The maps now are the current lines… but supposedly it should be ready later today.
Seems to be too much traffic or something because it’s not loading. And it looks like the site may have actually taken the link down for the State Senate map, perhaps to fix it since it wasn’t loading.
but looking at NOVA the Dems really went to town. My Senate district goes from the Pentagon to Sterling, and is about 2 miles wide and 25 miles long
Says that part of Loudon County was combined with Arlington. This is already shaping up to be a good Dem gerrymander then. If they were willing to do that kind of thing, they can solidify their slight majority.
That’s good news for the rest of you, though. As soon as I leave, the maps are guaranteed to show up.
2 other hilarious gerrymanders
Dave Marsden’s district borders Dulles Airport and Lake Barcroft
George Barker’s goes from Clifton to the City of Alexandria
There is no way either of these maps can sail into law. There is going to be a public outcry against them, and McDonnell has played this like a master chess player. By building up his commission and its criteria, holding the competition, and then getting the state to publish and the media to report on the maps there are ready made alternatives for both houses. Alternatives that don’t require any future commitment to non-partisan redistricting or concessions on the congressional side.
I am starting to think he played both the Democrats and the Republicans for fools.
Here’s Richmond. I will try to have more screens up later.
Senator R Edward Houck (D-Spotsylvania) gets safer by picking up part of Ablemarle county and losing the most GOP friendly areas of his old district. If I’m drawing it right in DRA it is now either 49-50% Obama (old district was 45% Obama).
Phil Puckett (D-Lebanon) gets marginally safer, going from a 39% Obama district to a 41% Obama district. I had wondered if they were going to be aggressive and throw Blacksburg into his district, but I guess they decided not to.
Hampton Roads – the 7th would probably be a swing district. They drew ex-Del. Joe Bouchard into the district, smart move there. John Miller in the 1st gets a much better district; looks like it’s Williamsburg, most of Newport News, and part of James City County.
Richmond – The new 8th would probably be pretty solidly Democratic.
Southside – Roscoe Reynolds got shored up, but the 20th is still a Republican-leaning district. I don’t know why they didn’t try to put some more Democrats in there.
NoVA – The 29th looks surprisingly solid, though I’m still concerned about Jackson Miller (he might not make the jump, though, if he’s concerned about the district’s lean). All the squiggly Fairfax districts make my eyes hurt, but they all look pretty Democratic.
Wow, this is awful.
NoVa – Arlington and Alexandria are packed into two districts. I could see the 26th and 21st fall in a bad year. Houck’s district gets carved up. He could still win there, but it would be tough.
SWVA – Edwards’ district also gets cut up. Blacksburg is put in with some of the border counties (and Salem), while Roanoke is put in with the heavily-Republican suburbs and Botetourt County. Deeds is drawn out of his district.
Southside – Roscoe Reynolds’ district is quite possibly made even more Republican.
Hampton Roads – John Miller is drawn in with Mamie Locke. Ralph Northam is drawn into a district that includes Poquoson and the Republican parts of Hampton.
The Democrats would be lucky to get 15 seats out of that map.
This is going to be painful.
Hampton Roads – Paula Miller is drawn in with Lynwood Lewis. Robin Abbott gets a tougher district; everyone’s saying she’s gone, but I think she could still win there. The 64th is gone when Barlow retires, but that was going to happen anyway.
Southside – Ward Armstrong’s district is gone. Good riddance. The black wards of Lynchburg are put in one of the most Republican districts in the state. Nice.
SWVA – Bud Phillips and Joe Johnson have been drawn in together. Soon, Onzlee Ware and Jim Shuler are going to be the only Democrats left west of Charlottesville. Speaking of which, Albemarle is again carved up to prevent more than one Democrat from being elected there.
Richmond – Not much to say here, looks like they couldn’t draw out any Democrats.
NoVa – It looks like one of the new districts is going to be a battleground; the new 2nd consists of eastern Prince William and northern Stafford. Definitely an Obama district (around 58%), but one where Democrats downballot would likely underperform. Republican freshmen in the 34th, 51st and 67th look to be helped out a bit. I’m not seeing any Democrats drawn out of their districts here, so I guess the Republicans knew to leave well enough alone. New 10th and 87th should be pretty Republican districts.
Overall, it does not look good for the Democrats. I was thinking the numbers would stay pretty much the same, but I’m thinking now the Republicans are on track for around 65 seats, unless the Democrats can pick off any of the NoVa Republicans.
1. The Dems failed to make a strong enough map to keep their majority, and likely made a map so weak they will likely not regain it in the next decade
2. The Democrats also failed to not get a House map to McDonell possibly opening themselves to commission redistricting which could be worse.
3. Republicans managed to submit a map that will likely lock in 70 plus seats in the House, and a map in the senate that locks Democrats down to 15 seats?
The maps now are the current lines… but supposedly it should be ready later today.
Seems to be too much traffic or something because it’s not loading. And it looks like the site may have actually taken the link down for the State Senate map, perhaps to fix it since it wasn’t loading.
That was just evil.
but looking at NOVA the Dems really went to town. My Senate district goes from the Pentagon to Sterling, and is about 2 miles wide and 25 miles long
Says that part of Loudon County was combined with Arlington. This is already shaping up to be a good Dem gerrymander then. If they were willing to do that kind of thing, they can solidify their slight majority.
How about posting some screenshots?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
That’s good news for the rest of you, though. As soon as I leave, the maps are guaranteed to show up.
2 other hilarious gerrymanders
Dave Marsden’s district borders Dulles Airport and Lake Barcroft
George Barker’s goes from Clifton to the City of Alexandria
There is no way either of these maps can sail into law. There is going to be a public outcry against them, and McDonnell has played this like a master chess player. By building up his commission and its criteria, holding the competition, and then getting the state to publish and the media to report on the maps there are ready made alternatives for both houses. Alternatives that don’t require any future commitment to non-partisan redistricting or concessions on the congressional side.
I am starting to think he played both the Democrats and the Republicans for fools.
Here’s Richmond. I will try to have more screens up later.
Senator R Edward Houck (D-Spotsylvania) gets safer by picking up part of Ablemarle county and losing the most GOP friendly areas of his old district. If I’m drawing it right in DRA it is now either 49-50% Obama (old district was 45% Obama).
Phil Puckett (D-Lebanon) gets marginally safer, going from a 39% Obama district to a 41% Obama district. I had wondered if they were going to be aggressive and throw Blacksburg into his district, but I guess they decided not to.
Has plenty of data on the new districts, including a scatterplot of the partisan changes in each district. Great resource.
His map draws Dems into GOP areas and Repubs into Dem areas.
http://www.vpap.org/updates/re…
Hampton Roads – the 7th would probably be a swing district. They drew ex-Del. Joe Bouchard into the district, smart move there. John Miller in the 1st gets a much better district; looks like it’s Williamsburg, most of Newport News, and part of James City County.
Richmond – The new 8th would probably be pretty solidly Democratic.
Southside – Roscoe Reynolds got shored up, but the 20th is still a Republican-leaning district. I don’t know why they didn’t try to put some more Democrats in there.
NoVA – The 29th looks surprisingly solid, though I’m still concerned about Jackson Miller (he might not make the jump, though, if he’s concerned about the district’s lean). All the squiggly Fairfax districts make my eyes hurt, but they all look pretty Democratic.
Wow, this is awful.
NoVa – Arlington and Alexandria are packed into two districts. I could see the 26th and 21st fall in a bad year. Houck’s district gets carved up. He could still win there, but it would be tough.
SWVA – Edwards’ district also gets cut up. Blacksburg is put in with some of the border counties (and Salem), while Roanoke is put in with the heavily-Republican suburbs and Botetourt County. Deeds is drawn out of his district.
Southside – Roscoe Reynolds’ district is quite possibly made even more Republican.
Hampton Roads – John Miller is drawn in with Mamie Locke. Ralph Northam is drawn into a district that includes Poquoson and the Republican parts of Hampton.
The Democrats would be lucky to get 15 seats out of that map.
This is going to be painful.
Hampton Roads – Paula Miller is drawn in with Lynwood Lewis. Robin Abbott gets a tougher district; everyone’s saying she’s gone, but I think she could still win there. The 64th is gone when Barlow retires, but that was going to happen anyway.
Southside – Ward Armstrong’s district is gone. Good riddance. The black wards of Lynchburg are put in one of the most Republican districts in the state. Nice.
SWVA – Bud Phillips and Joe Johnson have been drawn in together. Soon, Onzlee Ware and Jim Shuler are going to be the only Democrats left west of Charlottesville. Speaking of which, Albemarle is again carved up to prevent more than one Democrat from being elected there.
Richmond – Not much to say here, looks like they couldn’t draw out any Democrats.
NoVa – It looks like one of the new districts is going to be a battleground; the new 2nd consists of eastern Prince William and northern Stafford. Definitely an Obama district (around 58%), but one where Democrats downballot would likely underperform. Republican freshmen in the 34th, 51st and 67th look to be helped out a bit. I’m not seeing any Democrats drawn out of their districts here, so I guess the Republicans knew to leave well enough alone. New 10th and 87th should be pretty Republican districts.
Overall, it does not look good for the Democrats. I was thinking the numbers would stay pretty much the same, but I’m thinking now the Republicans are on track for around 65 seats, unless the Democrats can pick off any of the NoVa Republicans.
http://hamptonroads.com/2011/0…
Not numbered, but much quicker than the DLS site.
From what I’m reading it seems…
1. The Dems failed to make a strong enough map to keep their majority, and likely made a map so weak they will likely not regain it in the next decade
2. The Democrats also failed to not get a House map to McDonell possibly opening themselves to commission redistricting which could be worse.
3. Republicans managed to submit a map that will likely lock in 70 plus seats in the House, and a map in the senate that locks Democrats down to 15 seats?
Is this all true?
has the proposed maps on google maps here
I feel like we know, for the most part, what it will look like, but it will be interesting to see the finished product anyway.