[Ed. note: This is impressive work. I took the liberty of moving the list of demographic & political info into a table. – David]
There was a request for the .drf file that I created for the Howell proposal of the VA State Senate, so why not make a diary.
For the .drf file, click here.
Caution: the Howell plan splits precincts, which I don’t think Dave’s App allows for. On some districts, it’s a judgement call, like on the borders of the 15th & 20th districts or the 7th & 14th districts. The non-ability to split precincts is also why districts will have the variances in population.
And yes, the numbers correspond to the Howell numbers, i.e. District 1 below is District 1 in the Howell plan.
Data table below the fold.
| District | Obama | McCain | White | Black | Hisp. | Asian | W VAP | B VAP | H VAP | A VAP | 2000-09 D | 2000-09 R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 42% | 55% | 31% | 8% | 3% | 59% | 29% | 7% | 4% | 52% | 48% |
| 2 | 70% | 30% | 38% | 51% | 5% | 3% | 41% | 50% | 4% | 3% | 65% | 35% |
| 3 | 38% | 62% | 81% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 82% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 39% | 62% |
| 4 | 39% | 61% | 77% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 78% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 38% | 62% |
| 5 | 74% | 26% | 35% | 55% | 5% | 3% | 38% | 53% | 5% | 3% | 69% | 32% |
| 6 | 57% | 43% | 60% | 26% | 8% | 3% | 62% | 25% | 7% | 3% | 54% | 46% |
| 7 | 52% | 48% | 55% | 28% | 8% | 7% | 59% | 24% | 7% | 7% | 52% | 48% |
| 8 | 63% | 37% | 53% | 30% | 10% | 5% | 57% | 28% | 9% | 5% | 56% | 44% |
| 9 | 75% | 25% | 38% | 55% | 3% | 2% | 41% | 52% | 2% | 2% | 71% | 29% |
| 10 | 39% | 61% | 76% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 78% | 16% | 3% | 3% | 37% | 63% |
| 11 | 42% | 58% | 68% | 25% | 4% | 1% | 70% | 25% | 3% | 1% | 40% | 60% |
| 12 | 41% | 59% | 77% | 11% | 4% | 7% | 78% | 11% | 3% | 6% | 39% | 61% |
| 13 | 43% | 57% | 66% | 21% | 4% | 6% | 68% | 21% | 4% | 6% | 43% | 57% |
| 14 | 37% | 63% | 81% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 83% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 38% | 62% |
| 15 | 37% | 64% | 74% | 22% | 2% | 1% | 76% | 21% | 2% | 1% | 37% | 63% |
| 16 | 72% | 29% | 35% | 53% | 8% | 2% | 38% | 52% | 7% | 2% | 64% | 37% |
| 17 | 51% | 49% | 70% | 17% | 8% | 2% | 72% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 47% | 53% |
| 18 | 64% | 36% | 42% | 52% | 3% | 1% | 44% | 51% | 2% | 1% | 61% | 39% |
| 19 | 37% | 63% | 91% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 92% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 39% | 61% |
| 20 | 49% | 51% | 66% | 28% | 4% | 1% | 69% | 27% | 3% | 0 | 49% | 52% |
| 21 | 57% | 43% | 73% | 16% | 4% | 4% | 76% | 15% | 4% | 4% | 55% | 45% |
| 22 | 51% | 49% | 65% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 67% | 9% | 9% | 13% | 46% | 54% |
| 23 | 37% | 63% | 80% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 82% | 14% | 2% | 1% | 39% | 61% |
| 24 | 36% | 64% | 88% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 89% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 35% | 66% |
| 25 | 58% | 43% | 81% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 82% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 56% | 44% |
| 26 | 41% | 59% | 86% | 3% | 7% | 1% | 88% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 38% | 63% |
| 27 | 43% | 57% | 83% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 85% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 40% | 60% |
| 28 | 44% | 56% | 71% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 73% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 41% | 59% |
| 29 | 61% | 39% | 41% | 20% | 28% | 7% | 45% | 20% | 25% | 8% | 52% | 48% |
| 30 | 66% | 34% | 62% | 13% | 16% | 6% | 64% | 12% | 14% | 7% | 64% | 36% |
| 31 | 62% | 39% | 68% | 5% | 12% | 12% | 69% | 5% | 11% | 12% | 60% | 40% |
| 32 | 61% | 39% | 68% | 5% | 9% | 14% | 71% | 5% | 8% | 14% | 59% | 41% |
| 33 | 59% | 41% | 48% | 9% | 20% | 20% | 51% | 9% | 19% | 19% | 52% | 48% |
| 34 | 57% | 43% | 61% | 5% | 11% | 19% | 63% | 5% | 10% | 19% | 54% | 46% |
| 35 | 66% | 34% | 42% | 12% | 26% | 16% | 45% | 12% | 25% | 16% | 63% | 37% |
| 36 | 64% | 36% | 42% | 25% | 22% | 8% | 46% | 24% | 20% | 8% | 59% | 41% |
| 37 | 57% | 43% | 52% | 7% | 15% | 23% | 54% | 7% | 14% | 23% | 52% | 48% |
| 38 | 41% | 59% | 94% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 94% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 47% | 53% |
| 39 | 59% | 41% | 54% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 57% | 16% | 12% | 13% | 54% | 46% |
| 40 | 33% | 67% | 95% | 2% | 1% | 0 | 95% | 2% | 1% | 0 | 38% | 62% |
Under the Howell lines:
21 Senate districts voted for Obama and have a history of voting Democratic
2 Senate districts voted for Obama but have a history of voting Republican
17 Senate districts voted for McCain and have a history of voting Republican
Too bad all of the free download sites are scuzzy, but this seemed to work.
Thanks.
As a side note, would you be okay with me posting this over at Blue Virginia? I assume you don’t have an account there and I believe you have to wait a week after creating an account there to post a diary. Given that some people there seemed to think that this proposal is somehow a bad map for Dems, I feel that having these numbers which show that it clearly isn’t would be helpful. I’d give you credit, of course.
Of the 17 districts that voted for McCain there are two Democratic Senators. In the 38th is Senator Puckett, and there’s almost no way to fix that. In the 20th is Senator Reynolds, who should be fine in his district now. But it’s regrettable that they didn’t make it more Democratic, but district would be a toss up in an open seat.
There is one Democrat in the Obama-Republican districts, Senator Houck in the 17th. It’s more Democratic and contains a lot of areas that should be growing rapidly in the next decade, between Fredickbsburg, Albemarle, and the area around Lake Anna in between. This is actually one seat I’m worried about.
The other Obama-Republican district is the new 22nd, an open seat in Northern Virginia that is one of the Obama-Republican districts. It should be competitive throughout the decade. A win here would be a pickup for the Democrats.
There are two Obama-Democratic districts with significant chances, the new 8th in Richmond and the redrawn 7th in Virginia Beach. Both voted for Obama and have a history of voting Democratic. They would be a pickup for the Democrats.
Among the other Obama-Democratic seats I notice that Chuck Colgan’s seat, the 29th, is significantly shored up and could be kept when he retires.
On paper this could allow for three more pickups for the Democrats, for a total of 25 assuming Reynolds and Puckett win reelection. Puckett’s seat is a lost cause probably when he retires, but we could keep Reynold’s seat and stay at 24. Assuming we can protect everything else.
If I had to pick areas for long term trends, once growth continues, I’d be hard pressed. Maybe the 11th, but I don’t think it’s trending Democratic and it’s size would make it difficult for a challenger. Maybe the 12th, especially with growth around Fluvanna and its fickle swing vote. Maybe the 13th, but it shouldn’t be trending Democratic. Maybe the 26th with an open seat and the right candidate? Maybe the 27th and 28th with growth?
The 8th and 22nd were eliminated and moved elsewhere. I put the current incumbents, but several have been moved around. Wagner and McWaters (and possibly Blevins) are in the 14th district. Smith and Newman are both in the 23rd. Wagner is threatening to move to Newport News to run in the 1st against Miller, while Smith has said he’d move to the 21st to challenge Edwards.
So how does the Watkins proposal add up? Again, caution because precincts have been split.
1
48% Obama/52% McCain
64% White, 21% Black, 7% Hispanic, 5% Asian
VAP 67% White, 20% Black, 6% Hispanic, 6% Asian
2000-2009 46% Dem/54% Rep
2
45% Obama/55% McCain
72% White, 14% Black, 7% Hispanic, 4% Asian
VAP 75% White, 14% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian
2000-2009 43% Dem/57% Rep
3
45% Obama/55% McCain
63% White, 22% Black, 6% Hispanic, 6% Asian
VAP 65% White, 22% Black, 5% Hispanic, 6% Asian
2000-2009 43% Dem/57% Rep
4
70% Obama/30% McCain
36% White, 58% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 38% White, 57% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 67% Dem/34% Rep
5
79% Obama/21% McCain
35% White, 53% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 39% White, 50% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 74% Dem/37% Rep
6
48% Obama/52% McCain
65% White, 22% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian
VAP 68% White, 21% Black, 5% Hispanic, 4% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 46% Dem/54% Rep
7
74% Obama/27% McCain
34% White, 54% Black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 37% White, 52% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 68% Dem/32% Rep
8
43% Obama/57% McCain
67% White, 26% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 70% White, 25% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 42% Dem/58% Rep
9
46% Obama/54% McCain
72% White, 17% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 74% White, 16% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 44% Dem/56% Rep
10
78% Obama/22% McCain
33% White, 59% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 37% White, 56% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 74% Dem/26% Rep
11
77% Obama/23% McCain
30% White, 57% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 32% White, 56% Black, 9% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 70% Dem/30% Rep
12
44% Obama/56% McCain
66% White, 22% Black, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 69% White, 21% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 40% Dem/60% Rep
13
48% Obama/52% McCain
64% White, 32% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 65% White, 31% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 45% Dem/55% Rep
14
43% Obama/57% McCain
81% White, 12% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 82% White, 12% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 41% Dem/59% Rep
15
45% Obama/55% McCain
70% White, 12% Black, 6% Hispanic, 10% Asian
VAP 72% White, 12% Black, 5% Hispanic, 9% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 41% Dem/59% Rep
16
38% Obama/62% McCain
79% White, 16% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 79% White, 16% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 37% Dem/63% Rep
17
46% Obama/54% McCain
69% White, 19% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 71% White, 19% Black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 43% Dem/57% Rep
18
49% Obama/51% McCain
67% White, 18% Black, 9% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 70% White, 18% Black, 8% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 45% Dem/55% Rep
19
51% Obama/49% McCain
55% White, 12% Black, 22% Hispanic, 8% Asian
VAP 58% White, 12% Black, 20% Hispanic, 8% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 45% Dem/55% Rep
20
63% Obama/37% McCain
40% White, 25% Black, 23% Hispanic, 7% Asian
VAP 44% White, 25% Black, 21% Hispanic, 8% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 56% Dem/44% Rep
21
55% Obama/45% McCain
60% White, 6% Black, 13% Hispanic, 18% Asian
VAP 62% White, 6% Black, 12% Hispanic, 18% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 51% Dem/49% Rep
22
63% Obama/37% McCain
49% White, 18% Black, 18% Hispanic, 11% Asian
VAP 52% White, 18% Black, 17% Hispanic, 11% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 59% Dem/41% Rep
23
69% Obama/31% McCain
49% White, 19% Black, 19% Hispanic, 11% Asian
VAP 52% White, 18% Black, 17% Hispanic, 11% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 67% Dem/33% Rep
24
69% Obama/31% McCain
64% White, 8% Black, 15% Hispanic, 10% Asian
VAP 66% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic, 10% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 69% Dem/31% McCain
25
63% Obama/37% McCain
50% White, 6% Black, 22% Hispanic, 18% Asian
VAP 52% White, 6% Black, 20% Hispanic, 19% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 61% Dem/39% Rep
26
57% Obama/43% McCain
60% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic, 19% Asian
VAP 63% White, 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 19% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 54% Dem/46% Rep
27
59% Obama/41% McCain
60% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic, 19% Asian
VAP 63% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic, 19% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 56% Dem/44% Rep
28
55% Obama/45% McCain
59% White, 8% Black, 16% Hispanic, 14% Asian
VAP 61% White, 8% Black, 15% Hispanic, 14% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 49% Dem/51% Rep
29
50% Obama/50% McCain (49.9% Obama/50.1% McCain)
66% White, 6% Black, 9% Hispanic, 16% Asian
VAP 68% White, 6% Black, 8% Hispanic, 16% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 45% Dem/55% Rep
30
42% Obama/58% McCain
83% White, 6% Black, 7% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 85% White, 6% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 40% Dem/60% Rep
31
42% Obama/58% McCain
83% White, 5% Black, 8% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 86% White, 5% Black, 7% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 38% Dem/63% Rep
32
37% Obama/64% McCain
89% White, 6% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 90% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 35% Dem/65% Rep
33
59% Obama/41% McCain
75% White, 14% Black, 5% Hispanic, 4% Asian
VAP 77% White, 13% Black, 45 Hispanic, 4% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 56% Dem/44% Rep
34
47% Obama/53% McCain
87% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 88% White, 5% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 48% Dem/52% Rep
35
47% Obama/53% McCain
76% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 79% White, 15% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 46% Dem/54% Rep
36
37% Obama/63% McCain
77% White, 17% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 79% White, 16% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 38% Dem/62% Rep
37
41% Obama/59% McCain
73% White, 23% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 75% White, 22% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 41% Dem/59% Rep
38
41% Obama/59% McCain
84% White, 11% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 85% White, 11% Black, 3% Hispanic
Avg. 2000-2009 43% Dem/57% Rep
39
40% Obama/60% McCain
94% White, 3% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 95% White, 3% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 45% Dem/55% Rep
40
34% Obama/66% McCain
94% White, 3% Black, 1% Hispanic
VAP 95% White, 3% Black, 1% Hispanic
Avg. 2000-2009 39% Dem/61% Rep
Under the Watkins proposal:
15 districts voted for Obama and have a history of voting Democratic
1 district voted for Obama and has a history of voting Republican
24 districts voted for McCain and have a history of voting Republican
but here are the biggest two:
My 20th SD:
55% Obama, 45% McCain
53% Average Dem, 47% Average Rep
My 7th:
59% Obama, 41% McCain
53.6% Average Dem, 46.4% Average Republican.
No other Democrat needed to be weakened.
They’ve posted an updated map on the DLS site. It doesn’t look like much has changed; they swapped precincts between the 7th and 14th to put Frank Wagner into the 7th, and they moved most of the Northern Neck into the 4th.