SSP Daily Digest: 1/26

• MO-Sen: Most likely you already saw this story yesterday, but the big story in the Missouri Senate race is that Politico’s Dave Catanese seems to be the recipient of various leaks that ex-Sen. Jim Talent will announce soon that he isn’t going to run for Senate. We won’t start jumping up and down and honking our clown horn until we actually hear it from Talent, but this isn’t a surprise, based on previous rumors out of the Show Me State and Talent’s seeming decision to focus on hitching his wagon to Mitt Romney’s star instead. Without a dominant establishment candidate in the field, it looks like even more GOPers are starting to sniff out the race: MO-08 Rep. Jo Ann Emerson is now on the record as at least “considering” a run. Emerson, who’s had some mavericky moments in the House, would easily be the most moderate GOPer in the field if she ran (and may see a path there, with multiple tea partiers seeming poised to cannibalize each others’ votes). Emerson’s potential departure would create an open seat in the currently R+15 8th, an area that actually went for Bill Clinton but has fallen off the cliff for Dems in recent years, most recently with the fizzle of the touted Tommy Sowers campaign last year.

• NJ-Sen: PPP, while “cleaning out their fridge” as they said, found some week-old GOP Senate primary numbers from their New Jersey sample. They find state Sen. and 2006 candidate Tom Kean Jr. in good shape, with support from both moderates (which is probably what he would qualify as) and conservatives; he leads Lou Dobbs 42-30 with Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno at 7, “someone else” at 6, and 15 undecided.

• KY-Gov: Filing day came and went without any last-minute shenanigans in Kentucky. Steve Beshear will get a totally free ride in the Democratic primary (looks like that primary from the scrap metal dealer didn’t materialize), and will face one of three GOP opponents: state Senate president David Williams, teabagging businessman Phil Moffett, or Jefferson Co. Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw. The general election field in the AG race is already set; Jack Conway and Todd P’Pool didn’t draw any primary challengers. The most activity seems to be in the Ag Commissioner race (vacated by Richie Farmer, who’s running for Lt. Gov.), with 5 Dems and 2 GOPers running.

• MN-08: This probably isn’t a surprise, but after his upset loss last year, 76-year-old Jim Oberstar has decided to opt for retirement rather than a rerun against new Rep. Chip Cravaack. Two other high-profile Dems, Duluth mayor Don Ness and state Sen. Tony Lourey have also recently said no. Two DFLers who are considering the race, though, are Duluth-based state Sen. Roger Reinert and Daniel Fanning, Al Franken’s deputy state director.

• Omaha mayor: Omaha mayor Jim Suttle narrowly survived a recall attempt in last night’s special election. He won 51-49. Suttle vows to do a better job of communicating with voters in the election’s wake, although it remains an open question whether he runs again in 2013.

• Redistricting: Here’s a new wrinkle in the fight over the Fair Districts initiatives in Florida: Rick Scott seems to be stalling implementation of the new standards (which would limit the state legislature’s ability to gerrymander districts). The state “quietly withdrew” its request that the federal DOJ approve implementation of the initiatives, which jeopardizes whether they’ll be in place in time for the actual business of redistricting. Florida, as a one-time part of the Deep South, is one of those states that requires DOJ preclearance for changes to its electoral regime under the Voting Rights Act.

Politico also has an interesting article today about the Congressional Black Caucus and redistricting, which will reshape many of their districts, seeing as how some of their members’ districts have had the biggest population losses of any districts in the nation (OH-11, MI-13, MI-14, and MO-01 in particular). These districts seem like they can absorb some suburban votes without losing their lopsided Dem advantages, but they’re probably more worried about members getting pitted against each other (as might happen with the two Detroit districts) or against another Dem (possible for Marcia Fudge and Lacy Clay). Other lingering questions are whether Sanford Bishop’s GA-02 (the only CBC-held district that’s legitimately swingy) gets shored up or made worse, and whether South Carolina can be compelled to eke out a second VRA seat.

• Turnout models: I rarely get the chance to say this, but if you look at only one scatterplot today, it should be this one. It’s a remarkably-clear slope showing how predictable presidential approval is across demographic groups, and more evidence that the swing in the 2010 election was uniform across groups in response to macro factors (i.e. the stupid economy) rather than a failure of microtargeting. And here are some further thoughts on the matter from Larry Sabato’s new book, pointing out the really steep dropoffs in 2010 turnout for the groups I tend to label the “casual voters” (reliably Dem lower-information voters, mostly young and/or people of color, who turn out for presidential races but not the less compelling stuff in between), and how the 2010 model isn’t anything like what the 2012 model will resemble.

206 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 1/26”

  1. Redistrictring doesn’t start for months, so supposedly there’s enough time for the state to “review” it before it gets granted preclearance.  Also, it would be massively stupid of them if they tried to prevent it from taking effect as they passed with over 60% of the vote.  Luckily, the Fair Districts group and the FL Dem Party are not going to take this lying down.

  2. I think Emerson’s Senate Race teaser is bluster to try to keep the legislature from packing her in with Carnahan in a new 3rd CD that would run from St. Louis County through Jefferson County and south all the way along the Mississippi River past Cape Girardeau. She would probably have the advantage over Carnahan, but she has never had a real race and maybe hopes this threat might keep her from having one.  

  3. The governor in Florida cannot veto a redistricting plan. Despite many people on liberal blogs saying that Sink was the savior against GOP-gerrymandering, they were wrong.

    Of course, Sink wouldn’t have stalled the implementation, but something tells me that Scott hasn’t won.

  4. … that the Omaha mayor survived the recall.  I really, really dislike the idea of recalling someone just because you don’t like the job they are doing — that’s what the next election is for.

  6. on Kucinich in their new district as Kucinich is suing the House cafeteria.  Why you may ask?  Because he found an olive was not pitted in his sandwich and it caused dental damage.  It sounds like a legit case to me, but anyone who doesn’t read the whole story will think he’s a dumb ass.

  8. There’s still more than enough African American population in the Detroit area to support two districts — especially if you’re willing to cross county lines to attach the Southfield area to the 14th District. Consolidation of the two Detroit districts is at least another Census cycle away — and probably more than that.

    I don’t know where exactly Clarke and Conyers live in Detroit. I suppose the Republicans could draw them into the same district just for fun, but that would be about the extent of their ability to really play with the Detroit districts. In terms of the just-for-fun factor, I’m more expecting Dingell’s hometown of Dearborn to end up wholly in one of the Detroit districts. (If Democrats had control, on the other hand, McCotter’s hometown of Livonia would probably have ended up in a Detroit-based district instead.)

  9. MO-Sen: If this primary does indeed become bloody, will the action be Teabagger versus Teabagger and establishment versus establishment, or will it just be every person for him or herself? I don’t know how many Teabaggers might be thinking about getting in, but I am not sure it matters, since I don’t know if they will be strategic enough to let the others fight it out and try to remain above the fray.

    MN-08: Why aren’t more people jumping into this race? It’s still early, sure, but wouldn’t we hear more about potential candidates, considering what a Democratic seat it is supposed to be?

    Turnout models: I don’t know if it’s possible to discuss this now, but unless the swings tend to move in line with one another throughout different groups across the country, it makes far more sense, I think, the focus on the breakdown amongst each group in different states rather than the nation as a whole, or at the very least in each region.

    I also think the idea of targeting voters is given far too little importance. I don’t think it can override the fundamentals, but it could certainly make a difference in a close race, where the other things are more or less equal.

  10. if he’s counting on a long long series of the following bank shots:

    1. Romney wins the R nomination.

    2. Romney defeats Obama

    3. Romney taps Talent for a cabinet job.

    Running and winning that Senate election is infinitely better odds than that career plan.

  11. While we all await breathlessly the posting of SSP’s first Senate Race Ratings for the 2012 cycle, I thought it’d be fun to take a look at the first ratings for the 2010 cycle, posted two years ago. It shows you how much can change.

    As you can see, all the tossups at this point were Republican. By the time the cycle was over, the Republicans wouldn’t lose any seats.

    A couple of things that SSP was prescient about: Feingold as Likely D (a lot of us would have thought he should be Safe D at this point), and Illinois the same (no one thought Burris would win, but many of us assumed the Dems would be likely to keep the seat).

    The big miss: SSP’s prognosticators completely missed the world of hurt Blanche Lincoln would find herself in by the end of the cycle. (Kos missed this as well for a long time). Turned out the Republican bench in Arkansas wasn’t as weak as everyone thought.

    Anyway, enjoy:

    http://www.swingstateproject.c…

  12. When Obama was making is way through Congress last night to give his speech, Lenard Boswell stopped in to shake his hand. You could also hear him saying “I’ll be running again.” Thought that was a good move on his part given Vilsak’s moves lately.

  13. Republicans pass the repeal of public financing for Presidential campaigns. 10 Democrats (basically all of the remaining blue dogs) join the Republicans on this vote.

    http://www.politico.com/news/s…

    This sort of begs the question in the aftermath of 2008 where Obama opted out of public financing and was able to outspend McCain by a gigantic margin, is public financing obsolete? I mean I doubt any of the GOP candidates who have a legitimate chance of becoming the nominee in 2012 will take public financing in the GE. Neither will Obama.  

  14. I will tell you right now that there will be two Detroit districts.  The idea that the two would be merged is pretty unfounded in any kind of reality on the ground here in Michigan.  The merged district will be in the northern or western Detroit suburbs, not in Detroit proper.

  15. of hearing from Republicans that “the original intent of the founding fathers” blah blah blah.  The founding fathers founded a country with 4 million people in it.  We now have a country with 320 million people in it.  Management of a country almost 100 times larger than when its founding document was created entails a different type of management than the founding fathers could have imagined.  Moreover, the Republicans say that the founding fathers were rebels against the tyrrany of the British empire.  In reality the Constitution was a document that had a much stronger federal government than the original Articles of Confederation because they knew that a weak federal government is one bound for failure.  I’m just sick of Republcans like that idiot Broun from Georgia perverting 230 year old history to fit their radical Ayn Rand politics.

  20. Intersting interview with George Allen on NRO.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/…

    Most intriguing part is he seems to think the challenge to the nomination isn’t ideological (teaparty vs establishment), but simply rebranding himself to get beyone the Macaca flub.

    The GOP primary will be interesting and a similair dynamic may develop in Missouri & Texas – Tea Party “amateurism” vs establishment conservatives. We aren’t talking about the Utah or Deleware primaries last year where moderates were knocked down by tea party conservatives, these are solidly conservative candidates (Allen notes his lifetime ACU rating of 95-100) that can’t be attacked from the RW, but perhaps can be attacked for not being sufficiently vocal in attacking opponents like the TP grassroots wants.

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