Public Policy Polling (PDF) (11/19-21, North Carolina voters, no trendlines):
Bev Perdue (D-inc): 37
Pat McCrory (R): 49
Undecided: 14Bev Perdue (D-inc): 40
Tom Fetzer (R): 42
Undecided: 19
(MoE: 4.3%)
Bev Perdue nosed beat former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory two years ago by a little over 3%. Now, two solid years into the shittiest economy in the better part of a century, Perdue’s job approval sucks hard (33-49) and McCrory is looking good. I think it’s pretty safe to say Perdue would have been blown out of the water had she been up for re-election this year – obviously the million-dollar question is whether she can recover before Nov. 2012. I don’t feel too good about that prospect.
Pat McCrory (R): 37
Tom Fetzer (R): 12
Virginia Foxx (R): 11
Sue Myrick (R): 6
Fred Smith (R): 4
Cherie Berry (R): 3
Patrick McHenry (R): 3
Phil Berger (R): 2
Someone else/undecided: 22
(MoE: 4.9%)
McCrory is also looking pretty good in a hypothetical GOP primary (PDF), with former Raleigh mayor Tom Fetzer and batshit crazy Rep. Virginia Foxx way behind in the low teens. But as PPP suggests, McCrory may not even face a challenge for the Republican nod.
To see them ask Cooper and Moore instead.
No other word for it, and as much as my eternally optimistic collegues on this blog may deny it, there is no sign that the economy or job market will be bouncing back in any meaningful way, private sector jobs grew at 30% of forcast and unemployment (u3) ticked UP to 9.8%!
McCrory as mayor and gubernatorial candidate was a “sane conservative”. Surely, much more so then Fetzer or Foxx…
it would have suggested a bloodbath for Democrats in 96. That didn’t happen. So I’d say looking at the polls right now isn’t too instructive as to what will really happen down the road.
since she barely won election. But wait another year before you declare her DOA.
And I say that not based on any hypothetical polls but on reality. Why would people who showed up in 2008 thinking they were getting real change bother to show up in ’12 when all they’ve gotten is sustained unemployment & capitulation to the right/republicans at every turn? If I were Ms Purdue and any other dem up for reelection I would start paying attention to the concerns of the average voter in my state and at least fake like i’m actually trying to fight for them.
Thanking the troops, should be a great photo op if anyone takes a break from the tax extension negotiations to notice.
When I was looking at this blog in early 2009, I thought people were way too optimistic about what was going to happen in 2010. It’s a pretty commonly known fact that, absent extraordinary events (i.e. impeachment, 9-11), the president’s party loses pretty big in midyear elections. We had people predicting the Dems were going to not only gain Senate seats, but even House seats (after all, we had left some on the table in 2008).
Now I have the opposite reaction about 2012. It is ridiculous to be pessimistic about an election two years from now. 1948, 1984, 1996 and arguably 1976 (where Ford almost won) are several examples when the president has made a comeback from where he and his party were two years before.
I admit, I’m not totally happy with Obama myself right now, but there’s plenty of time to turn things around. It’s fun to talk about polls right now, but they rarely mean anything this far out.
I think can be very helpful in places like Massachusetts, Nevada, Connecticut and maybe Wisconsin for the democratic side. This can help a lot for have the best candidates in every race.
Perdue hasn’t been helped by the horrible economy. Everyone is hearing the words “budget deficit” and how schools will receive less money. The Democratic base is somewhat deflated in the Tarheel state. However, I don’t know if McCrory will actually win in a primary. Truth be told, he’s not in the same teabagging mold that many amongst his ranks would approve. Best bet for Perdue: let McCrory implode, pray for an uptick in the economy, and try her best to ride any coattails that Obama provides.