…

Novak: Rendell considering 2010 Senate run

While this is coming from Bob Novak’s column, I found it very interesting nonetheless.  I would still guess that Rendell won’t challenge Specter because (1) they are friends; and (2) I am not sure the Senate would be Rendell’s cup of tea.  

That being said, 2010 is a long ways away, plus Rendell realizes that after he leaves Harrisburg, he will be out of office completely.  It would certainly be a great opening, and there is no doubt Rendell would be our best possible nominee.  Besides, given Specter’s age, all of his talk about definitely running may just be bluster.  

SPECTER’S OPPONENT?

Pennsylvania’s popular Democratic Gov. Edward Rendell is reported by party sources to be considering a race for the Senate in 2010 even if his friend and fellow Philadelphian, Republican Sen. Arlen Specter, seeks re-election.

Specter has indicated that he wants a sixth term in the Senate, but that may depend on his health. He is suffering from a recurrence of cancer.

Republican insiders believe that Specter might decide to run as an independent if conservatives launch another serious Republican primary campaign against him, as they did in 2004. A three-way election would all but guarantee the election of a Democrat.