PA-Sen: Casey in Command (For Now)

Public Policy Polling (1/3-5, Pennsylvania voters):

Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 51

Charlie Dent (R): 31

Undecided: 18

Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 49

Jim Gerlach (R): 33

Undecided: 18

Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 48

Rick Santorum (R): 41

Undecided: 10

Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 47

Mark Schweiker (R): 34

Undecided: 18

Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 50

Marc Scaringi (R): 27

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.2%)

PPP’s first look at the 2012 Pennsylvania Senate race finds Bob Casey Jr. in, superficially, very good shape, leading most of his potential challengers by substantial double digits. He also sports a robust 41/29 approval rating (the best rating for any of the statewide politicians polled). I say “superficially,” though, because his mondo leads seem to be based mostly on the sheer unknown-ness of most of his opposition and the fact that he’s still only hanging around the 50% mark. Charlie Dent and Jim Gerlach, for instance, seem little known outside their districts and aren’t getting the benefit of the doubt from those who don’t know them, sporting 6/18 and 9/17 favorables respectively.

I’d expect those numbers to tighten quite a bit over the course of a real campaign, if only because the one candidate Casey isn’t dominating is probably the weakest candidate the GOP could put up against him but is, if nothing else, the best-known option: Rick Santorum, who lost to Casey 59-41 in 2006 and hasn’t done anything to rehabilitate his image since then. The numbers against Santorum seem consistent with the ones Quinnipiac found a month ago running Casey against Generic R (where Casey won 43-35, based on 39/29 approval). At any rate, even before this poll it seemed highly unlikely that Santorum, Dent, or Gerlach runs… not that there’d be much utility right now in polling somebody like state Sen. Jake Corman who’ll probably wind up the eventual candidate but for now is utterly unknown (as seen in the numbers for Marc Scaringi, a former Santorum aide who’s the only announced candidate so far).