Everyone was aghast at the proposed map that came out of one of the houses of the Arkansas legislature recently. The consensus seemed to be that it was a dummymander, as likely to end up with a 4-0 Republican delegation as it was a 3-1 Democratic delegation. I would argue that 2-2 split would be the safest, and sanest, way to draw the map. So I’ve come up with a few maps that would likely give that split.
Map 1: A Bipartisan Compromise
AR-01 (blue) – 65 McCain, 32 Obama
AR-02 (green) – 51 McCain, 48 Obama.
AR-03 (purple) – 64 McCain, 34 Obama.
AR-04 (red) – 56 McCain, 41 Obama.
In this map, AR-01 is ceded to the Republicans, AR-02 is made more of a swing district, AR-03 remains pretty much the same, and AR-04 is made slightly more Democratic.
The problem with this one is that AR-04 remains vulnerable. With Ross exiting the seat in 2014 to run for Governor, it would be a tough seat to hold. On the other hand, AR-02 becomes easier to pick up.
Map 2: Let’s Make the White Democrats Unhappy
This map includes the Fayetteville tentacle from the proposed map. AR-02 is redrawn into a black-heavy Mississippi+Little Rock district. I don’t have numbers on this one handy, unfortunately, but AR-02 easily becomes an Obama district, probably around 55-44 Obama. AR-04 moves slightly to the Democrats, I’d guess it’s about 57-41 McCain.
This would please the black Democrats in the legislature; they’ve been pushing for a district that gives them a shot of electing one of their own to Congress. Of course, the white Democrats would not be happy with this arrangement, as many of them would be shut out of the chance to go to Congress.
Map 3: Let’s Make the Black Democrats Unhappy
AR-01 (blue) – 53 McCain, 45 Obama
AR-02 (green) – 66 McCain, 32 Obama
AR-03 (purple) – 64 McCain, 34 Obama
AR-04 (red) – 53 McCain, 45 Obama
Third and finally is a map designed to elect two Blue Dog type Democrats. In this map, Little Rock is added to Mike Ross’s district (putting Griffin in with him, but Griffin could just move to the safe Republican AR-02), while AR-01 is reconfigured by shedding some of the Crawford-friendly counties to the north and adding some Dem-friendly counties to the south. Ross would probably not be happy with Little Rock in his district, but he’s only got one more primary to get through until he can go run for Governor and be out of our hair. The advantage here is an open AR-04 would not be an almost-automatic flip to the Republicans; the Democrats would have a good shot at retaining the seat.
Now, as the white Democrats got the shaft in the last map, this map gives it to the black Democrats. AR-01’s VAP is only 28% black, and AR-04’s is 23% black, which would make it tough for one of the black legislators to win a primary in either district.
So there you go, three ideas, all of which are, in my opinion, better than the one proposed by the actual legislators.
I, at least, don’t have much confidence in the ability of Arkansas Dems to retake either AR-1 or AR-2, if they are both kept close to their current partisan composition, as has been proposed.
and great comments. Thanks for Posting.
The so called “Pigtail map” looks to be grinding to a halt in AR. Fayetteville legislators are catching heck from this plan. Here’s the gist of it with the number of votes added to each district from the 2008 results.
1st district roughly more then 1700D under this map
2nd district is roughly more 1000 votes more D under this map
4th district is roughly 2300 more D
3rd district is about 5000 votes more R
These districts had 250,000 votes in them in 2008. The Pigtail map moves less then 1% in each district. Plus the two freshman get less help then Mike Ross and he’s a 5 term incumbent. What gives? This is a mighty wimpy move IMO. I think the three GOP incumbents can win under this map and if Ross runs for Gov in 2014 that seat could easily go GOP.
The Democrats need to man up and go with one of your maps if they want to be effective.
Rather or not Democrats from Fayetteville will vote for the move to the 4th is not known, so the legislature might pass an alternative map that is 2-2.
is the perceived Democratic candidate for 2014 gubernatorial race.
Does Arkansas throw us off so much because of how badly Obama brings down the Dem brand there? As compared to if another Dem was President and white?
Because I wonder if the PVI numbers are not the best measure for the present environment. Like on the state side Mike Beebe is very popular and didn’t have to even try to get reelected, perhaps the state dems and national dems have a sharp divide?
But I really think something like Map #3 is what should be done. Obama greatly underperforms generic-D in this state, at least for now. I think making Ross’s seat winnable for a Democrat in 2014 is important, as is making a second district that has good odds at going to team blue. The three-seat map just screams dummymander, but trying your best to get 2 Dem seats, like in map #3 is what the ARDP should do.
Democrats are screwed in the south for obvious racial reasons. These stupid, blue-dog, conserva-dems are ensuring their own destruction. This map is a complete dummymander that will ensure a 4-0 republican map. Who the hell cares about Mike Ross; he is going to retire in 2014 to run for governor, why does he have any say at all? They could have combined Little Rock, Jefferson county, and the delta to create a liberal district to ensure 1 member in the delegation. Now they will have none. The best chance liberals have now is for the black caucus to work with republicans to draw a 1D to 3R map. I cannot believe that I am hoping for republicans to save the democrats from themselves. FML!