I posted this on daily kos last night. Please read it and let me know what you think.
Unfortunately, my home state of Louisiana is one of the few states that will probably shift ideologically towards the GOP this election cycle. I apologize to the other 49 states (even Utah). If I were Obama, I’d focus on GA or NC or MS.
But the idea that Sen. Mary Landrieu is vulnerable this cycle is untrue. Yes, she was first elected then reelected by the slimest of razor thin margins in ’96 and ’02, but she actually faced opponents then. John N. Kennedy, her “Republican” opponent is a joke. This is evidenced by the fact that he switched from DEM to GOP in an overwhelmingly DEM year. One may argue that Hurricane Katrina hurt her chances, but most African-American refugees moved either to Baton Rouge or Lafayette. (On a side note many who moved out of state to Houston were from St. Bernard Parish, a republican-dominated suburb.)
Also, most people don’t blame her for the government’s response. Indeed, she is seen as one, perhaps the only one, who gave her all to see Louisiana renewed. Most Louisianians, myself included, blame both Bush and then-Gov. Blanco. Quite a few blame Vitter for not having any gall to stand up to Bush. But few blame Mary.
And, last but not least, she has millions more than Kennedy to spend on this campaign. Even if the NRSC pumps $ into this race (i hope they do) it’ll be a waste. Don’t worry, Mary will win a 3rd term much more solidly than her first 2.
Part two: why Erik Fleming is a viable candidate in MS-A.
In 2006, Erik managed more than a third of the vote. I know what you’re thinking…he got beat 2:1 in a democratic year and he’s a viable candidate? But hear me out.
First, Sen. Obama’s coattails will greatly benefit Democrats in Mississippi. GOTV was not nearly as well organised in 2006 as it is now. Black voter registration drives will meet their goal of registering 100,000 new voters this cycle.
Second, Ronnie Musgrove’s coattails will help. The DSCC will be dumping $$$ into this state for Musrove, so why can’t they drop 50k for Fleming? He could do a lot with that money. Oh, and all this talk about Musgrove’s party ID not being on the special election ballot giving him an advantage is sillyness, as everyone in MS remembers his governorship. Everyone knows he’s a Democrat. (And, barring a macaca gaffe on his part, he will probably beat Sen. Wicker.) Studies show that people willing to vote for one party in a federal race are more willing to support that same party in other federal races. This only showed effect on down ballot, not the presidential level. Won’t help Obama much, but it could help Fleming.
Third, Fleming was totally unknown in 2006. His grass roots campaign was not enough, sadly. He was drastically outspent because he raised very little money (less than $45,000 for the whole cycle). Unfortunately, his pitiful fundraising abilities look to repeat this cycle unless you help him out. But now he has gotten through one statewide race. He’ll win his second if we help him enough.
Fourth, Trent Lott, Fleming’s 06 opponent, was much more powerful in DC and much more popular in MS than Thad Cochrane. He was a tougher opponent. And Erik walked away with more than a third of the vote, a % that will only increase as GOTV efforts strengthen in the South. Cochrane gonna have to go sometime, why not now?
Fifth, he is a liberal. I know! A liberal in mississippi! Finally. He has relatively liberal social views, wants withdrawl from Iraq, and is against drilling in ANWR. See his website for all his views.
But, and this is the good bit, he is not seen as ‘tax and spend librul’ like Vivian Figures is in AL. He can paint himself as a moderate to conservative like Musgrove. Low name recognition is a good thing sometimes 🙂
So, please, if you were planning to give a few dollars to Landrieu to ensure her reelection, don’t. Instead, Donate to Erik Fleming!
And, most importantly of all, think positive.
Yes, MS-A is the longest of longshots, but we didn’t take Congress in aught six by thinking about what we couldn’t win. It’s called a 50 state strategy for a reason. Never say never.
Almost forgot, we have to get rid of Dollar Bill Jefferson in NOLA. Support Helena Moreno for LA-02!