PA-Sen: Casey Leads By Double Digits

Municipoll for PoliticsPA (PDF) (2/21-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Bob Casey Jr. (D-inc): 50

Rick Santorum (R): 38

Undecided: 12

Bob Casey Jr. (D-inc): 51

Charlie Dent (R): 32

Undecided: 17

Bob Casey Jr. (D-inc): 48

Jim Gerlach (R): 34

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Bob Casey Jr. is one of the Democrats’ lesser worries for 2012, according to one more poll, this one from IVR-based-pollster Municipoll on behalf of news site PoliticsPA. The numbers are quite similar to the Quinnipiac poll a few weeks ago, with Casey sporting a 46/30 favorable here, and leading potential opponents by margins ranging from 12 to 19. (Qpac had him at 44/24 and leading Generic Republican by 10, which is consistent with G.R. usually overperforming specific names by a few points.) Bear in mind that none of these three Republicans seem likely to run… in fact, after a flurry of speculation about potential GOPers in December, I haven’t heard anything in many weeks about who might step up.

If for some reason Rick Santorum gave up his long-shot presidential bid, he’d still find himself pretty unwelcome for a return to the Keystone State, with 39/44 favorables; Charlie Dent and Jim Gerlach’s problem, by contrast, is name rec (they’re at 12/16 and 13/14 respectively). Newly elected GOPers Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey are still enjoying their honeymoons, at 48/31 and 42/35 respectively.

46 thoughts on “PA-Sen: Casey Leads By Double Digits”

  1. Over at RRH, there’s actually sentiment that PA-Sen is a legit toss-up, which I can’t help but find wholly unfathomable. I think Casey outperforms Obama by at least 5 points, and, if Pennsylvania’s Lean D for Obama (as I anticipate), you’re probably looking at an instant double-digit victory for Casey. He’ll ride Obama’s coattails in the Philly suburbs and outperform Obama big time in the SW. Dent and Gerlach are OK, generic Rs, but they may not even bother if the polling’s this bad. Santorum’s dead-set on a presidential run.  

  2. except for Dow 6000 & 15% unemployment.  I would think he would a step or two behind Whitehouse of RI but still quite safe.  

    Yet not alot of love for Casey in this poll.  One would be or likely never will be senate candidate has him under 50%.  These are the type of numbers that get Ron Johnson like candidates testing the waters.  Casey in a blue state just has not locked up this state as of yet.  

  3. I wouldn’t rank him any worse than “Leans D” at this point. Frankly, I think it may be time to place this race in the “Likely D” category. Casey may end up doing better than Obama in PA, and at this point it’s looking increasingly unlikely Obama will lose PA next year.

  4. Unless Obama loses by at least 5 or 6 points in Pennsylvania–which I would put the odds of happening somewhere between slim and none–Casey’s got this in the bag.  

  5. Sup guys? It’s been some time since I posted here (actually, probably just after the election. …I’ve been drinking a lot while saying the name “Speaker Boehner”.)

    On the ground, the senators both seem to be in pretty good shape. Casey and Toomey haven’t really been blasted as much around here, and Casey looks good, while Toomey will be enjoying a bit of a honeymoon for a bit.

    It’s Corbett who’s honeymoon is starting to die down. Corbett has to face a budget battle where he has to either raise taxes or nearly cut all state funding. Sounds as if he’s leaning towards the latter, and state employees already have their sights on him

    They ARE giving him the benefit of the doubt currently, however, in the rural areas that I’m from, thanks to the fact that he’s not Ed Rendell.

    If the district still exists after redistricting, be concerned for Critz.

  6. I honestly don’t see the NRSC making more than a token push here, enought to keep Casey honest (and his money in-state), but not enought to really make Casey sweat (if that were possible).

    It’s not just that PA is such a hard nut for the GOP to crack (and doubly so in a presidential year), but I think Washington GOPers view Casey as great ideological fit for the state and someone they like to do business with. With so many other incumbents to target I just don’t see this making anyone’s top tier list.

    Another thing I’ve heard said of Casey is that he’s more conservative than any Republican who could win in Pennsylvania…this all might change depending on who the GOP nominee for President is and if they think they have a shot to carry the state, but by itself I think Casey is one you keep an eye on, but certainly don’t lose any sleep over.

  7. … at least until an actual breathing body announces.  Likely Dem has to be a lead greater than 10% over entire group of the strongest possible candidates.

    Nothing to see here kids, move along.  And all the more so as Obama is likely to win by more than last time.  No swing state here unless a total dark horse Rep apears from somewhere.

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