Now that Dave’s app has updated data for Virginia, I figured I would see what a map drawn by courts or a commission would look like. I had the basic idea for this map for a while, but now I updated it with the new population estimates to see what the partisanship would look like.
Nova:
Districts:
VA-08:Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, inner Fairfax county
18+Pop: 56W/12B/18H/13A
2008:67O/33M
Avg Dem performance: 66D/35R
Representative: Jim Moran (D)
VA-11: Outer Fairfax county
61W/8B/11H/18A
57O/43M
54D/46R
Representative: Probably Gerry Connolly (D), but Frank Wolf (R) also lives in this district. I suspect Connolly is favored to win, but Wolf has substantial crossover appeal and would definitely have a chance. My initial guess is that Connolly would be the 60% or so favorite. It would almost certainly go D within the next decade, however.
VA-10: Prince William county (except Quantico Marine Corps base), inner Loudoun county
55W/15B/17H/11A
55O/45M (One caveat-many precincts in this district show 3-4K McCain votes but no Obama votes, so Obama total is probably somewhat higher)
49D/51R
Representative: None live in this district. The election for this new district will be a pure tossup.
VA-01: Far NoVA exurbs and the Shenandoah valley
78W/11B/7H
56M/44O
60R/40D
Representative: Unknown, but definitely a Republican
VA-06: Charlottesville area, Southern Shenandoah valley, Appalachian areas, Roanoke area
84W/10B
48O/52M
47D/53R
Representative: Probably Bob Goodlatte (R), however this district has gotten significantly more Democratic so it might be worth it to find a challenger to him. Tom Perriello could do it if he doesn’t run for senate. Also, Creigh Deeds lives in this district. Maybe we’ll see a Representative Creigh Deeds from here soon, something I’m sure SSpers are excited about. Also, Morgan Griffith lives in Salem, which I put in this district because there is no good reason to have Salem and Roanoke in separate districts. I suspect he moves to the 9th, however
VA-09: Southwest VA
90W/6B
59M/41O
44D/56R
Representative: I believe Morgan Griffith (R) would probably move here and win
VA-05: Piedmont area
69W/27B
45O/55M
44D/56R
Representative: Robert Hurt (R) would run here and be even safer than he is now
VA-04: Similar to what it is now, stretches from Chesapeake/VA Beach up to far-flung exurbs of Richmond
65W/25B
47O/53M
45D/55R
Representative: Randy Forbes (R), possibly Scott Rigell (R) depending on where he lives in VA Beach (anybody know?). If they are in a district together, Forbes would probably win the primary because Rigell is a freshman. Regardless, this district was no longer carried by Obama
VA-03: The most African-American parts of the Newport News area
44W/45B
71O/29M
66D/34R
Representative: Unknown, but likely an African-American Democrat. I decided to draw this as the VRA district for this map. Drawing districts more compactly is terrible for minority representation in Virginia, as the best I could do is a plurality-AA district here. African-Americans still make up a majority of the Democratic primary, and the district is safely Democratic so it would probably elect an AA Democrat. Interestingly, Obama significantly overperformed the average Democrat in this district, probably because of high African-American turnout.
VA-07: All the areas inside the Richmond beltway were 50K short of a district, so I added some areas just outside the beltway, regardless it’s basically a Richmond district
57W/31B/6H/5A
62O/34M
57D/43R
Representative: Maybe Bobby Scott (D), Eric Cantor (R) also lives here. Cantor probably couldn’t win this district, but Scott is also probably a bit to the left of this district. I have to give Scott the advantage, but he might have to actually contest a campaign every now and then.
VA-02:Tidewater area
74W/16B
Dave’s app kind of crapped out on me here and gave me -2,000,000 votes for both candidates, so I don’t know what the numbers are, but regardless it’s safe R
Representative: Rob Wittman (R) would probably win this district. Scott Rigell either lives here or in the 4th, but I suspect he loses the primary either way.
So you have 2 Safe D seats (8th, 3rd), 1 Likely D seat (7th), 1 Lean D seat (11th), 1 Tossup seat(10th), 1 Likely R seat (6th), and 5 Safe R seats (1st, 5th, 9th, 4th, 2nd). I could see the split being anywhere from 8R-3D to 6D-5R. Realistically I think the default standing for the parties is 4D-6R, with the 10th a pure tossup.
It breaks apart a VRA district and I don’t care. It’s a community of interest, it’s Democratic, and Bobby Scott will continue to win it.
a lot last night. some towns in virginia had negative a billion mccain voters
He’s held on to his seat because he racks up big margins in the outer counties; he underperforms in the Fairfax part of his district relative to his districtwide total (by about 5% in the past three cycles).
VRA issues and this map shows the affect of VA3 being 56%AA. It has the affect of packing democratic voters in one district.
I did my predictions on an earlier map.
This is a smooth map and thanks for posting it.
so the Richmond seat would go to another Democrat. Getting the Hampton Roads seat up to true majority African-American status is possible, if barely.
From a “fair districts” standpoint, I really dislike that move crossing linking the green district across the Bay Bridge and Tunnel. How much impact would it have to rotate the red, gold, and green district counterclockwise so that all of Virginia Beach is in the red district?
I do like the blue district, though. It’s very inconvenient to current delegation, so it won’t happen. But it probably should, again from a “fair districts” stance.
First, the Democrats have some say and second, Republicans will no doubt have to create a second African-American district in the Richmond area if they want to protect Republican incumbents.
Here’s how I see it going:
1st (Wittman) – Picks up Chincoteague, loses Williamsburg and moves further into Prince William County.
2nd (Forbes/Rigell) – A Forbes vs. Rigell primary is hardly avoidable. The new district will mainly be the non African-American precincts of Chesapeake, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Suffolk, and Virginia Beach.
3rd (Scott) – Loses Richmond and picks up the African-American precincts of the cities listed above.
4th (New Dem) – A new African-American majority district which includes most of Richmond (city), and extends to pick up African-American precincts in Hopewell, Petersburg, Emporia, and stops after picking up Danville.
5th (Hurt) – Loses Danville and Martinsville. Includes only half of Pittsylvania county, including his hometown. Picks up former Cantor territory in the north and continues northward, picking up Culpeper and Winchester. Charlottesville remains, yet the district is now far greater Republican.
6th (Goodlatte) – Very little change, except it now includes all of Roanoke County.
7th (Cantor) – Picks up more precincts in Chesterfield County, along with New Kent, King William, and Williamsburg.
8th (Moran) – Stays largely intact, yet retains only one precinct south of Alexandria, as a means to make Connolly more safe.
9th (Griffith) – No longer picks up precincts in Alleghany or Roanoke counties. Extends further east to pick up Henry and Franklin counties, including Martinsville.
10th (Wolfe) – So much territory must be lost, which is to the benefit of Hurt. Loses Warren, Frederick, and half of Clarke counties. Picks up more Fairfax territory.
11th (Connolly) – Picks up more precincts south of Alexandria, making it more Democratic safe.
**This plan protects all incumbents, except Wolfe, which can hardly get much protection since he lives in Fairfax County. Wolfe will still retain a Republican leaning district by 1 or 2 points. The next weakest Republican district would be in the Virginia Beach-Chesapeake area, yet that would still give the Republican at least a 6 point advantage.
The three-part compromise is simple: two Republican incumbents are forced in a primary (Forbes and Rigell), two are given greater protection (Wittman and Hurt), and another is left to retire on his own terms (Wolfe).
Absent the compromise (a new African-American district), Republicans will be left with four vulnerable incumbents: Hurt, Forbes, Rigell, and Wittman. I am sure Democrats will remind them and Republicans will respond accordingly. Why make four incumbents vulnerable, when it can be withered down to just one?
I mean, 7-4 in a neutral year is what I would consider a fair split, but these aren’t quite the 4 D districts I would draw. (I’m working on a map now that may go up this weekend).
You’re going to have 3 NoVa districts that aren’t safe R (probably 2 D and one lean-R), one of which is minority-majority. If you draw Moran’s district from Alexandria and Arlington north along the Potomac instead of south/inland, you really can’t help but draw a minority-majority district.
Beyond that, I agree there’s probably a Richmond district and a Norfolk/Hampton district for the Democrats, and while it’s possible to pack it into 1, I’m not sure the Republicans want to do so and have lots of 49% Obama districts. They can do 1 50%+ black district and 1 minority-majority district here without too much hassle which should be fine for VRA, and that shores up all their other incumbents. If only Randy Forbes were interested in running for Senate, or if Glenn Nye had hung on to be thrown into a district where he would lose a primary.
The other potential swing district is any one that contains Albemarle (Charlottesville, UVA), but that can pretty easily be cracked into 2 or 3 districts. My understanding is that Republicans are more afraid of a Tom Perriello comeback than conceding another black seat in the southeast, so that’s room for negotiation.
Most of the minority population is Hispanic from Mexico and Central America, a large percentage who cannot vote. The Asian-American population is Indian or from Southeast Asia, a large percentage who can also not vote. African-Americans do not compose such a great population. A new minority majority district would be no guarantee of a minority getting elected. It would also make Connolly weaker and do nothing to improve the already weak status Wolf is in. If Republicans had a choice for a majority minority district, then they would take Richmond over Northern Virginia. It provides greater protection to Republican incumbents.