Here’s a surprise, and not a welcome one… according to The Fix:
New Mexico Democratic Sen. Jeff Bingaman is expected to announce his retirement today, according to a source close to the decision, a move that further complicates his party’s efforts to hold their Senate majority in 2012….
His retirement, however, creates an open seat contest that both national parties will almost certainly target. Democrats should start the race with an edge, however, given President Obama’s 15-point victory margin in the state in 2008.
This comes despite some fundraising activity recently, and a strong showing in a recent PPP poll. That same poll showed Democratic Reps. Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Lujan beating several Republicans in the event of a Bingaman retirement, so Dems aren’t behind the 8-ball here, but, if this rumor is true, it’s one more plate Patty Murray and the DSCC will have to keep spinning.
UPDATE: Inevitably, we turn to names of potential candidates. In addition to the obvious Heinrich and Lujan, Dave Catanese also cites youngish state Auditor Hector Balderas as a possibility (Balderas issued a statement already, but just to praise Bingaman). Also for the Dems, he reports that ex-LG and 2010 gubernatorial loser Diane Denish is “fully exploring the race” (and given her gubernatorial performance, hopefully those explorations will lead nowhere), as is state USDA Director Terry Brunner. On the GOP side, Rep. Steve Pearce says he’ll “take a serious look” at the race.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Dave Weigel gets some confirmation from ex-Gov. Gary Johnson (the only GOPer to outpoll Heinrich and Lujan according to PPP) that he’s still sticking with the presidential race and not switching to Senate.
this is not what we need. Well….lets get Martin Heinrich in there asap and find someone to hold his seat.
No senator lasts forever and it’s a cheap state for campaigning. That seat is still lean D given the weak R bench and that Obama’s going to romp at the top of the ticket. I’m about as worried about this as I am Connecticut.
Either way, this isn’t terrible news. It’s bad news to have Bingaman retiring, but this seat is not going to be nearly as hard as ND.
Nor would be be as tough as Montana, sans Tester. In a presidential year, this seat should remain in Democratic hands.
What Democrat would be the most worst to nominate but also appear viable in New Mexico?
Let’s all take a few moments to scream, increase our breathing heavily, sigh, and then relax. There, feel better?
I have awful thoughts about these things as much as everyone else, but there’s no reason to panic just yet. It seems like we have two good candidates currently in the House, and if for some reason they can’t do it, we have plenty of state legislators and mayors that could fill the spot. We have demographic trends working in our favor. We have a party that could easily nominate someone that won’t get above 43 percent no matter how hard he or she tries. And we have the best fund raiser our party has ever seen who hasn’t come close to hitting his limit that will actively contest the state, where, of course, he won by 15 points the last time.
It’s annoying to have to worry about what looks like a 95-percent chance race turning into something less, but we have a lot working in our favor. Rather than collectively losing our shit, let’s work on finding potential candidates for the seats in North Dakota, Indiana, and Arizona, among others.
Seems that Heather Wilson is going to be the first name mentioned, but I wonder who might be the most viable GOP nominee. I don’t think Pearce is better positioned than Wilson, but the LG, John Sanchez might actually be the strongest nominee. My thought is he’s got;
1. Hispanic surname
2. Connection to the (thus far) very popular Susanna Martinez
3. Local elected official background, St. Rep legacy could be advantageous in getting the campaign focused on State issues where GOPers are more vialble than on National issues.
4. Electoral Track record, in 2000 he beat the State Speaker of the House (no small feat anywhere)
5. Deep New Mexico roots
Not sure how having been the GOP standard bearer vs Bill Richardson will affect a potential Senate bid, but he won 59% of the primary so he at least looks strong in a primary.
I thought it was shifting to a morning schedule. Is it going back to afternoon?
I like Heinrich’s politics and general appeal more. Those steely blue eyes . . . I’m sorry what was I saying? Heinrich has VP written all over him and legitimate hard working Senator.
However, Lujan is Hispanic, and the US Senate is in DESPERATE need of greater diversity. NM would be a key state in getting a new Hispanic Democrat elected to the US Senate.
Decisions, decisions . . .
That this seat will go to the republicans. Obama should clean up here and the dems should at least have a few good candidates.
In which case it’s probably a Lean D race, with the potential to go Likely D or toss-up. It’s definitely an unwanted headache for Patty Murray, but it shouldn’t be too bad. Obama will have awfully sizable coattails here. I don’t think Johnson will run, though those PPP numbers may encourage John Cornyn to give him a call. If Johnson runs, this might be toss-up all the way, given his curious pull among Independents and some Dems.
For one, Republicans have a weak bench in New Mexico. Second, Obama has a strong lead over all Republicans there and that gives strength downballot. It’s Likely Democrat at the very least.
that it would be better to get Heinrich into the Senate in a Presidential year, which is almost assuredly going to be Dem-friendly when it comes to New Mexico, rather than waiting until 2018 when who knows what the political climate will be like.
Anyway, my prediction is that Heinrich runs for the Senate, while Heather Wilson runs for NM-01. She has a much greater chance of winning the latter.
if he thinks he can win statewide in New Mexico in this or any year. His profile is just all wrong. He’s lucky he got his old seat back, plus a Republican governor is probably going to make it safe for him. He should just stay where he is and count his blessings.
I like the early poll numbers I saw here. While Steve Pierce would be easy to beat again, I’m thinking he knows it and will stay in the House. So we’ll probably run against Wilson (overrated) or some lesser known politician. I’m liking the idea of Senator Heinrich.
Still, sad to see Bingaman leaving. Always thought he was a good senator.
I agree that Pearce doesn’t stand much chance. He also may be assuming that the GOP might hold the House for a while (which is probably more wishful than anything), but he certainly was clobbered the last time he ran for Senate. I would think that the GOP might look for an hispanic candidate, but the Dems still have a big advantage here in a presidential year. It would be interesting if all 3 current House members ran for the Senate, just as was the case in 2008. Perhaps if Pearce did run again, we could grab his seat for another couple of years.
There have certainly been a lot of retirements early on in this cycle. I remember in the last cycle there were a lot of early retirements, mostly on the GOP side. Perhaps these Senators see their peers leaving and realize that there are other things they want to do in their lives. Certainly, in Bingaman’s case, the commute from DC to New Mexico has to be a bit wearing after 30 years.
In the present Senate, (thanks to Wikipedia), there are 61 Senators, (including Sen Coats, who served previously), who have been in office 10 years or less. With the recent retirements, it grows even more. Certainly, with all these new members, there is more willingness to want to do things now, and buck the old timers. There is a sense of urgency and also an ability to be heard because there are so many new voices, one doesn’t have to wait years and years to be allowed to be heard, as was the case in years gone by.
WIth the upcoming battles over the budget, which, whatever your opinions on making cuts, imagine the political ads. Everyone is going to be nailed, no matter what they do. He hates children, she hates the environment, etc.
I wonder who will retire next. The latest drama in Indiana is arguing that Lugar isn’t resident. (After 35 years of service, this comes up now?) This is going to be a rough cycle, with the control of the Senate being so close. I am wondering about Akaka of Hawaii, and perhaps Kohl in Wisconsin. There aren’t any GOP members left to consider, unless Snowe decides to pack it in. There are always a few surprises of course. I wonder if Corker in Tenn. might decide, out of frustration, to leave. I give Nelson of Nebraska credit for even trying, given his poll numbers and reputation within his party. Any other thoughts?
I know he claims to have washed his hands of politics and he’s a bit too conservative for my taste but I think he would be a top tier get here for sure. He has the ability to self fund and with the Democrats already having to defend a boat load of seats that is definitely a plus and we won’t have to defend an open house seat.
Just a thought.
Seriously, unless Gary Johnson runs, Rep. Henrich should be able to grab this one and take off with it.
Hopefully he’s able to clear the field, though, because a racially divisive primary would not be good.
I remember my first Yearly Kos convention in Chicago, 2007. At the time, I remember meeting and being impressed by a guy who was running for Congress at the time, Don Wiviott. Anyone know if he’s interested in perhaps running for a House seat should Lujan or Heinrich go for the Senate?
Two teabaggers already in the race on the GOP side, sounds like.
http://www.nmpolitics.net/inde…
Balderas sounds like a much better option for the Dems than Heinrich, I’d say; Hispanic, rising star, and no DCCC headaches in the 1st. Like some other posters said, there need to be more Hispanic senators, and it’ll cancel out any GOP attempts to win the seat by running a Hispanic candidate (as with Martinez), and without having to risk the nepotism charges with Lujan. Unless there’s some downside to Balderas I’m not getting?
Everyone probably knows this, but it’s just so funny!
Arizona is still Likely R while they breathlessly move NM to Tossup.
http://www.cookpolitical.com/c…
I am pretty surprised that Bingaman is retiring. I was thinking that he was going to run again from all of the news that I had been hearing. I wish him the best and will miss him though I was never able to vote for him (I wasn’t old enough by a few days in 2000 and 2006 I was gone).
That said, this creates a great opportunity for Martin Heinrich. He is bar far my choice to run for the Senate. While as a Latino I would love for another Latino to be in the Senate, Heinrich is a great Representative and would most likely hold the seat. He is solid on the issues, carries himself very well and is knowledgeable about what he discusses. Not that I have anything against Ben Ray Lujan but he does not have the same type of appeal that Heinrich has. I hope that Lujan stays out of the race. Other contenders as mentioned are Auditor Hector Balderas, Diane Denish who I hope stays out, former Albuqueque Mayor Martin Chavez who I also hope stays out.
Heather Wilson is likely going to jump into the race and I think that she would be the GOPs top contender. I don’t see many of the GOP Latinos that could jump in and be more viable than she would be. I don’t think that Steve Pearce is arrogant enough to try and run for the Senate again. I hope he does as he would lose badly again.
A Heinrich vs. Wilson matchup would be great. In a Presidential turnout year I am confident that Heinrich would be able to win. He had a very tough race in 2010 so I’m not concerned about him cracking under pressure. This isn’t a terrible retirement and it is much better that he does it in 2012 and gives a Presidential turnout model when it is likely that NM will be carried by team blue than a 2018 mid-term turnout. Can’t believe that in 2013 NM won’t be represented by either Bingaman or Domenici and Udall will be the senior Senator!
Just a few minutes ago Martin Heinrich sent out a message on his e-mail list tying himself to his great friend Jeff Bingaman and saying he looks forward to working closely with him for the next two years. Nothing crude or tasteless about any plan to succeed him but I interpret it as an advance on that eventual campaign.
Personally I love the idea of Martin Heinrich in the senate.
Unfortunately the PPP poll give not numbers for this option.
Not good in the sense a good Senator is leaving but I would rather defend this in a Presidential year than a midterm anyhow. Plus Heinrich will make a terrific Senator. Lujan isn’t bad but I still prefer Heinrich. Not sure why people are putting this at tossup, its still leans D in my book. If Wilson is smart she will run for Heinrich’s open seat.
UGH. Yes, It is NM and yes it still leans towards us, and yes if this was going to be open this is the year to do it. All that being said, this still sucks. It will likely suck some money out of the DSCC and will continue the meme of Dems running for the hills.
Every time we get some good news (Lieberman retiring, Murphy running, great Obama numbers) we get some crap news a week or two later (Obama not so good, Bingamann, Webb retiring, etc.)
We just can’t catch a break.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…