Welcome to my first diary, I altered the numbering of the congressional district to be geographically oriented. The goal of this diary is to produce an 8-0 Maryland delegation. After playing with the map for a few weeks, I produced 7 districts that are Democratic and another district for former Congressman Frank Kratovil. The easiest way to make the district 8-0 is to split the Eastern Shore. Originally I had a 6-0-2 map in which the 1st District was slightly McCain and the 6th District was slightly Obama, after editing, they both became more Democratic. I have have also tried to clean-up the look of the current 2nd&3rd Districts.
1st District: open (blue)
Democrat: frm. Rep. Frank Kratovil?
Advantage: Tossup, Likely D w/Kratovil
2008 results: Obama 50.1% McCain 48.0% Other 1.9%
Race: 73.6% W,15.8% AA,5.6% H,3.5% A,1.5% O
2nd District (current 5th): Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (green)
Democrat: Steny Hoyer
Advantage: Safe Dem
2008 results: Obama 59.8% McCain 39.1% Other 1.1%
Race: 60.6% W,32.0% AA,3.2% H,2.2% A,2.0% O
3rd District : Rep. John Sarbanes (purple)
Democrat: John Sarbanes
Advantage: Safe Dem
2008 results: Obama 58.2% McCain 39.8% Other 2.0%
Race: 67.5% W,21.2% AA,4.9% H,4.2% A,2.1% O
4th District (current 2nd): Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D), Rep. Andy Harris (R)? (red)
Democrat: Dutch Ruppersberger
Advantage: Safe Dem
2008 results: Obama 58.9% McCain 39.1% Other 2.0%
Race: 65.0% W,26.4% AA,3.3% H,3.4% A,1.8% O
5th District (current 7th): Rep. Elijah Cummings (yellow) VRA
Democrat: Elijah Cummings
Advantage: Safe Dem
2008 results: Obama 77.0% McCain 21.7% Other 1.3%
Race: 33.9% W,56.2% AA,2.7% H,5.3% A,1.7% O
6th District (current 4th): Rep. Donna Edwards* (teal) VRA
*lives outside current 4th and new 6th
Democrat: Donna Edwards
Advantage: Safe Dem
2008 results: Obama 77.9% McCain 21.1% Other 1.0%
Race: 30.7% W,53.0% AA,10.2% H,4.6% A,1.5% O
7th District (current 6th) : Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R)(gray)
Democrat: Jen Dougherty? thoughts?
Advantage: Likely Dem
2008 results: Obama 55.2% McCain 42.9% Other 1.9%
Race: 64.6% W,11.6% AA,11.3% H,10.6% A,1.8% O
8th District: Rep. Chris Van Hollen (light purple)
Democrat: Chris Van Hollen
Advantage: Safe Dem
2008 results: Obama 61.6% McCain 36.8% Other 1.6%
Race: 65.8% W,13.8% AA,12.2% H,6.5% A,1.7% O
Thoughts on winners and losers in this map?
Errors?
Who would run in the new 7th?
Who would be unhappy with this map?
Rather than going into Howard County, where the white voters tend to be moderately liberal, you get more bang for your buck by running Cummings’s district into Carroll County, northern Baltimore County, and northern Harford County. This way, the extremely conservative whites get diluted in a black majority district (and let’s face it: in Maryland, any black majority district is guaranteed to elect a Democrat, even if it goes down to 65% Obama), and the not-so-conservative whites in Howard can be used to strengthen your 7th district.
it’s possible to keep the Eastern Shore intact and still make an Obama 53-54 district.
Me, for one. You put my dark blue hometown (in mid-Montgomery County) in a district with a bunch of deep red territory along the northern border of the state. I know that MoCo and Frederick City are supposed to make the district blue, and probably would in most cases, but in a 2010 or 1994 type situation (not that I expect another soon, but you never know), and you may well have a lot of angry folks in the I-270 corridor stuck with a Tea Partier.
Is still this one by Silver Spring.
It’s kinda messy, but it works. We aren’t sure if they’ll go whole hog, but we know for sure that Harris is going to be the primary target of MD Dems.
As we know, these district Democratic percentages are based on President Obama’s 2008 numbers. What about Ehrlich-O’Malley 2010 numbers? Just guessing here, but Ehrlich probably won two or three of these districts. I’m just afraid the Democratic vote might be spread too thin. Maryland does have a recent history of electing moderate Republicans such as Connie Morella, Helen Delich-Bentley and Wayne Gilchrest. Therefore, it’s quite possible we could see a rebirth of moderate Republicans by spreading Democratic votes way to thin. On the other hand, most of these newly crafted districts are likely going to have well establish Democratic vote getters except for the the first and seventh-both ripe for moderate GOPers. I hope my analysis is wrong . . .
but I find it reprehensible to try and lock Republicans and conservatives totally out of representation in the state of Maryland; especially when there are a considerable number of hard-right areas along the northern end of the state.
My point has always been that having 6 safe Democratic seats, one swingish, Kratovil friendly seat, and one safe Republican seat, was, while still unfair to Republicans, the least grotesque and most ethical solution to take, (while continuing to be favorable to Democrats by helping them pick up a seat).