Public Policy Polling (1/20-23, West Virginia voters, no trendlines):
Joe Manchin (D-inc): 50
Shelley Moore Capito (R): 41
Undecided: 10Joe Manchin (D-inc): 57
David McKinley (R): 28
Undecided: 14Joe Manchin (D-inc): 60
John Raese (R): 31
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±2.9%)
I think, if you were to try and set up West Virginians’ feelings about their politicians as a mathematical equation, it would look something like this: Joe Manchin > Shelley Moore Capito > (very large gap) > various other Dems > various other Republicans. This can be seen in PPP’s sample this week, which starts with their look at the 2012 Senate race, with Manchin beating all Republican opponents and having made the jump to federal office with sky-high approvals down somewhat but mostly intact, at 52/32 (with much of the drop in approvals coming from liberals, believe it or not). Capito is in similar very-positive terrain at 54/30, but nevertheless loses to Manchin, probably because of the disparity in Dem vs. GOP registrations in West Virginia and that there’s little Dem defection from Manchin.
Public Policy Polling (1/20-23, West Virginia voters, no trendlines):
Earl Ray Tomblin (D): 40
Shelley Moore Capito (R): 48
Undecided: 12Earl Ray Tomblin (D): 54
Clark Barnes (R): 22
Undecided: 24Earl Ray Tomblin (D): 49
Betty Ireland (R): 32
Undecided: 19Earl Ray Tomblin (D): 53
Mike Stuart (R): 20
Undecided: 28John Perdue (D): 33
Shelley Moore Capito (R): 52
Undecided: 15John Perdue (D): 41
Clark Barnes (R): 23
Undecided: 36John Perdue (D): 37
Betty Ireland (R): 37
Undecided: 26John Perdue (D): 41
Mike Stuart (R): 21
Undecided: 38Natalie Tennant (D): 37
Shelley Moore Capito (R): 49
Undecided: 13Natalie Tennant (D): 49
Clark Barnes (R): 23
Undecided: 28Natalie Tennant (D): 43
Betty Ireland (R): 32
Undecided: 26Natalie Tennant (D): 48
Mike Stuart (R): 22
Undecided: 31Rick Thompson (D): 29
Shelley Moore Capito (R): 54
Undecided: 18Rick Thompson (D): 34
Clark Barnes (R): 24
Undecided: 43Rick Thompson (D): 31
Betty Ireland (R): 37
Undecided: 32Rick Thompson (D): 33
Mike Stuart (R): 22
Undecided: 45
(MoE: ±2.9%)
If you have the stamina to wade through all 16 of these gubernatorial permutations, you can see a definite pattern: Dems win big, unless the GOP gets Shelley Moore Capito into the race, in which case she’s favored (or unless Rick Thompson wins the nomination, as he manages to lose to Betty Ireland). The question PPP asks specifically says “If the candidates for governor this year were…” so, however, keep in mind that Capito has basically declined to run in the special election. Nevertheless, she hasn’t ruled out a run in 2012, so assuming these numbers stay valid for another year, there’s a distinct possibility that whichever Dem wins the special election in 2011 could have a very short tenure if Capito does decide to run in 2012. In fact, if Earl Ray Tomblin doesn’t win the Dem primary, we could have two one-year gubernatorial terms in a row. Tomblin starts in a good place, though, with 42/20 approvals; Betty Ireland seems to fare the best of the “other” GOPers, with 33/19 faves.
If you’re wondering, here’s who all these various people are:
Earl Ray Tomblin: Democratic state Senate president and acting Governor until the October 2011 special election
John Perdue: Democratic state Treasurer
Natalie Tennant: Democratic Secretary of State
Rick Thompson: Democratic state House speaker
Shelley Moore Capito: Republican Rep. from WV-02
Clark Barnes: Republican state Senator
Betty Ireland: Republican ex-SoS
Mike Stuart: Republican state party chair
I can’t remembe another case of a special election for governor…I think coming up with a reliable turnout model is almost impossible.
I’d have expected that to be a little tighter (and it’s not remotely surprising that liberals opinions of Manchin fell after the campaign he ran and the embarrassing/right-wing goof of his missed votes over the holidays).
Tomblin (basically a version of Manchin from the coal counties who’s arguably even more good ole boy) fares a little better than I’d have thought, Tennant a little worse, and Perdue as poorly as one might think. No one knows who Rick Thompson is, so his numbers aren’t surprising.
Overall I’d say whomever the Democrats nominate (also could be Jeff Kessler or Brooks McCabe) will be a slight favorite – though sure Perdue or Thompson would be pushing it.
Who is the likely Tea Flavored Republican? Barnes? Ireland seems like someone who could be easily Tea Bagged in a primary.
From the little that I know I am pulling for Tennant here.
if she does not run in 2011. She has a free pass in the special election, but would have to give up her house seat in 2012. Also, there would be an elected incumbent Governor to run against in 2012 as opposed to an open seat.
only to run in 2012; in 2012 she’d have to give up her House seat and she’d be facing an incumbent.
Is the daughter of former Gov. Arch Moore (1968-76, 1984-88).
Especially with Obama at the top of the ticket and it being WV, is there a chance Capito’s district could be gotten in 2012? Or 2011 I suppose?
I’d bet she changes her mind before too long. (especially after seeing polls like this one)
and who can blame her? Being a Gov these days sucks.
She has a good shot to win in this free year, but if she passes and Tomblin wins and finsishing morphing into Manchin2, then Capito will likely have a tossup (or a dog even) in 2012.
Ireland prob will be the R nominee and lose to the D, Manchin will vote right and win in 2012, and Capito may be smart by running for Gov in 2012 or when the next regular election is, say tossup
If Manchin won in 2010 as a nonincumbent in that toxic environment, his seat is his for as long as he wants (after this year though, who knows).