SSP Daily Digest: 4/4 (part deux)


CA-36: Janice Hahn took 57% of the vote at a Democratic Party caucus on Saturday, just shy of the 60% necessary to win the party’s formal endorsement. Debra Bowen scored 39%, while Marcy Winograd took 2%. Hahn did score the backing of the California Labor Federation, a large labor umbrella organization.

On the campaign trail, Hahn has now started emphasizing that she’s a lifelong Democrat, alluding to the fact that Bowen was a Republican until 1984. A spokesperson shot back: “Yes it’s true, Debra Bowen has only been a Democrat for nearly 30 years.” I’m not sure this line of attack is going to work.

FL-14 (?): The question mark is our new way of indicating we aren’t really sure what district we’re talking about – and it’s not because we’re clueless morans. Rather, with redistricting afoot, we sort of have a Schrödinger’s Seat problem in many states. Case in point: Lee County Commissioner Tammy Hall (R) just created an exploratory committee for the 14th CD… but that, of course, is Rep. Connie Mack’s district. Hall says she has no intention of primarying him, but that she just wants to get ready because she thinks a new seat will get created in her area. (I’ll also point out that in his “I’m not running for Senate” announcement, I don’t think Mack actually said he was running for re-election, so maybe his seat could open up, too.)

FL-19 (?): Hmm, maybe this question mark thing is going to get old very fast. Ultra-right-wing radio nutcase Joyce Kaufman (“If ballots don’t work, bullets will,” she said at a teabagger rally) says she won’t rule out a run for Congress, though she sounds very dubious on the idea. (She was a barker for Allen West and very briefly was anointed as his Chief of Staff, before that idea completely blew up.) She currently lives in Rep. Ted Deutch’s very blue district, so she’d have to get very lucky with redistricting to have any kind of chance.

IA-02: No real surprise: Rep. Dave Loebsack says he’d like to represent the new 2nd CD in the map just put forth by the state’s independent redistricting commission. The new version of this southeast Iowa district contains a bunch of the same territory as the old IA-02, except for Loebsack’s home – though he’s not far outside the border. (He hasn’t said whether he’d move, though he probably wouldn’t have to.) Also of note, Christie Vilsack lives in the new 2nd, though she hasn’t commented yet. Bruce Braley says he’ll stay in the 1st, but his 2010 opponent, Ben Lange, might move into the 2nd.

In related news, Brian Kennedy, a former state GOP chair, thinks that this won’t be the final congressional map (the legislature can send the commission back to the drawing board), in part because the state House and Senate maps also throw a bunch of incumbents together. But columnist Kathie Obradovich thinks that lawmakers might be inclined toward this set of maps because the next batch could be a lot worse. In fact, in 2001, 50 members of the House and 20 senators were placed in districts with fellow incumbents, while only 27 and 14, respectively, are now. So

MI-09 (?): This comes as little surprise (see SSP Amazing Digest #328), but Marty McFly Knollenberg plans to travel back in time form an exploratory committee to undo avenge his father’s loss to Rep. Gary Peters in 2008.

NM-01: We’re off to the races! Dem Rep. Antonio “Moe” Maestas says he’s thinking about running for Rep. Martin Heinrich’s now-open seat. (State Sen. Eric Griego (D) announced an exploratory committee last Friday, just before Heinrich declared for Senate.) Also over the weekend, Albuquerque Councilor Dan Lewis became the first Republican to formally join the race. Former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) has already filed an exploratory committee.

NY-14: LOL – Reshma Saujani, who tried to convinced voters she was a better Democrat than Rep. Carolyn Maloney, is now a member of the deeply lame “non-partisan” group “No Labels.” Good luck ever trying to win a primary in this town again.

NY-26: It’s official: Thanks to screwing up his own paperwork, teabagger David Bellavia is off the ballot… and the Federalist Party sleeps for another 200 years.

TN-09: Another member of the extended Ford clan says he’s thinking about challenging Rep. Steve Cohen: Twenty-five-year-old Justin Ford (a cousin of Harold Jr.), who was just elected Shelby County Commissioner last year. Jackson Baker of the Memphis Flyer notes that this would be the 4th Ford to face off against Cohen: Harold Jr. (1996), Joe Jr. (2006), and Jake (also 2006). Baker also reminds readers that Harold Ford, Sr. endorsed Cohen last year, which probably means that Justin is just goofing around trying to get his name rec up a bit. (I mean, he conducted this interview while on an elliptical trainer, almost a scene out of Law & Order.)

Other Races:

NYC-Mayor: Marist took another early look at the Dem primary for mayor in my hometown. They forgot to poll DavidNYC, so take this one with a grain of salt:

Anthony Weiner (D): 18 (21)

William Thompson (D): 15 (16)

John Liu (D): 13 (10)

Christine Quinn (D): 13 (9)

Bill De Blasio (D): 9 (8)

Scott Stringer (D): 4 (4)

Undecided: 27 (32)

(MoE: ±5%)

I will also take this opportunity to remind folks about Bill De Blasio’s views on Wall Street.

OH Referendum: Gov. John Kasich signed the anti-union bill known as SB5 into law late last week, triggering a 90-day period for opponents to gather some 231,000 signatures to put the measure on the ballot for voter approval (or disapproval) this November. I’ll note that in 1958, in an uncannily similar situation, a “right-to-work” law was also placed on the ballot in Ohio (354K signatures were required)  –  and got destroyed, 63-37. Let’s hope history repeats.

Redistricting Roundup:

California: Anyone here from the Great Bear Republic? Anyone a redistricting nerd? Well now the next five months of your social calendar are set: CA’s redistricting commission is hosting public hearings, starting this week in Sacramento and going all the way through August. Have fun!

Illinois: There are so, so many great maps produced on this site every week that I hesitate to call special attention to any one of them. (I love all my gerrymandered children equally!) But I think you’ll agree that silver spring’s proposed 14 D, 4 R plan for Illinois is such a wickedly brilliant work of art and science that it deserves a shout-out. If you know anyone in the IL lege, please pass this diary on to them!

Louisiana: The state House and Senate are both taking up federal maps today, with the House considering three different plans while the Senate has settled on just one. These maps have all passed out of committee, so each full body could potentially vote today. However, differences will still need to be ironed out between the Senate plan (assuming it passes) and whichever map the House chooses. The second link contains the greatest detail, including some actual maps and some alternate options that were voted down.

Missouri: The state Senate apparently passed its version of a new congressional redistricting plan, and it’s reportedly similar to the House’s map that we saw last week, but I haven’t been able to find the actual map yet. Let us know if you see it in comments.

North Carolina: Interesting: Rep. Mike McIntyre is reaching out to his constituents, asking them rhetorically if they want their “next Congressman to be from Raleigh, Goldsboro, or Charlotte?” McIntyre wants his southeastern district kept intact, so he’s asking supporters to tell members of the state legislature that they want the same thing. I’ll be curious to see if other members of Congress try this same tactic.

127 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 4/4 (part deux)”

  1. had a chance to check out what NBC is showing for their 2012 “Battleground” map? They’re a joke whoever put it together. They place IL, CA, CT in “likely Democrat” and put AL, LA, MS and AR only in “likely Republican.” They’re turning out to be a joke.  

    1. Personally, I’d prefer Bowen to Hahn, who has always struck me as an in-it-for-herself type of politician. Plus, I think political dynasties are as un-American as a landed aristocracy (Hahn’s father was a powerful county supervisor and her brother was LA Mayor). That said, Gov. Brown would get to appoint Bowen’s replacement, no? And the odds of Republicans winning a low-profile statewide office versus a competent technocrat with a D by their name….un-friggin-likely.

      I totally agree with your second point, however. Bowen is a statewide officer and to drop down now for a district that is among the likeliest to be totally dismantled seems silly. Of course, what she’s trying to do is to basically call “seat saved” in the inevitable reshuffling that SoCal Democrats are going to go through once the redistricting commission explodes the status quo (hopefully?).

    2. It will take on the Palos Verdes Peninsula, but maintain most of the same territory it has now, with very little change in partisan numbers.

      Gov. Brown would appoint Bowen’s replacement and it would be no doubt someone capable of handling the job right.

  2. While I was cleaning out the barn, I was thinking about all the targets of derision that the 2010 cycle gave us, which did indeed lead to the thought “I wonder what Reshma Saujani is up to, nowadays”. I’m not sure if I would’ve thought that without the stimulus that cleaning out a poultry barn provides, you know?  

    1. He’s a loudmouth know-it-all, but in NYC, that’s a sign he’s a hometown boy and I don’t think it could hurt him that much, if at all. Being Jewish, being pals with Jon Stewart and ripping various Fox talking heads to shreds isn’t going to hurt him, either.

      And I agree, I’m not sure “gaffe” would be the right word for any of his past actions. We may be operating under different ideas of what a gaffe is and whether or not some of his past actions were such, but I’m with HoosierD42 on this one… can’t think of a single Weiner gaffe that would hurt him significantly among the NYC electorate.

  3. You’d have four white liberals vs. one Asian (who isn’t very popular) vs. one African-American (who’s actually well-liked among white liberals, too). Unless Thompson failed to clear the 40% run-off mark, I think he’d rather easily win the nomination…and lose to Ray Kelly in the general. I think Weiner’s too divisive to even win a Dem primary here. Quinn’s beloved by the gay community and has Ed Koch behind her. De Blasio and Stringer are complete non-starters.

  4. No doubt her parents were Republicans and a lot of children follow their parents in party labels. She may not have even had a chance to vote Republican, it’s not like she was that far over the voting age.

  5. Weiner would be a great mayor. Out of the 4 white liberals in the poll I think he would have the best chance to differentiate himself from the pack. I also think he would have the best shot against Ray Kelly in the general.  

    1. Not my taste, either. And if getting outed on film counted, Outrage star David Dreier would be marching openly in moderate pride parades by this point.

  6. but doing an interview on an elliptical is as epic as it is beneficial to the cardiovascular system.  

    1. I have 2 kids, it’s one of the things I worry about, being around for them, since my dad and my sister both died before their time because of health problems.

      So it’s chilling for me when a dad dies with children.  It’s just awful.

  7. We have so much mayhem in the North Las Vegas and Henderson council races with cross party endorsements, council members and candidates in foreclosure, allegations of physical abuse, and union warfare. Oh, and did I mention Las Vegas has a mayoral election? 😉

  8. And if you aren’t from Wisconsin but know people who live there, remind them!

    Get rid of Republican legislature leader and current supreme court judge David Prosser!  Vote for Joanne Kloppenberg!

  9. Peters-Levin is the natural match-up for redistricting, as only McCotter of the other seats would be easy to eliminate and there’s not much benefit to the Republicans in doing that.

    But if they do that, the Peters-Levin district is going to be as blue as they can make it, because McCotter and Rogers don’t want to have to pick up areas like Pontiac or Royal Oak.

    Which will make the replacement for the 9th utterly unwinnable for a Republican.

    But if Knollenberg thinks it’s worth staffing up for a run, that suggests he reckons the 9th will be preserved and kept winnable. Which suggests that McCotter and possibly Miller are going to find themselves absorbing a lot of blue territory.

    Does Knollenberg have the juice in the State House to get the rest of the redistricting committee to help him screw over the head of the House Republican Policy Committee?

  10. For two reasons

    1.I love Debra Bowen too much and want her to stay as our Secretary of State.

    (I saw what happened in Ohio where we had a bomb ass Secretary of state who left an open seat for Republicans to gobble up, I honestly felt we could have held it with her, yes yes I know CA is MUCH bluer than Ohio it still doesn’t change the fact that I love Bowen where she is. Hell she still has almost 4 years of office term, that’s plenty of time who knows what maybe open)

    2. This seat is likely to change after redistricting why Bowen waste her time energy running in a seat that could be potentially different in 2012

    So that’s my two cents there

  11. He now has all states except Alaska up. Before, there were four states that he was waiting on block group data for because voting district data wasn’t available. Two of them were Oregon and Kentucky. Does anyone recall what the other two were?

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