The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee just put out its first list of vulnerable incumbents for its “Frontline” program for the 2011-12 cycle:
| District | Incumbent | O/K |
|---|---|---|
| AZ-08 | Gabby Giffords | 46/46 |
| CA-11 | Jerry McNerney | 54/45 |
| IA-03 | Leonard Boswell | 54/50 |
| KY-06 | Ben Chandler | 43/41 |
| MI-09 | Gary Peters | 56/49 |
| MN-01 | Tim Walz | 51/47 |
| MO-03 | Russ Carnahan | 60/57 |
| NC-07 | Mike McIntyre | 47/44 |
| NC-08 | Larry Kissell | 53/45 |
| NY-01 | Tim Bishop | 52/49 |
| NY-23 | Bill Owens | 52/47 |
| OR-05 | Kurt Schrader | 54/49 |
| PA-12 | Mark Critz | 49/51 |
| UT-02 | Jim Matheson | 39/31 |
| VA-11 | Gerry Connolly | 57/49 |
One note: The “O/K” column refers to the share of the vote that Obama and Kerry respectively got in the district. In any event, the vagaries of redistricting obviously make selecting endangered incumbents a difficult enterprise, but there are still some notable names missing on this list. Who else do you think should be on here?
Bishop and Barrow. (of course that also depends on redistricting)
GA-2, especially since we all thought Barrow lost at first on E-day.
IN-2, especially with how much Donnelly is fretting about running for re-election.
KY-3, would’ve though that’s as vulnerable as KY-6.
NC-11, though that may have to do with Shuler’s recent battles with leadership.
Other targeted seats from 2010 that may be worth considering: AZ 7, CA-20, CT-5, OH-13, WI-3.
Donnelly, Shuler, Altmire…maybe Holden
Critz, Carnahan, and Peters will likely be w/o a district…Boswell paired with Latham
The population loss will make Pete Stark’s seat a likely elimination, with Alameda County being divided more compact. Rather McNerney can win a primary against Stark is not clear, but I do think they’ll end up in the same district.
I’m a little surprised of see not:
OH-13 B Sutton
TN-05 J Cooper
GA-02 S Bishop
GA-12 J Barrow
IN-02 J Donnelly
OK-02 D Boren
NC-11 H Shuler
TX-28 H Cuellar
and more from Texas
PA-04 J Almire
Bold emphasized the most surprising. Surely T Holden, C Peterson, N Rahall and M Ross need not.
I think it is a very interesting list of absents… I’m not fan of the majority.
assuming she runs for reelection
Is going to need help come next year. But we don’t know if it’s Holt or Pallone or someone else. The likelihood that all 7 Dems in NJ are safe is very small.
Both have the same issue: Republicans in control of redistricting and lots of safe red territory around these two Democratic(allegedly)-held seats to from which to pull Republican voters.
Braley’s margin of victory in IA-01 (49.5% to 47.5%) was smaller than Boswell’s in IA-03 (50.6% to 46.6%), even though IA-01 is D+5 and IA-03 is D+1. Braley has the advantage of being based in eastern Iowa, where there tend to be more Democrats, and I think he could win a district that adds counties in NE Iowa. However, depending on his new map he could be vulnerable–especially if Latham decides to run against him instead of in the new IA-03.
Redistricting is a bigger risk for Boswell because if they draw the district with mostly counties to the south and west of Des Moines, it will end up having a Republican lean.