By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/
It is the June, 2012. The Republican candidate, recent winner of the party’s presidential nomination, rises up to deliver a triumphant victory speech. He launches a full-throated defense of conservatism, inserts a few sly attacks on the Democratic president, and thanks his opponents for endorsing him.
Just six months ago nobody had heard about him. Yet then he won the Iowa caucuses, shocking everybody in the political world. New Hampshire followed, then a string of victories that utterly defeated his remaining opposition. Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee never stood a chance.
How likely is this to happen?
More below.
Well, it is certainly within the bounds of conceivability – although admittedly somewhat unlikely. There are several factors that ought to be considered.
Firstly, there is the state of the current Republican field itself. This is a surprisingly weak selection. There are a number of potentially strong candidates out there. The problem is that none of them are running.
Unlike most previous contests, there is no obvious front-runner such as Governors George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan. Former Governor Mitt Romney is the one who best fits the definition. But Mr. Romney’s political skills are uncommonly weak; there is something about him (and this is a personal characteristic, not his Mormonism) that just turns-off voters.
So, unlike previous nominations, there is still plenty of space for a surprise Republican candidate to enter.
What about historical precedent? Here the picture is still pretty good. History is full of surprise candidates taking the nomination by storm. The most recent instance is, of course, the president himself (although he was actually pretty well known amongst the Beltway before 2008).
Even more encouraging might be example of President Jimmy Carter. Nobody, not even those immersed in politics, had heard of the peanut farmer before he ran for president. As late as January 1976 – the equivalent of January 2012 today – only 4% of Democrats chose him as their candidate. But Mr. Carter won the Iowa primary through retail politics, and then a string of other small primaries to build momentum.
There are other examples: Senator John Kerry in 2004, Governor Bill Clinton in 1992, and arguably Governor Mike Dukakis in 1988. These should hearten an ambitious yet unknown Republican.
On the other hand, all these examples come on the Democratic side. For whatever reason, political unknowns haven’t been as successful in the Republican Party. The last time the Republican frontrunner lost was in 1964, when Senator Barry Goldwater won the nomination (probably not the most inspiring model). Perhaps there is something in the nature of conservatism that is less attracted to exciting, new candidates of change.
At the moment, however, the chances that an unknown Republican will win the nomination better than they have been since – well – 1964.
you have there was an incumbent Governor or Senator. And today there is much more early speculation and profiles on most possible candidates.
People like Pawlenty and Barbour and Thune and Jindal would have had 1% name recognition in 1980 at this point.
On a more serious note, would Jimmy Carter have made your list of 25 people in 1975? Would Bill Clinton in 1991? What about Mike Dukakis in 1987?
I sincerely wonder about this question, because I simply don’t know about the political climate back then. There’s a difference between people the public hasn’t heard of, and people even political experts like us haven’t thought of. Did political experts imagine Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Mike Dukakis becoming president at this period before their respective presidential elections? I honestly don’t know, and although I’ve done some research I’m still missing answers.
The Republican Party prefers to nominate big names in the party, taking chances isn’t what they do.
When you, I, and everyone else says a “nobody,” they mean someone that is not currently on the radar, someone not frequently brought up. But in reality, this person isn’t a nobody. This person will be a public figure, someone that has almost certainly run for office in some capacity before. If you created the most expansive list possible, you’d probably get about 500 names, between all of the current and recent congressman, senators, and governors, as well as some random person like a military general or celebrity. But of course, that list would include people that would never ever be on a ticket. Reduce that 500-person list to 100 people, and it’s still too big. Get it down to 25 or 15 people and then you might have a reasonable list.
The point I’m trying to make is that there’s really a very small list of people that could be considered plausible presidential candidates. At this point, I think we’ve heard about almost everyone they could run, especially if you include those potential candidates that have made small noise about running but that virtually nobody is talking about, like Alabama Governor Bob Riley. Run down the list of senators and governors that might run, but don’t include ones like John Thune or Rick Perry that have ruled it out. Stretch your imagination and consider both the big states and the small ones.
Now, tell me, what names have you come up with?
The reason they are talking up people like Rubio and Christie is that they don’t have anyone else. And unless there’s someone that I am simply not remembering, that means we are with left with the people currently running.
Apparently he is closest to Romney in the NH poll PPP will release tomorrow. Seriously.
While there’s the recent PPP poll where his favorability is comparable to the most liked of the current R candidates, he’s a northener with Tea Party appeal.
Sure Ds are energized against Walker, but not to the extent as they would be against a Palin or a Gingrich.
He was on the cover of Time magazine-a big deal in those days–in 1972.
My personal pick, as a GOP devotee, is Piyush Amrit “Bobby” Jindal. Now before you begin to laugh, hear me out. Yes, that speech was terrible, and he’s acknowledged that he botched it (I read his book), but he was originally picked to deliver it for a reason. Several, actually. Agree with him or not, you have to admit his resume is impressive: former Louisiana Secretary of Health and Hospitals, former president of the University of Louisiana System, former Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services, former Congressman, and current Governor of Louisiana. Did I mention that he’s only 39? He would have more experience than Obama did in 2008, he’s known as a rock-ribbed conservative, he’s Catholic (hello, Rustbelt), his healthcare expertise fits the current debate, and he happens to not be white (which in the current American lexicon reduces the the possible effectiveness of the race card).
17, Male, Conservative Republican, TN-07 born and raised