Arizona: 4 Majority-Minority districts

In a previous diary, I showed what an Arizona redistricting plan with three majority-minority districts might look like. With the new census data for Arizona, it is actually possible to draw four majority-minority districts in the state.

1st district (blue):

46.1% W, 30.7% H, 19.0% N (18+ population only)

Because of low turnout rates among Native Americans and Hispanics, the electorate here is probably majority-white. But since Flagstaff has a lot of white Democrats, the district is probably pretty swingy. I would guess the PVI is something like R+1 or so, but I’m not sure.

2nd district (green):

82.9% W, 13.7% H

Trent Franks no longer lives in this district, so if this map were actually drawn I would expect him to run for senate. More than 60% of the district’s population now lives outside of Maricopa county, meaning that the state would have two districts not based in Phoenix or Tuscon.

3rd district (purple):

76.7% W, 14.5% H

Ben Quayle and Trent Franks both may or may not live here, but this is probably where both of them would run (assuming Franks doesn’t run for senate). I don’t think Quayle could make it through the primary here, but regardless it’s a safely red district.

4th district (red):

32.5% W, 8.3% B, 52.3% H

The only majority Hispanic district in the state under this map, and also the most Democratic.

5th district (gold):

69.5% W, 16.4% H, 6.6% A

This district mixes liberal Tempe with conservative Gilbert and Chandler. It probably leans republican, but if Democrats wanted to take a majority of the state’s districts this would be their primary target.

6th district (teal):

83.2% W, 10.2% H

David Schweikert would probably be this district’s representative. Ben Quayle may live here but I doubt he beats Schweikert in a primary. Schweikert would be much safer here than in his old district.

7th district (gray):

49.2% W, 40.0% H

A majority of the district’s electorate is probably white, but Tuscon has enough liberal whites that this district would be very Democratic.

8th district (slate blue):

77.2% W, 15.2% H

The demographics of the district are similar to what they were, but the whites in Pinal/Maricopa counties are much more conservative than the whites in Pima county, so it probably gets more Republican.

9th district (light blue):

45.2% W, 6.2% B, 40.9% H

Despite being majority-minority, this district probably leans Republican. It would undoubtedly be very competitive, however.

—-

Interestingly, there are only two really Democratic districts here, just like in the current map. Having four majority-minority districts isn’t exactly a Democratic gerrymander. This plan would certainly be better for Democrats than the current districts, but if I were to approach this from a Democratic standpoint the map would probably be pretty different.