Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/24-27, Florida voters, no trendlines):
Q: If you could do last fall’s election for Governor over again, would you vote for Democrat Alex Sink or Republican Rick Scott?
Rick Scott (R-inc): 37
Alex Sink (D): 56
Undecided: 6Q: In the election for Governor last year did you vote for Democrat Alex Sink or Republican Rick Scott, or did you not vote in the election?
Rick Scott (R-inc): 41
Alex Sink (D): 48
Didn’t vote/don’t remember: 11
(MoE: ±4.4%)
We’ve often referred to this sort of poll that PPP’s been churning out lately as an example of buyer’s remorse. But I’m calling it “windowshopper’s remorse” because at least part of this turnaround is due to people who only glanced in the front window of last year’s election but didn’t bother to stop in and make a purchase:
Some of the crosstabs in the “redo” poll point to the Democratic turnout issues that made Scott’s victory possible in the first place though. For instance voters under 30 say they would support Sink by a 67-26 margin if the election was today-but those folks made up only 8% of the electorate in the state last year. If they had turned out in greater numbers Scott would have been in the dustbin of Florida political history four months ago. Turnout from African Americans (who say they would vote for Sink now 85-8) and Hispanics (who say they would vote for Sink 69-28) was also down as a share of the electorate last year from 2008. Democratic voters may be disgusted with Scott as Governor but to some extent they did it to themselves by not showing up to vote in November.
Obviously Scott has fallen far both with people who turned out to vote and those who didn’t – but the final margin was razor-thin, and as Tom says, if only a few of the people who sat on the proverbial sidelines had instead come out last year, we wouldn’t be in quite this mess.
Incidentally, this poll is 41 D, 37 R and 22 I, but that Dem margin is basically the same as the three-point D lead in the 2008 exit polls (the number of indies is just lower). I don’t think this poll is too Dem by any stretch, given that on the “2008 vote” question, respondents said they supported McCain by a 49-47 margin. (Obama, of course, won the state by three.)
to allow the opposition party to make a comeback.
the disappearing voter. They have fled Florida for places unknown. If you reduce by number of GOP & Democrats types in this poll by a net 7% (plus divide that reduction equally between the parties)to account for this change in polling pools. What happens? The results change by 5% or so. Naturally the poll has younger and more liberal voters then in Nov 2010.
To me this Jensen polling magic. His polls have more democrats then 2008 and there are are liberal. It guess more or less. I might add he has his standard disclaimer that he cannot quantify the margin of error that hangups and refusal to poll have on his poll.
I can’t recall seeing polling from Jensen in March 2007 so this guess on party ID in his poll seems to be based on a hunch as opposed to polling expirence. Put me down as skeptical.
Findings like these are why Democrats should temper their enthusiasm over the new census numbers that show this country’s hispanic population growing. The demographic groups that make up the Republican Party’s base are FAR more reliable voters than those who make up the Democratic party’s base. Say what you want about Republicans, but you can count on them to vote. Democrats need to be cajoled a lot harder to go vote.
Even if the hispanic population is growing in size, it won’t matter unless a) it is eligible to vote and b) it actually casts votes.
with our GOP state legislature and DFL governor, things are going to take awhile to solve but it’s going to be an all-around shit show where everyone either looks bad or everyone looks like they compromised and came up with a solution for the state. When it comes to fixing the economy right now, it really is damned if you damned if you don’t. The Dems get attacked for growing the deficit and being big spenders, the GOP are going to get hit for kicking the elderly off their health insurance and cutting education spending.
Would Sink really look that great when proposing her own cuts and tax raises? With a GOP state legislature, yeah, because she has final say and has an easier path to making herself look like the grown-up in the room. With a Dem legislature where they’d probably want to raise taxes as the main way to fix the budget, probably not. Everyone has to make decisions that look bad because the economy sucks and it’s the only thing to do, and divided government offers the balance between the two extremes of fixing budgets and economies. And the media certainly doesn’t help with their striving to be moderate. I read my paper and they attack Dayton for wanting to raise taxes and they attack the GOP for wanting to cut spending, well then what the hell do you want to happen?
This poll shows PPP’s strength.
Like all polls, the topline doesn’t really matter. What matters is the composition of the sample. What we get here from PPP is a few things…
First, the sample is not the same as the 2010 electorate. That’s neither good nor bad. It just is was it is.
Second, if an election was held today, and this was the turnout, Scott would lose. Whethere turnout would be like that or not isn’t important. It just shows what would be if it would be.
Third, Scott has less support among people who didn’t vote in 2010 than those who did.
Fourth, no matter what, this sample shows that among those who did vote in 2010, Scott loses support. If the subsample of people who did vote in 2010 voted then the way they think now, Sink would have won.
That fourth one is the key point. Whatever occurs in the next election will be the result of turnout, and the actions of the independent-ish voters who do change loyalties.
PPP’s strength is getting people to answer questions basically relaibly, and in disclosing a great deal of information about their samples. Sometimes their samples are right on, sometimes they a not. In either case though, they allow you to look under the hood and adjust the numbers yourself — either because you think they are wrong, or as a way to run various “what if” scenarios.
The bottom line here is no matter how you slice it, Scott has lost support.
I wonder how much of Scott’s unpopularity has to to with overreach and how much has to do with the fact that any governor would have to make painful and unpopular decisions to resolve Florida’s budget problems. Sure, I think Sink would have been a better choice, but surely whatever Sink would have done to get the budget in line would have hurt in the polls as well. I just don’t know what the difference in the numbers would be.