Time to add another incumbent to the big board of House retirements. This edition: immigration crusader Tom Tancredo:
Rep. Tom Tancredo plans to leave the U.S. House of Representatives at the end of 2008, whether his longshot presidential bid is successful or not, the Rocky Mountain News reported.“It’s the fact that I really believe I have done all I can do in the House, especially about the issue about which I care greatly (immigration),” Tancredo, 61, told the newspaper Sunday night.
This is an especially tough district for Democrats: with a PVI of R+10, it voted for Bush over Kerry by a 60-39 margin in 2004. Still, stranger things have happened. In 2006, the race for Colorado’s 5th district, a highly conservative area with a PVI of R+15.7 (66/33 Bush/Kerry) became a contentious race when the Club For Growth dragged unpopular state Rep. Doug Lamborn across the finish line to win a nasty Republican primary. While that race ultimately wasn’t that close (Lamborn won with 59%), Democrat Jay Fawcett performed eight points higher than Kerry’s level.
In short: in order to have an outside chance here, Democrats should be hoping that the GOP nominates an especially ugly fundy wingnut here after a brutal primary. On second thought, I don’t see how you can get much more wingnutty than Tancredo, so maybe all this is moot…
Race Tracker: CO-06
Making the NRCC have to spend any money here would be a win to me.
Strange as it may seem, he was not seen as a batshit crazy wingnut by his district. He’s a different sort of creature, obsessed about immigration but otherwise kind of pure conservative, western style, which is distinct from the Focus on the Family types like Lamborn. I know a fair number of independents and moderate Dems who actually admire the guy for his stands on immigration. And he got a not insignificant number of non-Repub votes every time he ran. So I do think there’s a chance they will nominate someone of the Lamborn school and end up with a closer race than they bargain for. Although the leading candidate right now appears to be a fairly moderate guy with a middle of the road voting record in the state legislature.
but it looks like we’re gonna pick up Colorado Secretary of State out of the deal. Recently elected SoS Mike Coffman is set to blow away the field of Republicans in the primary.
Unfortunately, we won’t actually get the office until after he wins in 2008 (when Dem Gov Ritter appoints a new SoS), so he’ll be there for the length of the 08 presidential race. Still, it’s better than nothing.
Unfortunately, Coffman is considered highly “electable”, so we may see him against Udall in 2014, once we’ve re-gerrymandered CD-06 for the 2012 election. If he’s really ambitious we could see him against Salazar in 2010. But this is getting a little ahead of ourselves.