Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/24-27, Mississippi voters, no trendlines)
Johnny DuPree (D): 25
Phil Bryant (R): 56
Undecided: 19Bill Luckett (D): 27
Phil Bryant (R): 53
Undecided: 20Johnny DuPree (D): 28
Dave Dennis (R): 41
Undecided: 31Bill Luckett (D): 25
Dave Dennis (R): 43
Undecided: 32Johnny DuPree (D): 28
Hudson Holliday (R): 37
Undecided: 35Bill Luckett (D): 28
Hudson Holliday (R): 38
Undecided: 34
(MoE: ±3.4%)
The 2011 gubernatorial race doesn’t look to be much of a challenge for the Republicans to hold; neither Dem nominee, either Hattiesburg mayor Johnny Dupree or businessman and Morgan Freeman chum Bill Luckett, comes anywhere close. (If you’re wondering why they didn’t poll anyone stronger, nobody else is coming; the field is already closed.) The Republican primary — between Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant, whom I expect is the favorite based on being the only of the five candidates with name rec over 50% or positive favorables (32/27), businessman Dave Dennis, and retired general and county commissioner Hudson Holliday — is where the real action will be, but it doesn’t seem like PPP polled the primaries.
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/24-27, Mississippi voters, no trendlines)
Travis Childers (D): 33
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 51
Undecided: 15Jim Hood (D): 36
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 50
Undecided: 14Mike Moore (D): 38
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 14Ronnie Musgrove (D): 35
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 52
Undecided: 13Gene Taylor (D): 36
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±3.4%)
With no Dem challenger on the horizon for Roger Wicker (who beat ex-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in 2008, after previously being appointed by Haley Barbour to succeed Trent Lott), PPP throws the entire Dem bench up at the low-profile Wicker and finds that nothing really sticks, as he has a pretty strong 51/23 approval, including 33/29 among Dems. If anything, it gives a relative sense of what Dems are best liked here… it’s probably ex-AG Mike Moore, who polls within 10 and has 39/23 favorables.
I sincerely doubt he’d run but it still seems strange that a former Governor, former Ambassador and current Sec. of Navy who to my knowledge hasn’t made a Sherman Statement wouldn’t be tested.
Hood’s approval rating is 43/26!
In neighbouring Louisiana people in coastal areas hate environment protection and support more drilling even after BP disaster. That says something. They want more drilling (and, potentially, more and better paid jobs) – not less…
But yes, you have to run very conservative (socially at least, but not very liberal on economy either) Democrats there. Otherwise – not even 1% chance, that still theoretically exist, and sometimes (just as with Childers in 2008) realises. Childers couldn’t win even in 2008 if he would be anything, but conservative, himself…
That sounds like a Bing Crosby movie!
Nikki Haley did significantly worse than any of the other statewide Republicans in the 2010 Gov election in South Carolina. I didn’t hear about any racist tactics (from Democrats), but I have no doubt that race hurt her in the general election.
No, seriously.
> Johnny DuPree
> Phil Bryant
> Bill Luckett
> Dave Dennis
> Hudson Holliday
> Jim Hood
Who the hell are these people?
former SOS earl clark?
Is the national Democratic Party name there so reviled that not even the most conservative democrat will win statewide? Do we just need to wait for demographic change with African Americans increasing their share of the population? Or is there hope in the near future?
where in almost every race whites now vote 90% (sometimes – even higher) for Republican candidate, Democrats have no chances. Even conservative Democrats. The only exceptions – big scandal or (as it was with Childers in 2008) – weak candidate (bad fit for district) plus exceptionaly bad (for Republicans) year. 2011 and 2012 are unlikely to be that sort of years, so Democrats may forget about these races..
And I wouldn’t say “not gonna happen” while he’s being held under 50%, especially in a presidential election year when it looks like President Obama’s map will be big enough to take chances in states like Georgia, Arizona, and Montana. Maybe there’s room for some spending in Mississippi behind the likes of Atty. Gen. Hood or Mike Moore.